The Masters Betting Preview
Hello, friends!
The best week of the year is upon us as we head to Augusta, Georgia for the 90th edition of The Masters. No fewer than 91 players -- including 18 past champions -- will head down Magnolia Lane, a group headlined by two-time Masters champion Scottie Scheffler, the betting favorite at +495.
The storylines are plentiful. Can Rory McIlroy become the first back-to-back champion since Tiger Woods in 2002? Jon Rahm and Bryson DeChambeau head over from LIV and enter in great form. Plus, a number of young golfers with multiple PGA Tour victories -- Cameron Young, Ludvig Aberg and Akshay Bhatia -- are playing well as they pursue their first major.
Last year, McIlroy -- at +650 -- completed the career Grand Slam with a birdie on the first playoff hole to take down Justin Rose.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 7:00 PM ET Tuesday.
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Course Overview
Par 72, 7,565 yards
These are the average rankings of Masters champions since 2021:
- SG: Off-the-Tee: 7.4
- SG: Approach: 6.2
- SG: Around-the-Green: 4.6
- SG: Putting: 24.6
- SG: Tee-to-Green: 1.4
- Driving Distance: 9.6
- Driving Accuracy: 23.2
A course and tradition that stands out above all others, Augusta National's beauty, pristine conditions and history are impossible to match. Amen Corner is my favorite part of the course - a challenging three-hole stretch starting with the par-4 11th with water in play on approach that has ended many players' chances to win. The par-3 12th over water has also derailed rounds, but if players can escape those two holes, eagle is in play on the dogleg left par-5 13th. Overall, players are faced with generous landing zones off the tee as the fairways average nearly 55 yards wide and are surrounded by minimal rough. The main thing you want to avoid is extremely wayward drives that will bring trees and pine straw into play. As evidenced by the stats above, distance is the premium over accuracy, and we want drivers that aren't really short or very inaccurate. A difficult venue with the winning score being between 10-to-12 under since 2021, players are going to miss greens here, so I'm boosting golfers with strong short games. I'll also be targeting good iron players from 150-200 yards and those that rank well in par-5 scoring.
Best Ball Strikers
These five golfers, on a per-round basis, have gained the most strokes off the tee and on approach combined across their last 20 rounds:
- Collin Morikawa: 1.76
- Rory McIlroy: 1.75
- Matt Fitzpatrick: 1.65
- Akshay Bhatia: 1.48
- Cameron Young: 1.47
Morikawa tops the list as on paper he appears to be in excellent form with a win and two top-10s thereafter, all three of which came in signature events. However, a back injury during a practice swing on the second hole of THE PLAYERS caused him to withdraw, and he hasn't played since. He's taking things day-by-day and only hit 34 balls on the range Tuesday while not hitting anything over 280 yards. Morikawa looks limited and the oddsmakers have dropped him to 31-1 to win. Meanwhile, Bhatia ranks fourth on the list and has elevated his game this year with five consecutive PGA Tour top-20s including a marquee win at Bay Hill. Most fans will remember his superb short game that week, in which he led the field in SG: Around-the-Green and putting. His ball striking, and in particular his iron play has also been in good form, and with the success lefties have had around Augusta, it's difficult to overlook him at 56-1.
Augusta Course History
These five golfers have the lowest scoring average at Augusta National over the last five years:
- Scottie Scheffler: 70.3
- Ludvig Aberg: 70.4
- Collin Morikawa: 71.2
- Patrick Reed: 71.4
- Xander Schauffele: 71.4
Course history tends to play a bigger factor here than anywhere else, making Scheffler the golfer to beat once again. In addition to his two green jackets, he finished fourth here last year and has never finished outside the top-20 across six appearances. The question marks are certainly there when it comes to his recent form, however, as he's gone without a top-10 in three consecutive tournaments for the first time since 2022. Still, it's hard to doubt him, and his odds have dipped accordingly. A little farther down the betting board we find Schauffele, who is halfway through the career grand slam. His results here have been solid, having made 7-of-8 cuts with five top-10s including three straight. Schauffele has mainly done it with his iron play, gaining 1.1 strokes on approach per round across his last 12 rounds at Augusta.
The Masters Bets: Outright Picks
Ludvig Aberg (+1650)
Following a slow start to the year in which an illness led to a withdrawal and a missed cut, Aberg has turned the corner since the start of the Florida Swing with three consecutive top-5 finishes. Only Scheffler bested him in his debut two years ago, and Aberg followed that up with a solo seventh in 2025. He's a great pivot off the clear top four favorites.
Tommy Fleetwood (+2250)
Fleetwood has elevated his game in majors, where he's posted seven top-5s including two runner-ups. His best finish he came two years when he was T3, and he enters in good form with four top-10s across five starts this season. Fleetwood led the field in SG: Tee-to-Green at TPC Sawgrass.
Min Woo Lee (+3400)
Lee has had a phenomenal year, notably finishing one back in a signature event at Pebble Beach and was also T6 at Bay Hill and T3 in his title defense in Houston two weeks ago. The 27-year-old has a modest two top-25s across four trips to Augusta, but it's hard to overlook him as he's realizing his potential and playing the best golf of his career.
The Masters Bets: Placement Wagers
Kurt Kitayama
Top-10 Finish: +495
Coming off a top-10 hit with Matt Wallace last week, I'll start these bets off this week with Kitayama, who stands out with his ball striking by ranking 11th in SG: Approach and 16th in Driving Distance – All Drives. The veteran had a T2 at Riviera earlier this year.
Justin Thomas
Top-5 Finish: +830
I think Thomas will be overlooked by many as he hasn't played his best here lately, but he does have two top-10s at Augusta and had a stretch of six straight top-25s. His lack off accuracy off the tee won't get him in trouble as often as other places, and the iron play and short game strengths play well here.
Haotong Li
Top-10 Finish: +1075
Li is my long-shot dark horse. He has two top-5s in majors and four top-20s which stands out for a player that hasn't consistently been in the top-100 in his career. He made the cut in both of his previous Masters appearances as well. Li tends to be boom-or-bust but the ceiling potential makes him intriguing.
The Masters Bets: Head-to-Head Matchups
Jake Knapp (-105) over Jason Day
I'm surprised Day is the favorite in this matchup considering Knapp has five top-10s this year (two in signature events) compared to Day's two. Experience at Augusta is likely factoring in too much, and Day has only one top-25 here since 2020. With Knapp we get the much longer driver, better iron player and putter.
Nick Taylor (-110) over Ryan Gerard
Gerard will be making his first Masters appearance and his below average short game and strength of driving accuracy doesn't make him stand out as a first-timer to target especially since he's missed two his last three cuts. I'll side with the veteran in Taylor, a consistent golfer that's made 8-of-9 cuts this year. He ranks 34th in SG: Approach and eighth around the green this year.
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