The first two days of the Big Dance have already brought plenty of Madness, and we're only halfway through the first wave of games. Here are my three top picks for the first half of the Round of 32, tipping off on Saturday.
Top College Basketball Best Bets for Saturday
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Louisville 
vs. Michigan State 
First and foremost, Louisville's superstar freshman and potential NBA lottery pick Mikel Brown remains sidelined and won't play on Saturday.
With that out of the way, I should note that Louisville has nonetheless overcome Brown's absence and defeated multiple NCAA Tournament teams over the past couple of weeks, earning wins at Miami, against SMU, and, more recently, against South Florida this past Thursday.
Michigan State presents a formidable challenge, obviously, possessing an elite interior defense. If a team is going to defeat the Spartans, it needs to have a reliable perimeter attack. Michigan State's defense boasts the highest rebounding percentage among all D-1 teams, and it ranked second in the Big Ten during conference play in two-point shooting (49 percent allowed) and effective field goal percentage allowed. Perhaps the biggest indication of its exemplary defense in the paint is that opponents often don't even attempt shots within the arc. Three-pointers account for 37 percent of Michigan State's opponents' total points, the 18th-highest mark among all D-1 teams.
With this in mind, it's unsurprising to see that Michigan State is nearly unbeatable when playing against teams without a noteworthy perimeter attack. When playing against opponents that rank among the Top 140 teams in three-point attempt rate, Michigan State's record is 9-6, while it is 17-1 against teams that rank outside that mark.
Well, Louisville makes a living attacking from the perimeter. The Cardinals boast the fourth-highest three-point attempt rate nationally, while making 36 percent of them. Thus, shots from beyond the arc account for 41 percent of Louisville's scoring, the 13th-highest mark nationally. Aside from shooting, Louisville tends to grab a fair share of boards, ranking 91st in offensive rebounding percentage.
The matchup at the other end of the court is similarly just as tight. Michigan State's offense ranks 23rd in adjusted efficiency, with Louisville's defense coming in one slot behind it at 24th. The Cardinals have played defense at a respectable level in most of the usual key areas, ranking among the Top 70 teams in rebounding, two-point shooting allowed (49 percent), three-point shooting allowed (32 percent), and effective field goal percentage.
Michigan State is always a tough out, but I believe Louisville has the tools to stay in the game. I'm taking the points.
College Basketball Best Bet: Louisville +4.5
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Texas 
vs. Gonzaga
This pick is all about the matchup.
Gonzaga's offense has a decent adjusted efficiency rating (32nd), but it has one significant limitation that I believe will inevitably be fatal. It can't score from the perimeter.
The Bulldogs rarely attempt three-pointers (340th in attempt rate), which is probably a good strategy for them because they don't often connect, making just 32 percent of their attempts during the conference season. Thus, it's no surprise that three-pointers account for just 23 percent of Gonzaga's total points, among the 20 lowest teams in all of D-1. Gonzaga can get by with its outstanding interior scoring in most instances; however, I don't believe that is the case this time around.
The Longhorns' defense isn't very impressive by adjusted-efficiency metrics (85th), but it excels in two key areas that should pay off on Saturday. First, they're highly proficient on the glass, ranking 26th in rebounding percentage, and they're solid at defending the paint, holding opponents to 50 percent on two-point attempts (90th). The other note in their favor is that Gonzaga seldom gets to the charity stripe, ranking 276th in free-throw attempt rate. Texas tends to foul opponents, so this shouldn't be overlooked, either.
At the other end of the court, both teams are usually at their best. Even so, the Longhorns' offense has demonstrated a high ceiling when firing on all cylinders. They rank 16th in adjusted efficiency, third overall in free-throw attempt rate, and 29th in offensive rebounding. They also made 36 percent of three-point attempts against SEC opponents, the fourth-highest mark in the league, further rounding out their potent offense.
Considering the matchup, I'm taking the points with the better offensive team.
College Basketball Best Bet: Texas +6.5
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Vanderbilt 
vs. Nebraska 
While Nebraska has played defense at an elite level throughout the season, so has Vanderbilt's offense, as both rank among the Top 10 nationally in adjusted efficiency.
At the other end of the court, the situation doesn't look nearly as balanced. Nebraska has proven to have excellent shooters, but that's about it. They rank among the worst teams nationally in offensive rebounding percentage (310th) and free-throw attempt rate (355th). The latter is particularly significant in this matchup because Vanderbilt's biggest defensive weakness is its tendency to foul opponents, ranking 301st in free-throw attempt rate allowed. On paper, that should be less of an issue on Saturday, as Nebraska clearly prefers to settle for jump shots. The Huskers have the ninth-highest three-point attempt rate nationally, so their primary offensive strategy consists of hoisting up shots and running back on defense. It's been successful enough to get them to this point, but it doesn't give them any clear advantages or ways to exploit Vanderbilt's defense.
Defensively, the Commodores improved and sharpened themselves throughout the conference season. During league play, Vanderbilt's defense led the SEC in turnover percentage and ranked fourth in efficiency and block percentage.
Given an elite offensive team and a defense that matches up well against Nebraska, I'm taking Vanderbilt in this spot.
College Basketball Best Bet: Vanderbilt -1.5
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Saturday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Saturday:
- Louisville +4.5
- Texas +6.5
- Vanderbilt -1.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sources, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
