NFL Picks Week 16: Chalkboard Pick'em Selections and Strategy

Ryan Belongia is ready with his Week 16 Chalkboard Pick 'em picks. Belongia likes Chris Olave to shine, especially with a fellow Saints wide receiver out.
NFL Picks Week 16: Chalkboard Pick'em Selections and Strategy

Each week of the season I will look at matchups, usage, pace of play and the injury report to highlight my favorite "higher", and sometimes "lower" picks, on Chalkboard

RotoWire has the tools and data to help you make picks of your own.

To get started playing Chalkboard, follow the link and use promo code WIRE for a bonus. 

Higher

QB Bryce Young vs. TB - higher than 207.5 pass yards

WR Jalen Coker vs. TB - higher than 36.5 rec yards, 3.5 receptions

Underdog quarterbacks with favorable matchups will be a major theme of this article. The props are lower and the likely game script sees them playing from behind with a potential for garbage time. Bryce Young has a matchup that we frequently target against the Buccaneers pass funnel. We just saw them allow 373 yards to Kirk Cousins last week, and 301 to Jacoby Brissett before that. First place in the division is on the line, and the Panthers have shown up in tough matchups all season, as they seem to play to their competition. Sorely missed while injured, Coker has at least four catches and 52+ receiving yards in three of the last four games. He plays in the slot, but runs deep routes as well, and he has 30+ yard touchdown catches in back-to-back games. 

QB Aaron Rodgers at DET - higher than 224.5 pass yards

WR DK Metcalf at DET - higher than 60.5 rec yards, 4.5 receptions

RB Kenneth Gainwell at DET - higher than 4.5 receptions, 27.5 rec yards

There's always potential for a shootout inside the dome at Ford Field, especially considering Detroit's banged up defense has been one of the worst unit in the league against the pass over the last month. In their last three games at home, the Lions have allowed 30 points to the Cowboys, 31 to the Packers and 27 to Jameis Winston and the Giants. They gave up 326+ passing yards in each of them. 

Aaron Rodgers, on the other hand, is playing his best football in some time, and he has helped the Steelers into first place. He threw for over 200 yards in three quarters against the Dolphins last week, and 284 against the Ravens the week before. Gainwell has been a weapon out of the backfield, with 6+ catches in four of the last five. Pittsburgh doesn't have a No. 2 WR after Metcalf and Rodgers has been relying on quick targets to Gainwell and his TEs to combat the pass rush. As for Metcalf, his ceiling games have been fewer and farther between, but we just saw him with seven catches on 12 targets for 148 yards against Baltimore two weeks ago. This is a similar spot where Pittsburgh will likely be forced to throw all game. 

QB Brady Cook at NO - higher than 170.5 pass yards, 0.5 TDs

WR Adonai Mitchell at NO - higher than 41.5 rec yards, 3.5 receptions

I don't know much about Cook, but he looked OK in his first career start against Jacksonville last week as he completed 22-of-33 passes for 176 yards. I'm highlighting him this week because matchups in New Orleans have become one of the more attractive spots to target. Kellen Moore has the Saints offense playing a fast pace, and their up-tempo style usually results in more possessions, plays and points. Mitchell has really stepped up in the absence of Garrett Wilson. He caught seven of 10 targets for 69 yards and a touchdown last week, proving that his eight catches on 12 targets for 102 yards three weeks ago was no fluke. 

WR Chris Olave vs. NYJ - higher than 63.5 rec yards, 5.5 receptions

On the opposite side of Cook and Mitchell, Olave has a plus matchup against a Jets defense that traded away top CB Sauce Gardner. Saints slot WR Devaughn Vele is also out, which could lead to even more volume for Olave, who's coming off six catches on nine targets for 85 yards in last week's win over the Panthers. 

WR Xavier Worthy at TEN - higher than 35.5 rec yards, 3.5 receptions

TE Travis Kelce at TEN - higher than 4.5 receptions; 45.5 rec yards

The Chiefs will be without No. 1 WR Rashee Rice (concussion) and they have a matchup against one of the league's worst pass defenses. They'll also be missing Patrick Mahomes, but backup Gardner Minshew has proved more than capable over the years. Kelce finished with seven catches on nine targets last week after Minshew locked onto him in the fourth quarter. Worthy is the type of player who can beat his yardage prop with one catch but he's been lacking the target share since Rice returned. I'm willing to bet on the increased opportunity and great matchup. 

ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Ryan is the top-ranked DFS soccer player on RG, reigning King of the Pitch Champion at DraftKings and 2021 finalist for FSWA's Soccer Writer of the Year.
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