DK Metcalf

Metcalf is one of the NFL's all-time physical freaks and has thoroughly defied the pre-draft medical concerns that dropped him to 64th overall in 2019. Still, he feels like somewhat of a disappointment, even if it's hard to pick out a specific weakness in his game. Metcalf erupted for 83-1,303-10 in his second season and hasn't stopped scoring touchdowns since (26 in three subsequent years), but his other numbers have been far less impressive -- averages of 77 catches for 1,043 yards on 129.7 targets, at a 59.4 percent catch rate and 8.0 YPT. Part of that entails the change from prime Russell Wilson to a declining/injured Wilson and then Geno Smith. Another part is that the Seahawks were 32nd, 22nd and 32nd in offensive snaps the past three years, sitting about 7 percent below league-average in play volume since the NFL moved to a 17-game schedule. Swapping out HC Pete Carroll and OC Shane Waldron for Mike McDaniel and Ryan Grubb might help with the team-level volume, but Metcalf again again faces strong competition for WR targets from Tyler Lockett and 2023 first-round pick Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Annual predictions of Lockett's share decreasing still haven't manifested, and by the time that inevitably happens (or he leaves) it might be Smith-Njigba benefitting more so than Metcalf. On the bright side, Metcalf is still only 26, immensely talented and has never finished below 900 yards or six touchdowns. He's at least a solid starter for fantasy teams, and a coaching change might be the shake-up he needs to finally get back to his 2020 production and/or push toward 30 percent target share for the first time.

Metcalf's size/speed combination is unmatched, but from a statistical standpoint he's only put it all together in one of his four NFL seasons -- in 2020 when he went for 83-1,303-10. He got back on the right side of 1,000 yards last year, barely, yet finished with a career-low six touchdowns amidst a breakout season from Geno Smith. While Metcalf's 141 targets were a career high and easily a team high, Smith was actually more efficient when throwing to Tyler Lockett and his tight ends. Lockett, in particular, had three more touchdowns and only 15 fewer yards on 24 fewer targets than Metcalf. Some of that might just be luck, but at what point do we start to consider the possibility that Metcalf is merely a good player and not a great one despite his physical gifts? On the other hand, he's only 25 and has never missed a game after a bunch of injuries in college, so giving him one more chance to join the elite isn't the worst idea even with rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba adding to the target competition.

Metcalf's third season was a step back from his second, though a dozen touchdowns softened the blow and he played every game for a third consecutive year. That last part is key, as a sketchy medical history was perhaps the biggest reason Metcalf wasn't picked until late in the second round in 2020. In terms of physical tools, he's an early first-rounder through and through, having put up a 4.33 40 and 40.5-inch vertical at the 2019 Combine. Metcalf struggles a bit with the finer points of route-running, as is common for oversized wideouts, but he showed in 2020 that he can do damage all over the field nonetheless. In 2021, however, his connection with Russell Wilson was inconsistent, with Metcalf catching only 54 percent of the targets he saw from the star quarterback. Wilson's finger injury might have been a big part of Seattle's struggles as a team, but Metcalf can't totally blame it for his disappointing year, as he had just one 100-yard outing in Wilson's 14 starts and finished the season with 208 fewer yards than Tyler Lockett on 22 more targets. While the chemistry might have been an issue, Metcalf now faces a much bigger problem, catching passes Geno Smith. Long term, things look far more promising, as the Wilson deal with Denver netted a boatload of draft picks to rebuild the offense around Metcalf, who signed a three-year extension in July.

Through the first 11 weeks last season, Metcalf had a 90-58-1,039-9 line (with 17.9 YPC and 11.5 YPT), a 1,500-yard, 13-TD pace. But he had only one TD over the season’s final five weeks and never again eclipsed 100 yards in a game. The problem was Seattle’s schedule (they faced the Nos. 1, 2 and 9 pass defenses) and their inability to protect Russell Wilson, whose record-pace numbers also cratered. But coach Pete Carroll does prefer a more run-heavy offense, something that’s limited Wilson and his receivers for nearly a decade. In fact, Wilson himself agreed to waive his no-trade clause if the Seahawks were willing to move him, presumably to a team that would “let Russ cook.” Assuming Wilson stays put, Metcalf should reprise his status as his monstrous big-play weapon. Physically, Metcalf is Julio Jones with 15 more pounds of muscle. Or perhaps Terrell Owens with more speed. The last (and perhaps only) physical freak at Metcalf’s level was peak Calvin Johnson. At 6-4, an absurdly jacked 235 and running a 4.33 40, Metcalf can get behind any defense, and Wilson has the arm to reach him. But his production fell late in the season in part because Wilson didn’t have time for Metcalf’s deeper routes (13.3 aDOT, 4th) to develop. Bottom line, there’s some uncertainty, but if Wilson sticks around — something that seems likely — Metcalf again should compete with Tyreek Hill to be the league’s most dangerous game breaker.

A poor showing in the combine agility drills (three-cone drill and short shuttle) dinged Metcalf's draft stock, and the Seahawks wisely bought low with the 64th overall pick in last year's draft. Metcalf's numbers were solid enough - 15.5 YPC, 9.0 YPT and four catches of 40-plus on only 100 targets - but they don't include the wild-card game when he torched the Eagles for 160 yards and a score. What stands out most about Metcalf is his freakish size/speed combination - think Terrell Owens with more speed, or Julio Jones with more muscle. At 6-4, 229, and running a 4.33 40, Metcalf is off the charts athletically, and his 40.5-inch vertical leap and 134-inch broad jump show his explosiveness. He'll never be the quick-in-and-out-of-breaks slot type, but that hardly matters when you can run past, jump above and overpower the unlucky defender who happens to be assigned to you. Metcalf is also ideally built for red-zone work - 18 targets last season - and likely will get more work from in close during his second season. It also helps to be paired with one of the league's elite quarterbacks in Russell Wilson, who routinely makes downfield throws after escaping the pocket, though it hurts that the Seahawks are so run-heavy (23rd in pass attempts). Moreover, Tyler Lockett is still around as a co-No. 1, and the Seahawks acquired tight end Greg Olsen this offseason.

The Seahawks under offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer rarely throw - they were last with 427 passing attempts last year - but someone has to receive those targets. With Doug Baldwin retiring and returning top receiver Tyler Lockett seeing only 70 targets last year, Metcalf could step into a large role right away. At 6-3, 228, and with 4.33 speed, he's a freak in the Julio Jones mold, a rare athlete at the position you'll see once every five years. But his times in the agility drills at the combine were terrible, and it's possible that caused him to slip to the back of the second round. Look for Lockett to see most of his work in the slot, and Metcalf to vie for targets on the outside, both down the field and in the red zone. David Moore is still around, however, and the team used its fourth-round pick on Gary Jennings, another athletic wideout who was more productive than Metcalf in college.