Last weekend, I asked the RotoWire staff for their top sleepers and busts for this season. Throughout this week, I'll share our team's picks across a series of four articles. After covering hitter sleepers, pitcher sleepers and hitter busts, today we'll wrap up the series with pitcher busts.
The players are listed in order of their ADP in the RotoWire Online Championship. I've included each writer's explanation for their pick from their response to my email, as well as a link to their writer page here at RotoWire so you can check out all of their work.
Intro by Erik Halterman
Fantasy Baseball Busts: Hitters
Cristopher Sanchez, SP, Phillies (ADP 26)
"Bust" is too strong a term for Sanchez, but he's overvalued. I've seen this left-hander go in the second round of drafts, but I'd much rather choose a trusty bat like Francisco Lindor, Trea Turner or Pete Alonso. I know Sanchez had a stupendous 2025 season, but I can't overlook his 3.70 ERA and 1.22 WHIP prior to that. This guy is great, but taking him in the Top 25 is just too high. — Joel Bartilotta
Edwin Diaz, RP, Dodgers (ADP 33)
The Dodgers haven't had a top-5 fantasy closer since Kenley Jansen, and Diaz is getting drafted as a top-10 overall pitcher off the board this year. He'll probably be very good when he pitches, but the Dodgers won't overwork him, and they've got a ton of talent in the
Last weekend, I asked the RotoWire staff for their top sleepers and busts for this season. Throughout this week, I'll share our team's picks across a series of four articles. After covering hitter sleepers, pitcher sleepers and hitter busts, today we'll wrap up the series with pitcher busts.
The players are listed in order of their ADP in the RotoWire Online Championship. I've included each writer's explanation for their pick from their response to my email, as well as a link to their writer page here at RotoWire so you can check out all of their work.
Intro by Erik Halterman
Fantasy Baseball Busts: Hitters
Cristopher Sanchez, SP, Phillies (ADP 26)
"Bust" is too strong a term for Sanchez, but he's overvalued. I've seen this left-hander go in the second round of drafts, but I'd much rather choose a trusty bat like Francisco Lindor, Trea Turner or Pete Alonso. I know Sanchez had a stupendous 2025 season, but I can't overlook his 3.70 ERA and 1.22 WHIP prior to that. This guy is great, but taking him in the Top 25 is just too high. — Joel Bartilotta
Edwin Diaz, RP, Dodgers (ADP 33)
The Dodgers haven't had a top-5 fantasy closer since Kenley Jansen, and Diaz is getting drafted as a top-10 overall pitcher off the board this year. He'll probably be very good when he pitches, but the Dodgers won't overwork him, and they've got a ton of talent in the bullpen to get the odd save chance. — James Anderson
Chris Sale, SP, Braves (ADP 39)
Sale is in his age-37 season. His 2025 numbers showed a decline, and he's not likely to be a workhorse. Sale is also in an unfavorable ballpark, and the Braves have a so-so defense. That's far too many negatives to justify an ADP 45 investment. — KC Joyner
Jacob deGrom, SP, Rangers (ADP 49)
Last season's 30 starts were more than deGrom had managed in his prior three seasons combined, and 2025 marked the first time he'd thrown triple-digit innings in a big-league season since 2019. The 37-year-old right-hander can still deliver exceptional results when he's on the mound, but do you really want to pay full retail to see if he can stay mostly healthy two years in a row?— Erik Siegrist
After combining for 41 innings in 2023 and 2024, deGrom threw 172.2 innings last year. He turns 38 years old in June and comes with plenty of injury risk. I'll let someone else overpay for him. — Mike Barner
Aroldis Chapman, RP, Red Sox (ADP 63)
He's 38 and his 2025 season is just so far out of alignment with any season he's had since last decade. His dramatic decrease in walks (2.2 BB/9 compared to 5.0+ BB/9 in each of the previous four years) looks like an anomaly. And there are a lot of great arms in the Boston bullpen.— Peter Schoenke
Chase Burns, SP, Reds (ADP 102)
Burns will be a star in this league, but I think it's tough to project him for more than 125 innings in 2026, which caps his fantasy ceiling relative to where he's going in drafts. — Ryan Rufe
Spencer Strider, SP, Braves (ADP 104)
Sometimes a guy just doesn't bounce all the way back from Tommy John surgery. That was the case last season with Strider, and the heater has still lacked zip this spring. Pre-surgery, Strider was a two-pitch pitcher who overwhelmed with stuff. Now, he's a guy trying to expand his arsenal to four pitches because he knows the two-pitch version isn't good enough anymore. I just don't think it's going to work, and I have no idea why he's still being taken around pick No. 100. — Ryan Boyer
Carlos Estevez, RP, Royals (ADP 105)
Estevez has consistently outperformed his underlying metrics over the past few seasons and has piled up an impressive 99 saves over the past three campaigns, but I think 2026 could be the year that run finally comes to an end. The veteran right-hander is coming off a career-worst 7.4 K/9 and profiles as a pure flyball pitcher who has thrown his fastball — which has shown a noticeable velocity dip this spring — more than 50 percent of the time in every season of his career. There are simply too many regression indicators for me to lean on Estevez's past production and ignore the possibility of a steep decline. — Jeremy Schneider
Zack Wheeler, SP, Phillies (ADP 115)
His ADP has climbed inside the top 100 in recent drafts because he has not yet experienced any setback in his return from Thoracic Outlet Syndrome surgery. Everything in the marketplace right now is assuming perfect health and a return to pre-surgery form just as it was with Spencer Strider as he returned from his most recent surgery. Ask fantasy managers who have buyer's remorse from that recent experience and see how they feel about watching Wheeler go as high as the sixth round in a 15-team draft. — Jason Collette
Jacob Misiorowski, SP, Brewers (ADP 120)
This pains me as a Brewers fan, but I'm not quite buying that he's ready to make the jump in his first full season as a big leaguer. Misiorowski will be electric in 2026, I'm sure, but I think he's still going to be pretty volatile with that 100-mph fastball and high walk rate. — Evan Hauge
Brandon Woodruff, SP, Brewers (ADP 127)
When Woodruff pitches, he's incredible. His last season with an ERA north of 3.20 or a WHIP north of 1.10 was 2019. Unfortunately, his durability concerns have reached untenable levels. Shoulder issues limited him to 11 starts in 2023, and his eventual shoulder surgery cost him all of 2024 and a good chunk of 2025. He then ended last year on the injured list with a lat strain, an issue which has still been present this spring. Now 33 years old, it doesn't seem smart to take the optimistic approach here, making him far too risky to take in this range of the draft. — Erik Halterman
Trevor Rogers, SP, Orioles (ADP 154)
I need more proof of concept from Rogers. He was excellent with the Marlins in 2021, and then proceeded to post a 5.09 ERA over the next three seasons. Even his cameo with the Orioles in 2024 yielded a 7.11 ERA. To go from that to an 1.81 ERA (with a 2.82 FIP) is not something I'm ready to buy in on. — Chris Morgan
Cade Horton, SP, Cubs (ADP 187)
I don't think Horton will be horrible, but I don't see him making his draft price back. Some pitchers throw what look like BBs and they break sharply as they near the plate. To me, Horton's pitches look like beach balls. He seems lucky. When a hitter tags one, it always seems to be right at someone. — Brad Johnson
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