NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Preview: South Region Outlook & Predictions

March Madness 2026 continues ahead to the Sweet 16, and four teams remain in the South region. Jesse Siegel examines the matchups and makes his Elite Eight picks.

South Region Sweet 16 Preview
East Region Sweet 16 Preview
Midwest Region Sweet 16 Preview
West Region Sweet 16 Preview

Site: Houston, TX

Tip-off: Thursday

The South Region has a decidedly Big Ten feel heading into the Sweet 16.  In fact, three of the four remaining schools in this region hail from the conference.  The South boasted a couple of minor upsets in the Round of 64, though No. 9 Iowa's startling upset of defending champion and region No. 1 seed Florida in the Round of 32 is arguably the stunner of the tournament thus far.  The Hawkeyes raced out to an early lead, then held off a furious Florida comeback, with a three-pointer by junior Alvaro Folgueiras with less than five seconds remaining proving to be the difference.

Iowa will face No. 4 Nebraska, which survived a thriller of its own in the Round of 32.  The Huskers posted the program's first NCAA Tournament win in the opener against Troy, then survived a buzzer-beating heave from Vandy en route to the first Sweet 16 in school history.  The teams split the season-series, with both teams holding serve on their respective home courts.  Nebraska has never been to the Elite 8, while Iowa's last trip was almost 40 years ago in 1987.

The third Big Ten squad is Illinois, as the Illini found little resistance against Penn and then VCU, posting 20-plus point margins of victory en route to the Sweet 16.  Illinois has had the easiest path of the four remaining programs, having only to beat two double-digit seeds.  They'll face a huge test in the Sweet 16, though, as No. 2 Houston has been arguably the most dominant team in the tournament thus far.  The Cougars had little difficulty in winning their two contests, both of which came by a staggering 31 points apiece. With the clashes in the South now set, let's take a deeper look at the upcoming games.

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No. 4 Nebraska vs. No. 9 Iowa

Key Matchup: Nebraska's Sam Hoiberg vs. Iowa's Bennett Stirtz.  Perhaps the most impressive part of the two wins by Iowa is that their star player Stirtz did not shoot the ball particularly well.  A 20-point scorer during the year, Stirtz played all 40 minutes in both contests for the Hawkeyes, but averaged just 14.5 points per tilt.  He is shooting just 27.3-percent from the floor, including a putrid 15.8-percent from downtown.  It feels like only a matter of time before Stirtz rights the ship, and it may be up to the coach's son on Nebraska to keep Stirtz off-balance.  Hoiberg leads the 'Huskers with two steals per game, had five in the previous matchup against Iowa, and limited Stirtz to just 11 points.

Nebraska will Win IF: the 'Huskers win the rebounding battle.  Though neither squad is a standout on the boards, Iowa pummeled Nebraska on the glass in the Hawkeyes' 57-52 triumph over the Cornhuskers earlier in the season.  Meanwhile, in the contest Nebraska claimed, the final rebounding tallies were much closer.  Iowa was even with Florida on the glass despite the Gators possessing a huge size advantage in the frontcourt.

Iowa will Win IF: the Hawkeyes limit turnovers.  In their loss to Nebraska, Iowa turned the ball over a staggering 19 times.  Meanwhile, the Hawkeyes had just 10 turnovers in their shocking win over Florida.  Since Iowa will look to slow the pace down and limit possessions, the Hawkeyes must place even more emphasis on valuing each possession.

Player to Watch: Pryce Sandfort, F, Nebraska.  This is something of a revenge game for Sandfort, even though the schools have played twice already this season.  Sandfort spent the first two years of his collegiate career at Iowa, mostly in a reserve role.  The move to Nebraska has turned him into a star, as Sandfort is averaging a robust 17.9 points per contest, more than doubling his previous high.  Sandfort may not harbor any will towards his former school, but it certainly would be extra special to eliminate the Hawkeyes en route to Nebraska's first Elite 8 appearance.

Prediction: Nebraska was better during the regular season, hence the much higher seed, but Iowa might be playing better right now.  The fact that the Hawkeyes' best player went 0-for-9 from three-point land, and they still beat No. 1 Florida, speaks volumes about the team component as well as the coaching and scheme.  Both teams are solid defensively, and neither team scores a ton, so this figures to be a low-scoring, high drama, close matchup.  Nebraska has more talent on paper, but Iowa is playing as cohesive and connected as any squad in the country.  The Hawkeyes win a squeaker with a big game finally coming from Stirtz.

Sweet 16 Pick: Iowa

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No. 2 Houston vs. No. 3 Illinois

Key Matchup: Houston's Kingston Flemings vs. Illinois' Keaton Wagler. This sensational matchup pits two dazzling freshmen against each other.  Both lead their respective squads in scoring and dishing, serving as the offensive catalysts and floor generals.  Flemings is explosive, lightning-quick with the ball and always seems to make the right pass.  Wagler is a bit taller and a slightly better outside shooter, but also possesses standout basketball IQ.  Both point guards could be lottery picks in this June's NBA Draft should they choose to go that route.  This clash should be incredibly entertaining to watch unfold.

Houston will Win IF: the Cougars can stifle the potent Illini offense.  This contest is a clash of styles. Houston is arguably the top defensive squad in the nation, and limited its opponents in the tourney thus far to a putrid average of 52 points per tilt.  Meanwhile, Illinois has averaged nearly 85 points per contest this season.  Houston has only allowed more than 85 points in a game once this season.  Something has got to give, though a lower-scoring battle would certainly appear to favor the Cougars.

Illinois will Win IF: the Illini can win the rebounding battle convincingly.  Illinois is one of the better rebounding teams in the country, while that has been one of Houston's few issues this season.  The Ivisic brothers and freshman David Mirkovic give the Illini a tremendous height advantage in the frontcourt.  Illinois will need second-chance points on offense as well as to clean up the glass on the defensive end to limit additional opportunities for Houston.

Player to Watch: Chris Cenac, F/C, Houston – Flemings gets the pub, and rightly so, but the ascendance of another freshman in the form of Cenac has been equally crucial to the success of the Cougars this season.  Cenac dominated the glass with 18 rebounds in the opening round win over No. 15 Idaho, then was the second-leading scorer for the squad in the victory over Texas A&M.  The Illini are one of the top rebounding teams in the nation, so Cenac and frontcourt mate Joseph Tugler will need to assert themselves on the glass.

Prediction: The additions of Flemings and Cenac to a team that went to the National Championship game last season provides a scary scenario for opposing squads.  Add in that this is basically a home game for the Cougars, and Illinois is going to have its hands full in Houston.  The Illini struggled against better competition down the stretch, and only had to beat the No. 14 and No. 11 seeds to get to the Sweet 16.  Offense gets the fame, but defense wins the game.  The calling card of the Cougars should carry Houston over the high-scoring Illini and into the Elite 8.

Sweet 16 Pick: Houston

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