DraftKings NFL Week 16: Top Picks and Lineup Strategy

Sunday's Week 16 slate includes 11 games and features Steelers-Lions as the highest-totaled matchup. Falcons-Cardinals will be a good one too as the Jacoby Brissett express rolls on. The popular lineup construction will see most saving salary at QB and WR in order to spend on RB. 

In this breakdown, I've highlighted the top options for cash games and included some of my favorite ideas for GPPs. As usual, leverage and correlation are paramount to winning large-field tournaments and important to prioritize when building lineups. For cash games, play the best chalk and, when in doubt, follow ownership, which you can get an idea of from our NFL DFS optimizer.

Note: All prices listed come from DraftKings, but most of the logic can be applied to other sites across the DFS industry. Discussion is limited to players from the "main slate" of games kicking off at 1 p.m., 4:05 p.m. and 4:25 p.m. EDT on Sunday. The strategy below is meant for large-field tournaments, where payouts typically are limited to ~20 percent of lineups, with the majority concentrated at the very top.

The Games

Point-Per-Dollar Value

These are the players with the best projections relative to their salaries — good plays both for cash games and large-field tournaments. While we don't want our GPP lineups to look like cash-game lineups top to bottom, there's nothing wrong with using a few chalky plays.

• RB Jahmyr Gibbs vs. PIT ($8,500)

Gibbs projects as the top point-per-dollar value on the board, and I wouldn't be surprised if ends up the most popular player on the slate. The Lions have a favorable home matchup and a 29.5-point implied team total. We've seen Gibbs go off for huge games in these spots recently, as he's hit 37+ DraftKings points in four of the last eight. Projection wise, the upside he offers as a receiver gives him an edge over the other elite RBs

• WR DK Metcalf at DET ($5,400)

Detroit has been awful against No. 1 WRs of late: Wan'Dale Robinson cooked them for nine catches and 156 yards, Puka Nacua went for 181 yards and CeeDee Lamb had six catches for 121 yards in less than three quarters before getting injured. That's all in the last month while the Lions have dealt with multiple injuries in the secondary. We just saw Metcalf catch seven of 12 targets for 148 against Baltimore two weeks ago, and he could be in line for similar volume Sunday in what's likely to be a trailing game script. 

Other Cash-Game Options

QB Bo Nix vs. JAX ($6,100)

QUICK LINKS

DFS Optimizer

Build hundreds of lineups in seconds

NFL Lineups

See the weekly starting lineups

Your Lineups

See your saved NFL lineups

QB C.J. Stroud vs. LV ($5,500)

QB Jacoby Brissett vs. ATL ($5,300)

QB Gardner Minshew at TEN ($4,500)

RB Bijan Robinson at ARI ($8,700)

RB Jahmyr Gibbs vs. PIT ($8,500)

RB James Cook at CLE ($7,700)

RB Bucky Irving at CAR ($6,700)

RB RJ Harvey vs. JAX ($6,200)

RB Michael Wilson vs. ATL ($5,400)

RB Aaron Jones at NYG ($5,200)

WR Ja'Marr Chase at MIA ($8,600)

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown vs. PIT ($8,400)

WR Michael Wilson vs. ATL ($6,900), if Marvin Harrison is out

WR Chris Olave vs. NYJ ($6,500)

WR Jameson Williams vs. PIT ($6,400)

WR Courtland Sutton vs. JAX ($5,700)

WR Jakobi Meyers at DEN ($5,500)

WR DK Metcalf at DET ($5,400)

WR Adonai Mitchell at NO ($4,500)

WR Xavier Worthy at TEN ($4,400)

TE Kyle Pitts at ARI ($5,000)

TE Travis Kelce at TEN ($4,700)

TE Harold Fannin vs. BUF ($4,500)

D/ST Houston Texans vs. LV ($4,000)

D/ST Buffalo Bills at CLE ($3,500)

D/ST Kansas City Chiefs at TEN ($3,300)

D/ST Cincinnati Bengals at MIA ($2,500)

D/ST New York Jets at NO ($2,100)

Passing-Game Stacks

Stacks are the centerpiece of most tournament lineups, seeking to take advantage of positive correlations between players. It rarely makes sense to use a quarterback without one or two of his pass catchers, even if the player in question scores a decent portion of his fantasy points with his legs. Ideally, a stack also includes a pass catcher from the other side of the game, hoping to take advantage of a back-and-forth shootout. (Implied team totals are listed in parentheses.)

Atlanta Falcons (25.75) at Arizona Cardinals (22.75)

Falcons

A matchup against the Cardinals has turned into the best spot in the league when targeting fantasy points. Last week, C.J. Stroud and Woody Marks were chalk at their respective positions and all of the Texans were great options, specifically because of the matchup. Atlanta is in that spot this week, and they're actually coming off a solid performance as they came back to upset Tampa Bay on Thursday night. Kirk Cousins ($4,800) finally showed some life, throwing for 373 yards and three touchdowns on his way to 30 DraftKings points. Kyle Pitts ($5,000) had a monster game, catching 11 of 12 targets for 166 yards and three scores. He will project among the top values at TE this week regardless of whether Drake London ($7,000) plays. London hasn't played since Week 11 due to a knee injury but seems to be trending in the right direction. If active, he'll be relatively low owned and good leverage in GPPs. Bijan Robinson ($8,700) will not be low owned, as he's in a fantastic spot and projects as the second-best value on the slate behind Gibbs. Pairing Robinson with either QB makes sense after he caught eight of 11 targets last game. 

Cardinals

What else can you say about Jacoby Brissett ($5,300)? He's been incredible from a DFS standpoint, topping 20 DraftKings points in all nine of his starts after succeeding in the toughest of matchups in Houston last week. Arizona has no running game and barely a defense. They play uptempo and it's made their games fruitful for fantasy points and great for stacking. The status of Marvin Harrison ($5,500) will be important to monitor as it impacts the viability of Michael Wilson ($7,000), who's priced up, and rightfully so, based on how good he's been. Harrison is trending towards a return after missing the last two games with a heel injury. He's cheap enough to be considered in tournaments, but if he's active, I'd rather bypass their WRs for Trey McBride ($7,600), who's coming off yet another mammoth game (12 catches for 134 yards and two touchdowns against the Texans). His salary will keep him lower owned as the field lives in the midrange at TE this week. 

• Favorite Falcons Stack: QB Cousins + RB Robinson + TE Pitts
• Favorite Cardinals Stack: QB Brissett + RB Robinson + TE McBride

Pittsburgh Steelers (22.5) at Detroit Lions (29.5)

Steelers

The highest-totaled game of the week sees Pittsburgh travel to Detroit, where inside the dome at Ford Field we've gotten shootouts more often than not. In fact, the Lions have allowed 30 points to the Cowboys, 31 to the Packers and 27 to Jameis Winston and the Giants in their last three home games. The defense isn't what it used to be, especially in the secondary as they're dealing with multiple injuries. Aaron Rodgers ($5,000) is playing his best ball in some time and has the Steelers in first place. Coming off 224 yards and two TDs in three quarters against Miami last week, he threw for 284 in a win over Baltimore the week prior. He still has some upside in the right spots, like when Pittsburgh is an underdog against a high-scoring team with a suspect defense. DK Metcalf ($5,400) is his No. 1 WR and priced surprisingly low, which means he'll be popular because he projects among the better values at his position. With no clear WR2, Kenneth Gainwell ($5,100) has become Rodgers' favorite target, catching at least six passes in four of the last five games; he should be heavily involved again Sunday, with Rodgers checking to him to combat the pass-rush. 

Lions

Some were worried about how Jared Goff ($6,100) would perform against a stout Rams defense last week, and he responded with 338 yards, three TDs and no INTs. This week's matchup is more favorable, and the Lions have the highest implied total on the board. Jahmyr Gibbs ($8,500) projects as the best overall value, and he also happens to have the highest ceiling. He's a great option in any type of stack. Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,400) is coming off a season-high 13 catches on 18 targets for 164 yards; he and Jameson Williams ($6,400) have really stepped up in the absence of Sam LaPorta as they've seen an increase in volume. Williams has seven catches in three consecutive games and 29+ DraftKings points in two. They'll be two of the more popular WRs on the slate, and rightfully so. 

• Favorite Steelers Stack: QB Rodgers + RB Gibbs + WR Metcalf +/- WR St. Brown
• Favorite Lions Stack: QB Goff + RB Gibbs + WR Metcalf + WR St. Brown or WR Williams

Other Stacks to Consider

QB Joe Burrow + WR Ja'Marr Chase

QB Bo Nix + WR Courtland Sutton + WR Jakobi Meyers or WR Brian Thomas

QB Trevor Lawrence + RB RJ Harvey + WR Jakobi Meyers and/or WR Brian Thomas

QB C.J. Stroud + WR Nico Collins and/or TE Dalton Schultz

QB J.J. McCarthy + WR Justin Jefferson 

QB Gardner Minshew + WR Xavier Worthy and/or TE Travis Kelce

High-Priced Heroes

• RB Bijan Robinson at ARI ($8,700)

I mentioned above that it doesn't get more ideal than a matchup against Arizona. The Cardinals have a bad defense and pass at the league's highest rate. That combination has led to their games ranking first in combined play volume. It's a great spot for Robinson, who's coming off 27 touches, including eight catches for 175 yards against Tampa Bay. It was the third time in his last five games that he's scored at least 30 DraftKings points. 

• WR Amon-Ra St. Brown vs. PIT ($8,400)

Fresh off a season-high 44 fantasy points from 13 catches on 18 targets last week, St. Brown projects as the best point-per-dollar value at his position. Detroit WRs have a seen a noticeable increase in target share with Sam LaPorta out injured. The Lions have the highest implied total and a home matchup with shootout potential. 

Honorable Mentions: WR Ja'Marr Chase ($8,600); TE Trey McBride ($7,600)

Fading the Field

Every week we see at least one or two players who are popular without the backing of a top point-per-dollar projection. In some cases it even makes sense to fade a player with a strong projection, particularly when there are good alternatives at the same position and price range.

• RB De'Von Achane vs. CIN ($8,800)

Normally I'd be targeting Achane in a matchup against Cincinnati, but the Bengals defense has improved and I have no idea what to expect as Quinn Ewers makes his NFL debut in place of the benched Tua Tagovailoa. It's more than that though. Bijan Robinson has an incredible matchup that I don't want to pass on, while Jahmyr Gibbs projects considerably better than Achane for cheaper. Those spots are too appealing for me to chase leverage and roster Achane instead, but it's a strategy that makes sense in the largest-field GPPs. 

The Smash Spot

(Players in favorable spots to significantly outperform their salary.)

• WR Xavier Worthy at TEN ($4,400)

Chiefs pass-catchers have a prime opportunity to shine Sunday with target-monster Rashee Rice (concussion) ruled out and a soft matchup against the toothless Titans defense. Unfortunately, Patrick Mahomes suffered a season-ending knee injury last week, which means veteran gamer Gardner Minshew gets the call. We've seen him have plenty of success when called on in previous seasons, and we know what Worthy is capable of if he sees some volume. He should on Sunday.

Honorable Mention: TE Travis Kelce ($4,500)

The Bargain Bin

QB Aaron Rodgers at DET ($5,000)

QB J.J. McCarthy at NYG ($4,900)

QB Kirk Cousins at ARI ($4,800)

QB Gardner Minshew at TEN ($4,500)

QB Quinn Ewers vs. CIN ($4,000)

RB Ashton Jeanty at HOU ($5,600)

RB Michael Carter vs. ATL ($5,400)

RB Aaron Jones at NYG ($5,200)

RB Kenneth Gainwell at DET ($5,100)

RB Audric Estime vs. NYJ ($5,000)

WR Keenan Allen at DAL ($4,800)

WR Adonai Mitchell at NO ($4,500)

WR Xavier Worthy at TEN ($4,400)

WR John Metchie at NO ($4,000)

WR Hollywood Brown at TEN ($3,900)

TE T.J. Hockenson at NYG ($3,000)

TE Evan Engram vs. JAX ($2,900)

Injuries to Monitor

• WR Marvin Harrison vs. ATL

Harrison's status will be important to monitor as it relates to the viability of Michael Wilson ($6,900) in cash games. If Harrison is active, I'd avoid Wilson in that format, especially with plenty of other decent options in the $5K-$6K range. As for Harrison, his salary has fallen to a point where you can consider him for leverage in large field tournaments. 

Weather

• Suprisingly for this time of year, there isn't much to worry about as most games will be played either in nice weather or indoors. Cleveland looks like the most concerning spot as it will be cold and windy.