Ten games comprise our main slate Tuesday at FanDuel, with first pitch at 7:05 p.m. EDT. Shohei Ohtani at $11,000 leads four arms priced in five figures, with just two more in the $9,000 tier, so just 30 percent of the pitching options present as true pay-ups.
Coors Field is present, giving us our only double-digit run total. Only two other games have totals at 9.0, so despite the lack of elite pitching, scoring isn't expected to be plentiful. Behind Ohtani, the Dodgers (-225) are the slate's biggest favorite, followed by the Mets (-172). Weather is going to factor Tuesday, as it appears to be rainy in St. Louis and cold/possibly snowy in Denver. Those two have serious postponement potential as of early Tuesday. Wind can play a factor in Anaheim, San Francisco and New York. This should create a fun and busy lineup lock, but I will exclude those potentially wet spots from consideration, taking a beyond-obvious Juan Soto at $3,700 out of play.
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Pitching
Gavin Williams, CLE at KC ($10,800): This slate is pretty gross on the mound, and the $200 discount from Ohtani may not be enough to merit rostering Williams. It looks like a nice spot, though. He's dominated this division foe, allowing a .167 average and .565 OPS across 120 plate appearances. Williams' season-long body of work is impressive as well, posting a career-high 11.0 K/9, a 2.70 ERA and 3.23 xFIP and a 50.5 percent ground ball rate. Likely inbound winds also aid the profile. Logan Webb ($9,200) looks appealing too as a "paydown" option in the top tier.
Jameson Taillon, CHC vs. CIN ($8,500): It's simply a question of how many homers will Taillon allow. He's already surrendered nine in 34.1 innings, and the Reds have taken him deep seven times in 112 plate appearances. But despite the frequent long balls, Taillon has allowed more than three runs in just two of his six starts. Cincinnati has a low 3.4 run expectancy and on a slate such as this where pitching is murky, taking a "safe", middling option can be the right path. I'm not sure I can call Taillon safe, but the books at least suggest he is. The Reds are hitting .264 off him.
Eduardo Rodriguez, ARI vs. PIT ($7,600): Rodriguez hasn't been good over his last three, allowing 10 runs in 14.2 innings. But he went for 30+ FDP in his first three and there's reason to believe he can find success against the Pirates, highlighted by the Pirates' 27.2 percent K rate off lefties. They also come with a weak .125 ISO and below average 95 wRC+, and a low 8.9 percent walk rate. That's been Rodriguez' issue. If he can limit free passes and fan one or more an inning, we'll get a fair return.
Top Targets
So about those Taillon homers... Elly De La Cruz ($4,200) is 5-for-14 (.357) with two homers and a 1.257 OPS against him.
The Dodgers have a sound 5.9 run expectancy, but it's a left-handed heavy lineup against Peter Lambert, who's allowing a .215 wOBA to opposite-handed bats and .414 to same-sided bats. Buck that trend and consider Dodger lefties, or play the trend and consider a slumping Andy Pages ($3,600) or Teoscar Hernandez ($3,000).
Bargain Bats
I don't find myself interested in stacking the Rangers because they simply haven't been good enough to justify it, but I do want shares against Elmer Rodriguez in his second start. He walked one per inning and the 4.50 ERA came with a 7.88 xFIP. Corey Seager ($3,100) has the best name recognition. Josh Jung ($3,200) has a team-best .433 wOBA and 177 wRC+ off righties, followed by Brandon Nimmo ($3,000) with a .377 wOBA and 139 wRC+. Take your pick based on what holes remain in your build.
I feel similarly about the Giants; they aren't good enough to stack, but we've got outbound winds and Walker Buehler has been terrible on the road (13.50 ERA, .465 wOBA to righties, .515 to lefties). There's absolutely no BvP success unfortunately. Bryce Eldridge ($2,000) is minimally priced, while Willy Adames ($2,700) or Matt Chapman ($2,700) can also slot in.
Manny Machado ($3,100) is hitting .302 in 47 plate appearances against Webb, enough of a body of work to consider him as a stable option to round out lineups.
Stacks to Consider
Cubs vs. Andrew Abbott (Reds): Nico Hoerner ($3,700), Seiya Suzuki ($3,500), Alex Bregman ($2,800)
Abbott has actually been more vulnerable to lefties in limited exposure, and worse at home, so the profile doesn't immediately jump out. But the Cubs have strong numbers against lefties and a solid 4.9 run expectancy. Hoerner is hitting .316 over his last seven and has a .437 wOBA and 182 wRC+ off southpaws. Suzuki sits at .431/178. Bregman isn't in elite form, but gives us a third top of the order option for a pretty cheap price, and despite the lack of elite success, he's got an above average 114 wRC+ off lefties.
Diamondbacks vs. Bubba Chandler (Pirates): Corbin Carroll ($3,700), Geraldo Perdomo ($3,000), Ketel Marte ($2,900)
You can see the slouching prices on Perdomo and Marte are a clear result of slumps, but I'll take the opportunity to buy their potential in what seems like a plus matchup. Chandler is allowing a .476 wOBA and 1.113 OPS to lefties on the road. That's the extent of the analysis; we can stack three lefties atop the order for a fair price. Arizona has a 5.1 run expectancy.
