The Miami Open women's singles championship matches will be played Saturday at Hard Rock Stadium. This will be the 13th career meeting between world No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka and fourth-ranked American Coco Gauff, who have split their previous 12 encounters.
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All women's singles matches on the WTA Tour are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities in Saturday's championship match.
Miami Open Tennis Picks: Sabalenka vs. Gauff
Aryna Sabalenka (-306) vs. Coco Gauff (+239)
I predicted Gauff over Sabalenka in the final before the tournament started, and there is little reason to change that pick at this point. The previously struggling Gauff has gained confidence and rhythm as the tournament has progressed and is coming off arguably her best performance of the year in a 6-1, 6-1 semifinal drubbing of Karolina Muchova after needing three sets in each of the four preceding matches. Sabalenka's consistent deep runs at big tournaments over the past few years set her apart from the rest of the WTA Tour, but Gauff has demonstrated an equally high ceiling, and both of the 22-year-old American's Grand Slam titles have been sealed with victories over Sabalenka in the championship match. The environment here is likely to resemble the 2023 U.S. Open final, during which the energy from a partisan American crowd helped Gauff defeat Sabalenka in similar hard-court conditions. Gauff's victory over Sabalenka in the French Open final last year should only strengthen the South Florida native's conviction in this matchup while adding a layer of doubt for the top-ranked Belarusian, who hasn't always brought her A-game in the biggest matches.
Sabalenka has dominated this season en route to a 22-1 record. The lone loss came in the Australian Open championship match against Elena Rybakina, but Sabalenka got a modicum of revenge by beating Rybakina 3-6, 6-3, 7-6 (6) in the final of Indian Wells, then notched a more straightforward victory over Rybakina in the semifinals here, 6-4, 6-3. In 20 matches against players other than Rybakina this year, Sabalenka has yet to drop a set, so Gauff will certainly have her work cut out for her. Sabalenka won the most recent matchup against Gauff at the 2025 WTA Finals, which drew their head-to-head level at 6-6 overall and gave Sabalenka a 5-4 hard-court advantage. Sabalenka is more aggressive, which should allow her to control the majority of the points in fast hard-court conditions, but that's a double-edged sword, as taking more risks also opens up more opportunities for errors to creep into her game, which has happened at times in high-pressure situations, such as the two Grand Slam final losses to Gauff. The American underdog should fare just fine in neutral rallies, but getting points started on the right foot with a strong serving day will be essential for Gauff, who is still trying to solve some issues with her second serve, having double faulted 35 times in five matches en route to the final.
Miami Open Women's Final Prediction: Gauff def. Sabalenka 2-6, 7-6, 6-4
