THURSDAY NIGHT
L.A. Rams (+1) at Seattle, o/u 42.5 – Thursday, 8:15 p.m. EST
The Rams roll into this one with a tiebreaker-sized lead on Seattle in the NFC West thanks to a victory in their first meeting this season in Week 11, so another win here all but locks up the division title. The first clash was a defensive battle, 21-19, but that was the only time since the beginning of November that Matthew Stafford and company have been held to less than four touchdowns. Over seven games since their bye, the Rams have gone 6-1 while averaging 35.0 points and 407 yards of offense a game, and they've topped 40 points and 500 yards in back-to-back weeks against the Cards and Lions. Stafford has a 20:3 TD:INT in those seven games as he stays in the MVP conversation, but he'll likely be without his favorite red-zone target Thursday as Davante Adams nurses a hamstring strain. No worries — Colby Parkinson has been an outstanding Plan B with six TDs in the last six games, including two last week against Detroit. Kyren Williams and Blake Corum, meanwhile, have made eight trips to the end zone the last three weeks. Both these teams have strong defenses — both top four in PPG allowed and top 10 in yards per game allowed — but it's hard to overlook just how much of a juggernaut Sean McVay's offense has been while sending three TEs out there nearly a quarter of the time, forcing defenses to guess early whether they're about to have the ball run down their throat again or whether Parkinson or Terrance Ferguson or whoever is going to leak out and create a mismatch.
If the Seahawks do pull out a win, they'll be tied with the Rams atop the division standings, but they'll still have an uphill climb to take the crown — the Rams wrap up their schedule with two also-rans in the Falcons and Cardinals (combined 8-20 record), while the Seahawks get two road games against teams fighting for playoff spots in Carolina and San Francisco (combined 17-11). Still, they'll have almost no chance at all without a win Thursday. Mike Macdonald's crew has won four consecutive thanks to a defense that has been crushing inferior offenses lately, holding the Vikings, Falcons and Colts (or, more accurately, Max Brosmer, Kirk Cousins and Philip Rivers) to just 25 total points and an average of 218.7 yards per game with nine takeaways and six sacks. Needless to say, Stafford and the Rams are a bit of a step up in competition. Sam Darnold's been hit and miss lately, failing to throw any TDs at all in three of the last five games with a 5:5 TD:INT over that stretch, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba's fallen off his 2,000-yard pace as a result. (He's currently tracking to tie Julio Jones' 2015 campaign for third all-time at a mere 1,871 yards.) JSN's really the only member of the offense making a consistent impact, though, so if DC Aden Durde's unit stumbles at all, it could be tough for the Seahawks to keep up.
Key Info
LAR injury report: WR Davante Adams (doubtful, hamstring/knee), TE Tyler Higbee (IR, ankle), RT Rob Havenstein (IR, ankle), EDGE Braden Fiske (questionable, ankle), CB Quentin Lake (IR, elbow)
SEA injury report: WR Tory Horton (IR, shin), LT Charles Cross (out, hamstring)
Slight lean: TE Colby Parkinson (SEA 31st in receiving yards per game allowed to TEs)
Slight lean: WR Cooper Kupp (LAR 22nd in DVOA vs. WR3)
Strong fade: WR Puka Nacua (SEA first in DVOA vs. WR1)
Slight fade: TE AJ Barner (LAR second in DVOA vs. TE)
Watch: Stream NFL games on Sling
NFL weather report: 10-15 mph wind, 80-90 percent chance of rain
Head-to-head record, last five-plus years including playoffs: 8-4 LAR, average score 22-19 LAR, average margin of victory seven points. The Rams have won four of the last five meetings at Lumen Field, including a 30-20 victory in the wild-card round of the 2020 season – Jared Goff's last win with the team
The Scoop: Williams collects 90 yards and a touchdown, while Corum adds 50 yards. Stafford throws for 260 yards and three TDs, one each to Parkinson, Davis Allen and Tutu Atwell. Kenneth Walker leads the SEA backfield with 70 yards. Darnold throws for 220 yards and two scores, finding JSN and Kupp, while Rashid Shaheed takes a punt to the house to keep things close. Rams 31-24
SATURDAY
Philadelphia at Washington (+6.5), o/u 44.5
Saturday, 5 p.m. EST
They did their best to blow it, but the Eagles find themselves on the verge of clinching the NFC East anyway — they'd have to lose out, and the Cowboys would have to run the table, for Philly to fail to become the division's first repeat champs since 2001-04, when Donovan McNabb and Andy Reid ruled the roost. Last week's rout of the Raiders snapped the Eagles' three-game losing streak, as the defense held Kenny Pickett and company to just 75 yards of offense and seven first downs in a 31-0 win. Saquon Barkley got into the end zone for a second straight game, the first time he's done that since Weeks 1-2, while Jalen Hurts rebounded from a four-INT performance to toss three TDs on only 15 attempts. The defending Super Bowl champions have only gone as far as DC Vic Fangio's unit has taken them this year, though. Philly's 6-0 when holding the opposition to 20 points or less, and 3-5 when it doesn't, with the team's last win against an offense it couldn't stifle coming against the Vikings in Week 7. The offense hasn't put together 400 yards since a Week 9 bye, and it's only hit that mark once in 2025.
Then again, if any defense can make the Eagles' offense look good, it's probably the Commanders. Last week's win over the Giants did snap an eight-game losing streak, but that was just a battle to see who was more dysfunctional now. With Washington out of playoff contention, Jayden Daniels has officially been shut down for the year, which is the smart decision. The second-year QB's difficulties staying healthy is bringing back unpleasant memories of Robert Griffin III, but Daniels' injuries seem to be more of the fluky variety. He's also hardly been the only key player sidelined for the Commanders in 2025, so running it back with Dan Quinn and a hopefully good draft class still seems like their best option.
Key Info
PHI injury report: LG Landon Dickerson (questionable, calf), RT Lane Johnson (questionable, foot), EDGE Jalen Carter (questionable, shoulder), S Andrew Mukuba (IR, ankle)
WAS injury report: QB Jayden Daniels (out, elbow), RB Austin Ekeler (IR, Achilles), WR Noah Brown (IR, ribs), TE Zach Ertz (IR, knee), LT Laremy Tunsil (questionable, oblique), EDGE Dorance Armstrong (IR, knee), EDGE Deatrich Wise (IR, quadricep), LB Bobby Wagner (questionable, knee), CB Trey Amos (IR, lower leg), CB Marshon Lattimore (IR, knee)
Strong lean: WR DeVonta Smith (WAS 30th in DVOA vs. WR2)
Slight lean: WR Deebo Samuel (PHI 25th in DVOA vs. WR2)
Slight fade: TE Dallas Goedert (WAS eighth in DVOA vs. TE)
Strong fade: TE Ben Sinnott / John Bates (PHI first in DVOA vs. TE)
Watch: Stream NFL games on Sling
NFL weather report: temperature in the mid-30s, 9-10 mph wind, 1-10 percent chance of rain
Head-to-head record, last five years including playoffs: 7-4 PHI, average score 28-24 PHI, average margin of victory 10 points. The Eagles had won three straight meetings at Northwest Stadium prior to last season's 36-33 Commanders victory in Week 16, when Daniels' fifth TD pass of the game found Jamison Crowder with six seconds left
The Scoop: Barkley zips for 110 combined yards and two TDs, one rushing and one receiving. Hurts throws for 200 yards and runs in a touchdown himself. Chris Rodriguez leads the WAS backfield with 60 yards and a score. Marcus Mariota throws for less than 200 yards and gets picked off twice, but he does find Samuel for a TD. Eagles 24-20
Green Bay at Chicago (+1), o/u 46.5 – Saturday, 8:20 p.m. EST
Just one week after beating the Bears and taking over the NFC North lead, the Packers handed it right back by losing in Denver while Chicago stomped Cleveland at Soldier Field. This division could go right down to the wire, but the Pack do at least have a somewhat easier closing slate, facing the Ravens and Vikings (combined 13-15 record) instead of the 49ers and Lions (combined 18-10). The loss to the Broncos snapped a four-game win streak for Matt LaFleur's squad, but it was the defense that let it down, something that can't be surprising after Micah Parsons was lost to an ACL tear. The injury leaves a massive hole in the pass rush, and in the team's Super Bowl hopes. There'll be more pressure on Jordan Love and the offense as a result, especially with Josh Jacobs also banged up, and while Love did throw multiple INTs last week for the first time all season, that was against Patrick Surtain and an elite Denver secondary. If he does what he did against Chicago last time out — 68.0 percent completion rate, 9.4 YPA and a 3:1 TD:INT — the visitors should still be in good shape in this one.
It's really tough to get a read on Caleb Williams' development. Last week's 60.7 percent completion rate was his best mark since Week 8, but a 12:2 TD:INT over the last seven games is nothing to sneeze at. Ben Johnson's been riding his running game during that time anyway as the Bears have gone 6-1 — D'Andre Swift has 471 rushing yards, three TDs and a 5.2 YPC in the last six games, while Kyle Monangai has 495 yards, four TDs and a 4.8 YPC in the last seven. It's not quite Ram or Lion levels of production from the backfield, but it'll do. DC Dennis Allen's unit has gotten healthier, and stingier, during that span as well. Chicago's held four of the last six opponents to 20 points or less, though Green Bay was one of the exceptions, averaging 18.5 PPG allowed and 314.5 yards per game allowed with 11 takeaways and 12 sacks. With three strong teams in both the NFC North and NFC West, someone's going to get left out of the playoff picture, and from that perspective next week's trip to San Francisco might end up being more important to the Bears' postseason chances. Of course, just winning the North would make things a lot easier.
Key Info
GB injury report: RB Josh Jacobs (questionable, knee/ankle), RB MarShawn Lloyd (IR, hamstring), WR Christian Watson (questionable, chest), WR Dontayvion Wicks (questionable, ankle), TE Tucker Kraft (IR, knee), C Elgton Jenkins (IR, lower leg), RT Zach Tom (questionable, knee), EDGE Micah Parsons (IR, knee), DT Devonte Wyatt (IR, ankle), S Evan Williams (questionable, knee)
CHI injury report: RB D'Andre Swift (questionable, groin), WR Rome Odunze (questionable, foot), WR Luther Burden (questionable, ankle), TE Cole Kmet (questionable, ankle), LB Tremaine Edmunds (IR, groin), CB Kyler Gordon (out, groin)
Slight lean: WR Jayden Reed (CHI 30th in receiving yards per game allowed to WR2s)
Strong lean: WR Luther Burden (GB 32nd in DVOA vs. WR2)
Slight fade: WR Christian Watson (CHI eighth in DVOA vs. WR1)
Slight fade: TE Colston Loveland (GB fifth in DVOA vs. TE)
Watch: Stream NFL games on Sling
NFL weather report: temperature in the low 30s, 10-20 mph wind, 5-15 percent chance of snow
Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 10-1 GB, average score 30-19 GB, average margin of victory 11 points. The Packers have won six straight games at Soldier Field by an average score of 26-15, with Jordan Love responsible for the last two victories
The Scoop: Jacobs starts, but Emanuel Wilson leads the GB backfield with 90 combined yards and a score. Love throws for 230 yards and two touchdowns, hitting Reed and John FitzPatrick. Swift churns out 80 yards and a TD, while Monangai adds 50 yards. Williams throws for less than 200 yards and two scores, one each to Burden and DJ Moore. Packers 24-21
Last week's record: 9-7, 10-6 ATS, 10-6 o/u
2025 record: 143-80-1 (.641), 120-98-6 ATS (.550), 111-112-1 o/u (.498)
