Today needs little introduction, as anyone who's reading this article already knows that Part II of the Round of 64 headlines the day. Here are my predictions for a trio of games on Friday's slate.
Top College Basketball Best Bets for Friday
For up-to-the-minute updates on injuries, player performance and the transfer portal, head RotoWire's latest college basketball news page or follow @RotoWireCBB on X.
Utah State 
vs. Villanova 
These teams seem appropriately seeded given their stats, though KenPom may argue that the seeds should be flipped, as Utah State (No. 29) actually ranks a few ticks higher than Villanova (No. 33) on the overall efficiency chart.
Part of the Aggies' superior standing is due to their better offensive numbers. They rank 28th in adjusted efficiency and are among the best at shooting. They're making 59 percent of shots inside the arc (11th) and 35 percent beyond it (109th), generating the 14th-highest effective field goal percentage among all D-1 teams. They're also among the top 100 in free-throw attempt rate and rebounding percentage, with the latter likely to be a significant factor on Friday, as the Wildcats' defense ranks 246th in rebounding percentage. It's also worth noting that Villanova was vulnerable in the paint during the conference season, as Big East opponents made 53 percent of two-point attempts, the third-worst mark in the league.
Defensively, Utah State has two important facts working in its favor. First, the Aggies are decent defensively, ranking 44th in adjusted efficiency, though they have one key weakness: they tend to foul opponents (280th in free-throw attempt rate allowed). This is an issue that could burn them against a particular opponent, but, fortunately for Utah State, Villanova mostly settles for long-range jump shots, ranking 276th in free-throw attempt rate. And even if the Aggies can't help themselves, the Wildcats made just 69 percent of free throws this season (290th). Second, Utah State's defense is elite at causing havoc for opposing teams. The Aggies rank among the top 16 teams in all of D-1 in both turnover and steal percentages.
It's also worth noting that Utah State's schedule (No. 79) was nearly as difficult as Villanova's (No. 67), despite the latter playing in the Big East.
KenPom projects a one-point victory for the Aggies, 75-74, and, after analyzing the matchup, I also believe the edge belongs to Utah State. I'm riding with the Aggies in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Utah State -1.5
There are so many ways to get in on the CBB betting action ahead of March Madness. Claim over a thousand dollars in bonuses by signing up at the best sports betting sites using the best sportsbook promos.
Iowa 
vs. Clemson
The Hawkeyes' defense is formidable, as evidenced by its adjusted efficiency rating (30th), but it has a few significant weaknesses. Perhaps most glaringly, it frequently fouls opponents to an alarming degree. Iowa ranks 289th in free-throw attempt rate allowed for the whole season, including the worst mark during the Big Ten conference season. This is welcome news for Clemson as it ranks 131st in free-throw attempt rate, including the fifth-highest mark during the ACC conference season.
On a related note, Iowa's defense overly relies on turnovers for stops, which it's great at causing, but also necessary because they allow opponents to make a high amount of shot attempts. Iowa is allowing opponents to make 54 percent of two-point attempts (283rd) and 34 percent of three-point attempts (161st), combining for an effective field goal percentage allowed that ranks 251st. The problem on Friday is that Clemson typically takes care of the ball, ranking 28th in offensive turnover percentage. As long as Clemson can hang on to the ball, history suggests that Iowa will allow a decent look at the rim.
At the other end of the court, Clemson's defense is the strongest component in this matchup. It ranks 21st in adjusted efficiency, and, while Iowa's offense isn't bad, either (31st in adjusted efficiency), the Tigers are well-equipped to get stops.
Clemson's defense ranks 124th in turnover percentage and is holding opponents to 49 percent on two-point attempts (64th) and 33 percent on three-point attempts (89th). They are also among the best at boxing out, recording a rebounding percentage that ranks 15th among all D-1 teams. This is especially important against Iowa because KenPom data suggests that the Hawkeyes' offensive and defensive efficiency ratings are significantly correlated with their offensive rebounding. It's natural that a team benefits offensively from its offensive rebounding, but this is an unusual case where its defense also benefits to the same degree. One can draw their own conclusions as to why this is the case; perhaps Iowa's defense benefits greatly from getting set after a made shot that follows an extra possession. In any event, the data suggests that Iowa suffers at both ends of the court when facing a team that secures defensive rebounds.
For these reasons, I'm taking Clemson.
College Basketball Best Bet: Clemson +2.5
Check out Caesars Sportsbook this season and use the Caesars Sportsbook promo code for one of the top college basketball betting promos out there.
Missouri 
vs. Miami 
Missouri knows how to make shots, but it has a severe red flag that makes this matchup particularly challenging on paper.
Specifically, the Tigers were the sloppiest team in the SEC. They rank 267th in offensive turnover percentage, including the worst mark during the conference season. It's also worth noting that they rank 321st in non-steal turnover percentage, suggesting they often commit unforced errors.
Unforced or not, this is a foreboding trait in this matchup because Miami often takes the ball away. The Hurricanes rank 82nd in defensive turnover percentage and 46th in steals, including the fourth-best mark in both categories during the ACC conference season.
Additionally, Missouri faces another problem in this matchup. It often benefits from extra possessions, ranking 39th in offensive rebounding percentage, except it's less likely to get those opportunities on Friday, as Miami, led by First Team All-ACC selection Malik Renau, is one of the best teams on the glass. Miami ranks among the top 25 teams nationally in both offensive and defensive rebounding percentage, including top-two marks among ACC teams during league play.
Speaking of rebounds, while the Tigers often tally them offensively, they don't have the same skill set when playing in the other direction. Missouri's defense ranks 221st in rebounding percentage, which means Miami (17th in offensive rebounding) will likely take advantage, especially since the Hurricanes are making 57 percent of shot attempts inside the arc (29th).
Missouri has shown it can beat a team like Florida when it's firing on all cylinders, but unfortunately for the Tigers, it has other problems that often prevent that from happening, and Miami appears to have the ideal strengths set to take advantage. I'm going with the Hurricanes in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Miami -2
Check out BetMGM Sportsbook to bet on National Championship Odds, and use this BetMGM Bonus Code for a great welcome offer.
Friday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Friday:
- Utah State -1.5
- Clemson +2.5
- Miami -2
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sources, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
