MLB Picks: Peter Schoenke's 2026 MLB Win Totals To Target

MLB Predictions: MLB Win Totals 2026 from Peter Schoenke

Before the baseball season each of the last 25 years I've written a story at RotoWire with my best bets for the season-long win totals. I'm a big fan of the season win total bets ever since I started making them in person in Las Vegas back in the late 1990s. I've used several concepts of sabrermetrical analysis to try to find teams that appeared to be good bets.

When I first started writing this story, the only place to find season-long team prop bets in early March was by going in person to Las Vegas and walking to the small, dingy backroom sportsbook of the Imperial Palace. The over/unders were written on a white board. Fast forward to today and team win totals are up earlier than ever, are available at almost every sportsbook and now you can trade them all season at prediction markets. You can also pick your win total as opposed to just one line. For example, DraftKings offers bets on the Mets to win more than 85 games (-350), 90 games (-115), 95 games (+240), 100 games (+600) and 105 games (+1300). Still, I like to still focus on the set over/under total as a benchmark to help think about what to expect from teams and how that impacts player projections.

I've had a decent track record, winning 68 of 125 (with one push) bets for a 54.4 percent win rate. My best bet each season is 20-18 (I had multiple biggest bets some years). On bets of $100 or more (I vary my bet size to emphasize how strongly I feel about the pick) I'm 15-14. I'm most impressive when looking at the total amount bet, where I've been correct 56.6 percent of the time ($4,025 in winning bets, $3,075 in losers - not factoring in the vig*).

I had great success last season going 7-2 with a +$400 gain. I needed it as I've been in a slump, going 3-8 the prior two years. After 25 years, it's refreshing that these methods still have merit. So, here is my take on the 2026 season from a wagering perspective.

(For this exercise, I'm using odds from DraftKings sportsbook on March 19.)

MLB Betting Strategy

When I look at an upcoming baseball season, there are eight methods I use to judge which teams might be a good bet: Three are statistical, four are observations I've had watching the bookies set season-long lines for MLB and other sports and I'll throw in a wild-card pick with no particular theoretical basis. Here's the breakdown on these theories and the teams I decided to actually wager on.

Here's my take on each team, with more analysis below on those I selected as my "bets."

The Johnson Effect

The Johnson Effect argues that a team that scores more runs or allows fewer runs than most statistical formulas would suggest is bound to regress the next season. For example, if one team scores more runs than sabermetrical formulas such as Runs Created or OPS might suggest, then it will score less the next season. The theory works based on the fact that sometimes a team has more success than it should just based on pure luck. A bad bounce here, a fluke play here  - they can add up in one season and make a team look more powerful than it should be.

My favorite type of statistic for this analysis is a tool called the Pythagorean Theory. You probably learned the Pythagorean theory in trigonometry, but in baseball, it means that the ratio of a team's wins and losses will be similar to the relationship between the square of its runs scored and the square of its runs allowed. 

If the runs a team scores and gives up in any given season don't translate into the expected win total from the Pythagorean Theory, that means something odd took place that should turn around next season.

Using the Johnson Effect and applying the Pythagorean Theory, who looks like they'll rebound in 2026? Here are the top teams that should have had more or less wins based on their 2025 runs allowed/created than they actually tallied:

I usually like to look for teams that have a differential of ten or more games. The White Sox may have underachieved last season, but this theory may not fit as well for teams moving from just 41 wins. There's likely a lot of easy improvements from being the all-time team in losses to being just a bad team, so I'll pass on a bet.

 The Plexiglas Principle

This theory says that any team that improves dramatically in one season is likely to decline the next season.

What teams made such dramatic moves from 2024 to 2025?

The Blue Jays are the type of team I look for in this bet. Teams that have improved by 20 or more games since 1970 (70 teams) have declined by an average of 8.1 games the following season. The sportsbooks have the Jays declining just 6.5 games coming off their AL pennant. It's hard to see the Blue Jays taking a step back as they added significant talent in Dylan Cease, Kazuma Okamoto, Tyler Rogers and Cody Ponce. However, they did lose Chris Bassitt and Bo Bichette. They've already had some attrition in the starting rotation with injuries to Shane Bieber, Trey Yesavage and Jose Berrios. Toronto's offense went from 23rd in runs scored in 2024 to 4th in 2025 with a contact-focused approach that had them lead all of MLB in both batting average and on-base percentage. Perhaps that offensive approach takes a slight step back this year. That alone may bring their win total into the mid 80s. I'll bet $50 the Jays win less than 88.5 games. The White Sox again probably are not a great fit considering their starting point was an all-time low 41 wins. The Marlins made a big jump, but with their young pitching talent I think they can sustain most of those gains.

The Reverse Plexiglas Principle

When a team has consistently been a winner and then experiences a sudden drop-off, there is a strong likelihood that its win total will rebound. Or at least that's my theory.

Here are the teams that declined the most in 2025: 

The Orioles stand out as a recent playoff team that took an unexpected dip last season to just 75 wins. They had won 91, 101 and 83 games the last three seasons. The sportsbooks have the O's bouncing back to 85.5 wins. (The O's have a 66% chance of topping 85 wins on Kalshi on Mar. 20 for what it's worth.) The sportsbooks see an 11.5 game improvement. That's rich but the O's may have done enough with their pitching to improve a team that was 25th in points allowed. Still, 85.5 wins just seems a tad too high.

The Bottom Feeder Bet

Betting the over on teams with very low projected win totals has been perhaps my best performing wager. Teams projected by the sportsbooks to win less than 65.5 games have hit the over in 16 of 28 instances (57.1%) since 2003 (including prorated totals for the 2020 Detroit Tigers and 2020 Baltimore Orioles). The worst projected totals have fared even better. Teams projected to win less than 60 games have hit the over in 8 of 11 seasons (72.7%). Perhaps the sportsbooks just don't get enough optimistic bettors for teams the public isn't interested in supporting. 

Do the Rockies fit this mold? They won just 43 games. It's hard to believe a team in Coors Field was 29th in runs scored. The team scored just 597 runs, well over 100 less runs than any Colorado team in the last 20 years. There's not a lot of immediate help on the way as the franchise is low in farm system rankings (23rd by The Athletic and 28th by ESPN). Their pitching was perhaps worse with a franchise-record 1021 runs allowed. The team's only significant additions in the offseason (Willi Castro, Michael Lorenzen, Jose Quintana, Edouard Julien) hardly move the needle.  The only upside is that the "paste eaters," as colleague Jeff Erickson calls them, finally have someone in charge who knows something about modern baseball in team president Paul DePodesta. Perhaps that alone is enough to find ways to win 11 more games. I should probably take the over on principle given the historical samples, but it's just hard to see any area where they improve. I'll pass, but wouldn't knock you if you bet the over.

The Book's Biggest Movers

The next thing I look at is what teams the bookies think will have the biggest improvement or decline.

There are a lot of good candidates among these teams for the sportsbooks to be wrong. The Brewers stand out as their sharp decline is likely based on their trades of Freddy Peralta and Caleb Durbin. However, the Brewers have shown they can offset veteran losses with their pitching development as they did each of the last two seasons after trades of Devin Williams and Corbin Burnes. The Brewers have the top ranked farm system in baseball (according to both ESPN and The Athletic's Keith Law) which will fill in the gaps. Kyle Harrison, Brandon Sproat, Chad Patrick and Robert Gasser in particular look like they can offset the loss of Peralta and give the Brewers a competitive advantage in starting rotation depth. When I first checked the win totals for teams in January, this one easily stood out. I made a bet at 85.5 at -114. It was available on Fanduel at 84.5 -120 on Mar. 19. I'll bet $200 the Brewers win more than 84.5 games.

The Book's Non Movers

Tampa Bay hadn't won fewer than 80 games since 2016 (if you prorate the 2020 season) but fell to 77 wins last season. The sportsbooks have the Rays effectively staying in the same place. However, there are reasons for optimism. The team moves back indoors to Tropicana Field after playing a season outdoors in their minor league park due to hurricane damage repairs. The Rays roster may have always been better for indoor baseball with less humidity and and more emphasis on pitching. The farm system is always primed to produce assets at the major league level ( even with farm system rankings of just No. 12 at ESPN and No. 16 at The Athletic). More than anything this is a bet the usual leading analytical front office can find a way to return to their prior winning ways. The Rays have hit the over in 10 of the last 15 years. The over hasn't been this cheap since a projected win total of 74 in 2018 (they won 90 games). I'll bet $50 the Rays win more than 77.5 games.

I'm a fan of Sacramento's lineup (that's what I choose to call the A's location). Shea Langeliers, Nick Kurtz, Jacob Wilson, Lawrence Butler form a great young corps. Leo De Vries could be an impact player and called up soon. Max Muncy, Denzel Clarke, Colby Thomas and Henry Bolte have potential. This could be a very good lineup. The pitching is another story (27th in runs allowed) and adjusting to hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park could impact development similar to Coors Field. Still, the pitching has to be better with some live arms (Jack Perkins, Justin Sterner, Luis Morales) ready to contribute. I'll bet $25 the A's win more than 75.5 games.

Wild Card

I've occasionally chosen a bet for this article that doesn't fit any statistical theory but rather a trend that I've observed. Last year that theory would be that on principle you should take the under on any team to win 100 games. It worked as the Dodgers were forecast to win 103.5 games and only won 93 games. 

Since 2001, the sportsbooks have projected just five teams with over 100 wins. Only one of the five won more than 100 the next season: the 2021 Dodgers. The Dodgers are again projected to win over 100 games at 102.5 wins. I'll take that under again on principle. With the Dodgers it makes sense because the organization has shown it doesn't care about regular season win totals. The Dodgers the past few years have made moves to maximize playoff performance (resting starting pitchers, finding creative ways to give players time off) rather than regular season wins. As long as they're going to win the division, they'll take their foot off the gas. Of course they have the talent to win 110 games or make a run all the all-time win total record, I just don't see that as one of their goals. I'll bet $25 the Dodgers don't win 102.5 games.

An even better bet based on this theory is available at DraftKings where you can wager whether any team will have more than 104.5 wins (at -105). Again, that's an easy bet on the under on principle as it's even higher than the Dodgers' projected total. Just six teams have topped 104 .5 wins since 2010.

 MLB Win Total Best Bets for 2026 Recap

 *One note: My bets/track record doesn't account for the variations in extra juice you need to pay. Most lines are -110, meaning the sportsbook takes about five percent on each bet. The "vig" tends to be higher on these bets than for single games. Sometimes, the vig can vary widely, such as when the 2016 Rangers' under of 83.5 wins was at -140 (the under was +110). It's another method for the bookmakers to alter how the money is coming in on each side so it gets to their comfort level. Or it's a way to change the odds without moving the win total.

If you are making a lot of bets, this is a serious factor in the math. But I don't bother to take that into account because I'm more focused on the overall wins number from a team perspective. Plus, I forgot to keep track of the vig in the early years.

I vary the dollar amounts below as a way to show how confident I am in the bet (the $300 bet on the 2004 Royals is my all-time high), so there are some holes in the math if you added in all the varying vigs.

Here's the breakdown: 

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