Justin Fields

Armed with the first pick in this year’s draft, the Bears cut bait on Fields, the 11th overall pick from 2021, and traded him to the Steelers for a mere sixth-rounder. Fields is expected to back up Russell Wilson, though the team hasn't given any guarantees for the Week 1 starting job, with coach Mike Tomlin only saying that Wilson has "pole position." The biggest problem for Fields is that his accuracy has not improved much through three years. Last season, he ranked 28th in the league in on-target percentage (68.1) and 29th in completion percentage (61.4). His downfield passing, though, greatly improved (thank you, DJ Moore). Not only did Fields look downfield often -- his average target depth was 8.0 yards (11th), throwing deep on 14.3 percent of attempts (2nd) -- he was on target with 51.9 percent of his attempts of 20-plus yards (11th) with seven TDs and two INTs. Those are better numbers than Wilson’s, by the way. Fields’ fantasy value, though, is built on rushing. Despite missing four and a half games with a thumb injury, he was second among QBs with 657 rushing yards and ran for four scores. Fields finished as QB6 the year prior and has more potential fantasy value than Wilson, but the 25-year-old might not get the chance to show it in 2024, the final season of his rookie contract.

Fields finished sixth in fantasy scoring among quarterbacks last season, almost completely thanks to rushing production. He had the second most rushing yards by a QB in league history and added eight rushing touchdowns in 15 games. Fields ran for at least 70 yards three times, including totals of 132, 147 and an all-time QB-record 178 in Week 9. His passing, though, did not improve much from his woeful rookie season. Fields ranked 29th in on-target percentage (68.2) and 31st in completion percentage (60.4). His 3.5 INT rate ranked 32nd of 33 qualified QBs, and despite his big arm, Fields ranked among the least effective QBs for downfield passing by most metrics. But Fields had little help in an offense devoid of playmakers. That’s why the Bears traded this year’s No. 1 overall pick to the Panthers for standout WR DJ Moore (and more draft picks). Moore gives Fields a legitimate No. 1 receiver and allows Darnell Mooney to return to a secondary role after being miscast last year (before a Week 12 season-ending injury). Chase Claypool, a non-factor last year after a midseason trade, could have a bigger role after an offseason to dive into OC Luke Getsy’s playbook. At tight end, Cole Kmet and Robert Tonyan are both capable pass catchers. The offensive line is a potential weak point, but 10th overall pick Darnell Wright should immediately upgrade RT. Fields at least has a better set up entering his third season, so even if his rushing regresses slightly, modest improvements in accuracy and passing volume could push him into the top 5 of fantasy quarterbacks.

Fields endured a rough rookie year after taking the starting job Week 3 last season. The dual-threat QB was only a threat on the ground (420 yards, two TD), while his on-target percentage (70.0) ranked 29th and his completion percentage (58.9) was 30th. He tried to put his strong arm to use with a 9.8-yard average target depth, second in the league only to Russell Wilson, and his downfield passing was mostly middle of the pack (the four INTs on attempts of 20-plus yards notwithstanding). That's a starting point for new offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, the QBs coach and passing game coordinator in Green Bay the last three years, though the Bears didn't get Fields much else in the way of help this offseason. RB David Montgomery and TE Cole Kmet are useful on short throws, but neither has been a threat downfield, and the wideout group looks thin beyond de facto No. 1 Darnell Mooney. The Bears added only Byron Pringle and Equanimeous St. Brown in free agency to replace Allen Robinson, later drafting 25-year-old speedster Velus Jones in the third round. Fields has a nice foundation of rushing stats to build fantasy value, but his passing still needs to take a major jump, and he won't have a strong group of receivers supporting him.

The Bears traded up to select Fields 11th overall in this year's draft, hoping they've found their franchise quarterback after finally giving up on Mitchell Trubisky. Fields is a strong-armed, accurate passer with good size (6-3, 227) and excellent speed. He ran a 4.46 40 at his pro day, even more impressive considering his weight. Fields' mobility might be his best asset. He can throw on the run and uses his legs to make something out of nothing when plays break down. At Ohio State, he got into trouble when he held the ball too long and sometimes failed to work through progressions, though the notion that he's a one-read QB seems overblown. He'll have time to work on those issues, as he's expected to back up free-agent Andy Dalton to start the season. If forced into action, or if coach Matt Nagy decides the future is now, Fields can probably get by on his outstanding athletic ability while he develops as a passer. Plus, he has playmaker Allen Robinson to lean on, and the Bears should get bigger contributions from deep threat Darnell Mooney and TE Cole Kmet, the team's second-round pick a year ago. Chicago also addressed the O-Line in the draft with second-round pick Teven Jenkins (6-6, 317), who is expected to start at left tackle. The Bears say they'll be patient with Fields, but it will surprise no one if he moves into the starting job this season. If so, he certainly has fantasy upside as a dual-threat QB.