John Deere Classic Betting Preview
Preceding a pair of events overseas, the PGA Tour continues its brief swing in the Midwest and heads to the Quad Cities for this week's John Deere Classic at TPC Deere Run in Silvis, Illinois. An event that often gets overlooked by the top players, we have seven of the top-50 golfers in the OWGR teeing-it-up, headlined by tournament favorite Ben Griffin at 16-1 odds. Last year, Davis Thompson (22-1) secured his first Tour victory by four strokes over Michael Thorbjornsen, Luke Clanton and C.T. Pan.
All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 11:00 AM ET Wednesday.
Course Overview
Par 71, 7,289 yards
These are the average rankings of John Deere Classic winners over the last five years:
- SG: Off-the-Tee: 15.5
- SG: Approach: 14.8
- SG: Around-the-Green: 13.5
- SG: Putting: 14.8
- SG: Tee-to-Green: 3.8
- Driving Distance: 31.8
- Driving Accuracy: 19.5
An event that I attend yearly, this is a venue I've walked around more times than I can remember and hopefully that will help provide some valuable insight! First and foremost, I think any style can win around here but there's certainly an advantage towards the straighter hitters. There are a few forced layups off the tee (par-4 fifth, sixth and 11th hole) that takes driver out of the players' hands. While this is known as a birdie-fest with the winner reaching 21-under par in five of the last six editions of the event, the rough is thick and tree-lined fairways can cause challenges for wayward drives. That's evidenced in the stats above, as we can see accuracy is at much more of a premium than distance. Nothing else really stands out statistically. It's not a long course, either, with only three par-4s over 460 yards. Ideally we're looking for accurate drivers, birdie makers, players that approach it well from 100-150 yards and golfers capable of spike putting weeks.
TPC Deere Run Standouts
The following golfers have the lowest scoring average at TPC Deere Run since 2021 (minimum eight rounds):
- Davis Thompson: 66.1
- Michael Thorbjornsen: 66.3
- Denny McCarthy: 67.1
- Lucas Glover: 67.2
- J.T. Poston: 67.3
Defending champion Thompson (30-1 odds this year) tops the list having posted three rounds in the 60s in his debut here two years ago, and he's gained a whopping 2.45 strokes per round with his short game across eight rounds at Deere Run. The 26-year-old is coming off a modest T34 at Detroit Golf Club last week and is still in search of his first top-5 of the year. One of three past champions on the list, Glover won here in 2021 and has plenty of experience as he'll be making his 16th start at the event and has five top-25s over last six trips. That's only garnered moderate respect from the oddsmakers as he comes in at 40-1, which is a bit surprising considering he's 31st in the FedExCup Standings and fresh off a top-10 in a signature event two weeks ago.
Tee-to-Green Tacticians
These five golfers, on a per-round basis, have gained the most strokes from tee to green over their last 20 rounds:
- Ben Griffin: 1.67
- Chris Gotterup: 1.44
- Ryan Gerard: 1.18
- Chris Kirk: 1.08
- Emiliano Grillo: 1.08
A two-time winner this season, Griffin comes into the event as the clear favorite as his top-15 streak has now reached six straight tournaments. Looking to secure a first-ever Ryder Cup selection, Griffin closed with a nine-under 62 on Sunday last year for the lowest final round en route to a backdoor top-5. His tee to green play has been a big reason for his success, where he ranks 21st on the season. Meanwhile, Grillo is easiest player to overlook on this list as he enters with longshot odds at 70-1, and he lacks a top-10 showing this year but does have a solid six top-25s across his last 10 starts. Notably, he finished three shots back of Poston in 2022 to finish T2 in his debut at the course. The two-time Tour winner is one of the most accurate drivers in the field.
John Deere Classic Bets: Outright Picks
Michael Thorbjornsen (30-1)
Coming off a top-10 hit with Thorbjornsen last week, I'm going right back to him. The 23-year-old has shown good form in both of his trips to the Quad Cities, finishing T17 as an amateur in 2023 and then followed it up with a shared runner-up last year. He's ranked sixth and second in ball-striking in his two appearances and is coming off a top-5 in Detroit last week.
Kevin Yu (35-1)
Yu's ball-striking numbers stand out: sixth in SG: Off-the-Tee, 28th on approach and 18th in GIR this year. The third-year Tour pro has finished T6 and T20 in his two trips to TPC Deere Run and has a pair of top-5s across his last five starts.
Cameron Champ (80-1)
A three-time Tour winner, Champ might not stand out from a course fit angle as a long hitter, but he's also become much more accurate off the tee. His time has been split between the Korn Ferry and PGA Tour this season, and he's posted T9 and T19 in his two June starts at the upper level.
John Deere Classic Bets: Top-10 Wagers
Lee Hodges (9-2)
This is a course that should be up Hodges' alley as an accurate driver and strong iron player. He's made the cut in both of his previous appearances but has struggled on the greens. Hodges has three top-10s this season, including in Canada last month.
Jackson Koivun (15-2)
Koivun had a standout freshman season at Auburn, winning two of his last three collegiate tournaments and is now the top-ranked player in the World Amateur Golf Rankings. He hasn't translated that in limited starts at this level, but it's only a matter of time.
Ben James (16-1)
We saw Clanton and Thorbjornsen play well here last year, so I'm not afraid to go the young route with another amateur in James who recently earned first-team All-American honors at Virginia. He finished T33 at the Valero Texas Open and later missed the cut by one shot at the U.S. Open.
John Deere Classic Bets: Head-to-Head Matchups
Chris Kirk (-115) over Jake Knapp
Kirk and Knapp are both coming off strong showings in Detroit, but Kirk's game is better suited to take on TPC Deere Run. He's a good option for a matchups bet as he's made 6-of-7 cuts here with four top-25s. Knapp is wild off the tee which we know isn't ideal, and he had a modest T52 showing last year.
Thorbjorn Olesen (-120) over Aldrich Potgieter
It's easy to question Potgieter's motivation level after winning on the fifth playoff hole last week and his distance advantage will be negated much more than it was in Detroit. I'll side with the veteran in Olesen, who lacks a weakness in his game and that's led to a solid 9-of-13 cuts made with a pair of top-10s.
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