NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Preview: West Region Outlook & Predictions

March Madness 2026 moves onward to the Sweet 16, and four teams remain in the West region. Ryan Pohle examines the matchups and makes his Elite Eight picks.

West Region Sweet 16 Preview
South Region Sweet 16 Preview
East Region Sweet 16 Preview
Midwest Region Sweet 16 Preview

Site: San Jose, California

Tip-off: Thursday

This may be the West region, but we've got a pair of teams east of the Mississippi making the trip to California. Purdue represents the Big Ten, while the SEC has a pair of teams still in the region. The only real surprise here is Texas, who had to win one more game than everyone else to get here. And then of course there is Arizona out of the Big 12, who currently has the second-best odds to win it all, slightly behind Michigan. 

At 34-2, Arizona has been dominant all season long. The Big 12 regular season and conference tournament champions faced a challenge from Utah State, but never trailed and pulled away late to win by 12. Next up for the Wildcats is an Arkansas team that has potentially four NBA picks come July and was well tested in the non-conference part of its schedule, with single-digit losses to Michigan State, Duke and Houston to prepare them for this showdown.

At the bottom of the bracket, Purdue is one of three teams in the West region that won its conference tournament and is playing with a lot of momentum. Can the only double-digit seed still remaining get in its way? If you read my preview last week, you'll remember that I had Gonzaga as my biggest bust. Is Texas for real, or did it take advantage of a favorable draw that also saw them get past a BYU squad that wasn't the same without Richie Saunders?

With the matchups in the South now set, let's take a deeper look at the upcoming games.

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No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 5 Arkansas

Key Matchup: Arizona's Jaden Bradley vs. Arkansas' Darius Acuff. It's a showdown between two elite PGs who both earned their respective conference's Player of the Year honors. For what Acuff may lack on the defensive end, he more than makes up for it offensively, averaging 30.2 points across a five-game stretch since the start of the SEC Tournament. Meanwhile, Arizona relied much more heavily on Bradley than usual against Utah State, where he supplied 18 points, albeit on 6-of-16 (37.5 percent) shooting. 

Arizona will Win IF: It imposes its will in the frontcourt. Arizona isn't one of these teams that is reliant on perimeter shooting. In fact, only 20.6 percent of its scoring comes from three - 358th in D-I. The Wildcats attack the rim, draw fouls and rebound well. It's not all that much different in the way that Florida played, who dominated Arkansas 111-77 last month. It's unclear if PF Nick Pringle will return after missing the first two tournament games, but 6-foot-10 Malique Ewin has filled in nicely.

Arkansas will Win IF: It limits second-chance points. The Razorbacks rank 53rd in defensive efficiency, but one way it can help itself on that end is by not letting Arizona get easy putbacks. That's easier said than done against an Arizona squad that ranks fourth in offensive rebounding percentage and has a +11.1 rebounding margin on the season. I think the Wildcats win convincingly if Koa Peat and 7-2 center Motiejus Krivas have their way on the glass.

Player to Watch: Brayden Burries, G, Arizona. Dating back to the Big 12 Tournament final, Burries has scored at least 16 points in all three games and you can make the argument that he's been Arizona's best player despite Bradley's accolades. A likely lottery pick this summer, the 6-4 freshman SG has been incredibly efficient with shooting splits of 57/39/80. Arkansas has defended the three well this season, so expect Burries to have to put the ball on the floor.

Prediction: On one hand, Arkansas is one of the hottest teams remaining, having won the SEC Tournament while being 7-0 in March. However, their best win during that stretch was over fifth-seeded Vanderbilt before previously losing by 34 to Florida. After all, Coach Cal hasn't been to the Elite Eight since pre-COVID, and while this team is talented, it lacks much resistance on the defensive end. Look for Arizona to take advantage with its ability to score in multiple ways while imposing its length on the defensive end. 

Sweet 16 Pick: Arizona

For a full breakdown of the NCAA Tournament by region, check out our March Madness preview series on RotoWire.

No. 11 Texas vs. No. 2 Purdue

Key Matchup: Texas' Dailyn Swain vs. Purdue's Trey Kaufman-Renn. A battle in the frontcourt between the two power forwards will be a key piece in this game. The Longhorns have been able to survive despite modest production from Swain, who is averaging only 12.7 points on 46.4 percent shooting through three tournament games – both down significantly from his season averages. Texas needs him to get going in order to get past their toughest opponent yet. Kaufman-Renn will draw the assignment, and Purdue leaned on its senior more than usual Sunday as he saw 35 minutes for just the second time this season. Dating back to the Big Ten Tournament, he's averaging 17.5 points and 7.7 boards on 64.4 percent shooting and is looking more like the player we saw last season.

Purdue will Win IF: The defense matches the offense. Purdue is led by their No. 1 ranked offense, per KenPom, and that makes it a tough team to beat if it gets similar production on the other end. Over the seven-game winning streak, Purdue is averaging 1.07 points per possession but are allowing 1.29 across eight losses. Texas hasn't exactly been lighting up the scoreboard in the NCAA Tournament, averaging 73.7 ppg. 

Texas will Win IF: It wins the turnover battle. I look back to Purdue's first loss of the season when Iowa State beat them by 23 and caused 15 turnovers (average nine per game, 11th in D-I). Texas is going to have to make Purdue uncomfortable. Kaufman-Renn and Oscar Cluff are efficient post players, and the Longhorns can't let that duo get into one-and-one battles. Texas could also use some easy baskets as the half-court offense can get stagnant at times.

Player to Watch: Matas Vokietaitis, C, Texas. The 7-foot center has been a key presence during its NCAA Tournament run with a 31.8 percent usage rate, and most notably posted 23 points and 16 boards in the win over BYU. He struggled with free throws in that game but is 67 percent from the line on the season and hit a couple big ones down the stretch against Gonzaga. Foul trouble has been an issue for him, and Texas will need him to avoid that and play around 35 minutes without having a notable big off the bench.

Prediction: It was an exceptional first weekend for the Big Ten, who has six teams through to the Sweet 16. I expect Purdue to keep that momentum rolling for the conference against an inferior opponent, as it has the edge on both sides of the ball. The experience of having four senior starters, three of which have played together for four years will be a key factor. While Braden Smith has been inconsistent shooting the ball, his 10.3 assists over the last six games keeps the offense running and helps it avoid stretches without scoring. It has been a nice run for Texas, but the 'Cinderella?' story ends Thursday.

Sweet 16 Pick: Purdue

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