UFC 328 DraftKings DFS Preview and Picks
See the top DraftKings MMA DFS picks and strategy for UFC 328. Build winning lineups with our preview, analysis & fighter breakdowns.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $600k UFC 328 Special with $200k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Middleweight Championship
(C) Khamzat Chimaev (15-0-0) v. Sean Strickland (30-7-0)
DK Salaries: Chimaev ($9,500), Strickland ($6,700)
Vegas Odds: Chimaev (-575), Strickland (+425)
Chimaev made his UFC debut in July 2020, winning his first two fights with the company in the span of 10 days. Overall, he's 9-0 with the promotion, including wins over the likes of Robert Whittaker, Kamaru Usman and Kevin Holland. He won the belt with a dominant (50-44 x3) unanimous decision over Dricus du Plessis last August. Chimaev is a freak athlete and arguably the most explosive fighter in the sport today.
Strickland continues to go about his business at age 35. He lost the 185-pound crown to du Plessis in May 2025, only to rebound with a dominant unanimous decision win over Anthony Hernandez in February in a fight in which he was a massive underdog. Sean is 2-2 in his past four bouts, and I typically don't advocate a fighter on that type of streak getting another shot so soon, but the options at middleweight were limited, and the general dislike between these two makes for great theatre.
Over the course of his UFC run, Chimaev is averaging 5.29 takedowns per 15 minutes. Even more impressive is the fact he's landing a whopping 55 percent of his attempts.
He landed 12-of-17 against DDP, good for 21:40 worth of control time. It's a mind-boggling number. In a fight which went 25 minutes, Chimaev was in a dominant position for nearly 22 of them. I'd be very surprised if he has that type of success against Strickland, although the game plan will be the same.
It must be noted that Strickland just faced a one-dimensional wrestler in Hernandez and did extremely well. So well, in fact, that Fluffy attempted just one takedown, which failed. Sean's very technically sound. Outside of his first fight with Du Plessis in January 2024 in which he gave up six takedowns and dropped a split decision, he's typically done a nice job of remaining upright.
The issue here is that he's facing a guy, at least for the first couple rounds, that is going to appear twice as explosive as anyone's he's faced to date.
The physicality of Chimaev is ridiculous. He's so good at the point of attack that he doesn't need a perfect entry to drag you to the mat. Unlike Hernandez, who appeared baffled and essentially abandoned the wrestling game after not being able to find any lanes early on, Khamzat is going to stick with it.
It looks bleak on paper, but Strickland has a chance to win this fight. He's the better, more fluid striker. He works behind his jab as well as anyone in the sport, and he has an ability to constantly push forever, keeping his opposition of balance.
I'd also wager Sean has the better cardio of the two. Chimaev's conditioning was never an issue against du Plessis because he spent the entire fight in top position.
The Vegas line on Chimaev is too wide, and his DraftKings salary is too high. Are we really sure he's not going to go in there and fight recklessly against a guy he clearly can't stand?
I expect him to have tons of success early, but Strickland is a live underdog if he doesn't get routed immediately. I'm too much of a coward to pick Sean outright, but it's a dog-or-pass play for me fantasy wise.
UFC 328 PICK: Chimaev
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Co-Main Event - Flyweight Championship
(C) Joshua Van (16-2-0) v. Tatsuro Taira (18-1-0)
DK Salaries: Van ($7,500), Taira ($8,500)
Vegas Odds: Van (+140), Taira (-170)
This fight was supposed to take place at UFC 327 in Miami in April before a Van injury forced it to be pushed back about a month. The fact it was rescheduled almost immediately tells me it was a very minor ailment and shouldn't impact things here in the least.
Van still isn't getting the respect he deserves despite the fact he enters as both the undisputed 125-pound king, having won six a row dating back to September 2024. The reason for that is the manner in which he won the belt in December. Then champion Alexandre Pantoja broke his arm less than 30 seconds into the fight, handing Van the title in the process. For what it's worth, I picked Pantoja in that fight, although I respect Josh and how he goes about his business.
Taira turned 26 years old in January, so he figures to hang around the top of the division for quite a while. He's 8-1 with the UFC, with the one setback being a split decision against Brandon Royval in October 2024. Taira is worthy of this opportunity, especially given the current lack of depth at the very top of the flyweight division.
I continue to maintain that Van -- who is still just 24 years of age -- competes too frequently. He fought four times in both 2024 and 2025. It's one thing to fight that often if you're facing lower-level competition, but you aren't going to be able to fend off the best the division has to offer, over and over, with such short breaks in between. I think it probably would have came back to bite him in the Pantoja fight had the latter not been injured early on.
Van and Taira employ entirely different styles.
Van is a cardio machine with the ability to drown his opposition with volume. He lands a ridiculous 8.84 significant strikes a minute, while absorbing an insane 6.39 per minute. It's the latter number that concerns me more than the former impresses me. You just aren't going to be able to land with that type of consistency against the best in the division. In fact, I'm shocked Van has been able to keep the volume that high considering how many fights he's had with the company.
I fully expect Taira, who averages 3.12 takedowns per 15 minutes, to lean on his wrestling here. He certainly can't match Van's volume in the stand-up, but I do think he picks his spots better and he should be able to steal some close rounds with his grappling.
Everything seems correct here.
Van has ways to win this fight, and I wouldn't be shocked if he does, but Taira is more well-rounded. When push comes to shove, I trust what he does more than Van's cardio and volume.
UFC 328 PICK: Taira
Heavyweight
Alexander Volkov (39-11-0) v. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (17-2-0)
DK Salaries: Volkov ($8,600), Cortes-Acosta ($7,600)
Vegas Odds: Volkov (-175), Cortes-Acosta (+145)
Volkov will be 38 years old in October, but he's shown no signs of slowing down in what is a very thin heavyweight division. He's 5-2 in his past seven fights, with the setbacks being a split decision against Ciryl Gane in one of the worst decisions you will ever see and the other being an armbar loss to Tom Aspinall. Volkov has a skill set that typically ages well, so he should have some staying power for the immediate future.
Regular readers of this column known I'm not the biggest Cortes-Acosta guy, but it's impossible to argue with the results of late. He's 8-1 in his past nine fights dating back to August 2023, but the competition level faced remains a major issue. Waldo's best UFC wins are Derrick Lewis -- who was nearly 41 years old at the time -- and Serghei Spivac. This is a massive step up in competition, and I'll be both extremely impressed and extremely surprised if he rolls through Volkov without issue.
I have a bad feeling this fight could end up being quite boring, as both men employ very similar styles.
Cortes-Acosta has three straight wins via knockout, but I still don't trust his power. He's a long, point kickboxer, as is Volkov.
Alex has been knocked out twice in exactly 50 professional fights and not at all since 2018, so my guess is this one ends up seeing the final bell.
At 6-foot-7, Volkov enters with a three-inch advantage in height, in addition to a two-inch edge in reach. He's very good from the outside, and I think he's better defensively than Waldo. Cortes-Acosta just hasn't been forced to do much defending of late because two of his knockout wins ended in Round 1, and Lewis landed just eight total strikes in the other bout.
Both men average well below a single takedown per 15 minutes, so I'd be surprised if that's the route either attempt to go.
I was hoping to get a better price on Volkov given Cortes-Acosta's recent string of success, but it wasn't meant to be. It still doesn't change the pick.
As a former M-1 and Bellator Heavyweight Champion, I simply think he's the better fighter here in what is a strong stylistic matchup for him. There aren't too many heavyweights I'd pick over Volkov in a point, kickboxing match.
UFC 328 PICK: Volkov
Welterweight
Sean Brady (18-2-0) v. Joaquin Buckley (21-7-0)
DK Salaries: Brady ($8,400), Buckley ($7,800)
Vegas Odds: Brady (-170), Buckley (+140)
I have plenty of time for Brady, who has been with the UFC since October 2019 and remains a fringe top-five welterweight at this point. Sean had a three-fight winning streak snapped in a first-round knockout loss to Michael Morales last November. While durability is probably the greatest concern for Brady at this point, I'm willing to give him a pass for the setback because Morales is almost certainly going to be a UFC champion one day. That said, he does need a rebound performance here.
Buckley is tough to figure out. He was wildly inconsistent during the early portion of his run with the company, then he seemed to figure things out. Buckley won six fights in a row from May 2023 to December 2024, only to drop a clear cut unanimous decision to Kamaru Usman in a main event last June. Like Brady, Buckley has zero margin for error here in what essentially equates to a rankings eliminator-type bout at 170 pounds.
He's not Chimaev, but Brady is certainly one of the best and most explosive wrestlers at welterweight. He only attempted one takedown against Morales, which failed. In his prior three fights against Leon Edwards, Gilbert Burns and Kelvin Gastelum, Brady landed 17 takedowns, including no fewer than five in any of the three bouts.
Brady is very heavy from top position and has an underrated submission game. Quite simply, he's not the type of guy you want leaning on you for an extended period of time.
Buckley's grappling game is strange. We've seen him use his offensive wrestling game to do damage in the past, but he lost to Usman because he allowed four takedowns and nearly 13 minutes worth of control time. I expect a very similar game plan from Brady. Joaquin is going to be in a world of trouble if he didn't make any adjustments in recent months.
Buckley doesn't throw as much as I would like (3.88 significant strikes landed per minute) but with 15 career wins via knockout, he definitely has the power edge. Toss in the fact my biggest concern regarding Brady is a potential lack of durability, and Buckley is plenty live here (although I'd feel better about his chance if this was a five-round fight and he had a potential extra 10 minutes to land some sort of bomb).
From Buckley's perspective, I can see this playing out very similarly to the Usman fight. The difference here is that he only has three rounds to try to land some sort of nuke and put Brady away, while in that one he had five rounds.
Overall, I think Buckley's win condition is too narrow given the fact he isn't providing you with much value as far as saving money for your lineup.
UFC 328 PICK: Brady
Lightweight
King Green (34-17-1, 1NC) v. Jeremy Stephens (29-22-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Green ($9,000), Stephens ($7,200)
Vegas Odds: Green (-340), Stephens (+270)
Green has essentially been a .500 fighter for the better part of a decade, but he's still plenty capable of a big performance now and then, as we saw in his second-round knockout win over Daniel Zellhuber in February (in enemy territory in Mexico City, no less). I typically find it very difficult to back Green because you never know what type of effort you are going to get, but on paper, this is a significantly easier fight for him.
Stephens will be 40 years old a couple weeks after this event takes place. He returned to the UFC last May for the first time since November 2022. At the time, it was widely assumed Jeremy was placed on the card to sell tickets in his hometown of Des Moines, Iowa, but Stephens showed pretty well in a competitive unanimous decision loss to Mason Jones, and now he'll get another shot here against Green.
Stephens has exactly one victory in his last 10 fights. He's 1-8 (1NC) during that span. The one win was a split decision win over "Myles Price" in PFL in June 2022. His last UFC victory was a knockout of Josh Emmett in February 2018.
Both of these guys are better grapplers than they get credit for, but neither use it all that much and given that they're a combined 78 years old, my guess is they just go out and try to put on a show in opening the main card of a numbered event.
Stephens showed in the Jones fight that he's still plenty capable of generating offense, but his defense, which was never a strength to begin with, appeared worse than ever.
Jeremy was struggling to get his head off the center line and move his feet, which isn't a surprise given his brawling tendencies.
Green just torched a taller, longer, more athletic opponent in Zellhuber. A good portion of that was the fact he mixed in three takedowns, but there was a clear speed discrepancy between the two and if he's doing that to Zellhuber, he should be able to do it to Stephens without issue.
Backing a 39-year-old Green at this price is never going to feel good, but Stephens is essentially unplayable at this point. Perhaps there's one or two extremely low-level lightweights on the roster that I'd pick him over, but none come to mind off the top of my head. Jeremy can take a beating and I can easily see him seeing the final bell, but I think Green is too fast and has too much volume on his side.
UFC 328 PICK: Green
OTHER FIGHTS
Middleweight
Ateba Gautier (10-1-0) v. Ozzy Diaz (10-3-0)
DK Salaries: Gautier ($9,800), Diaz ($6,400)
Vegas Odds: Gautier (-1100), Diaz (+700)
UFC 328 PICK: Gautier
Welterweight
Joel Alvarez (23-3-0) v. Yaroslav Amosov (29-1-0)
DK Salaries: Alvarez ($7,700), Amosov ($8,500)
Vegas Odds: Alvarez (+155), Amosov (-185)
UFC 328 PICK: Amosov
Lightweight
Grant Dawson (23-3-1) v. Mateusz Rebecki (20-4-0)
DK Salaries: Dawson ($8,300), Rebecki ($7,900)
Vegas Odds: Dawson (-170), Rebecki (+140)
UFC 328 PICK: Dawson
Lightweight
Jim Miller (38-19-0, 1NC) v. Jared Gordon (21-8-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Miller ($6,900), Gordon ($9,300)
Vegas Odds: Miller (+260), Gordon (-325)
UFC 328 PICK: Miller
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Middleweight
Roman Kopylov (14-5-0) v. Marco Tulio (14-2-0)
DK Salaries: Kopylov ($7,300), Tulio ($8,900)
Vegas Odds: Kopylov (+160), Tulio (-190)
UFC 328 PICK: Kopylov
Featherweight
Pat Sabatini (21-5-0) v. William Gomis (15-3-0)
DK Salaries: Sabatini ($9,000), Gomis ($7,200)
Vegas Odds: Sabatini (-205), Gomis (+170)
UFC 328 PICK: Sabatini
Middleweight
Baisangur Susurkaev (11-0-0) v. Djorden Santos (11-2-0)
DK Salaries: Susurkaev ($9,600), Santos ($6,600)
Vegas Odds: Susurkaev (-600), Santos (+440)
UFC 328 PICK: Susurkaev
Flyweight
Clayton Carpenter (8-2-0) v. Jose Ochoa (8-2-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Carpenter ($7,400), Ochoa ($8,800)
Vegas Odds: Carpenter (+150), Ochoa (-180)
UFC 328 PICK: Carpenter
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available. Check out DraftKings to bet on MMA Odds and use the DraftKings promo code for a great welcome offer.
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DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
