Texas vs Vanderbilt Best Bets
Heading into this season, the assertion that the Texas against Vanderbilt game would be a matchup between the ninth-ranked team and the 20th-ranked team wouldn't have felt unreasonable. The Longhorns had proven formidable but dropped one along the way after starting the season ranked first. Vanderbilt had kept the momentum from last season going and picked up an upset along the way to make this a ranked-on-ranked matchup.
Of course, since you're reading this and possibly considering betting on this game, I trust you know that the Commodores are the team ranked ninth and the Longhorns are the team ranked 20th. If Vandy can score a massive road win, it can drop Texas from first in the preseason poll to unranked to start November. It would also, technically, be an upset.
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Texas vs. Vanderbilt Betting Odds
Spread: Texas -2.5 (BetMGM Sportsbook), Vanderbilt +3 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Total: 46.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Moneyline: Texas -140 (BetMGM Sportsbook), Vanderbilt +130 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
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When you consider the old adage that being at home earns you three points on the spread, this is essentially a toss-up. That makes sense to me. The Longhorns are at home, and even though they don't seem like title contenders, they aren't Penn State or something. On the flip side, the Commodores are a fun story because they are ranked ninth even though they are, you know, the Commodores, but they aren't Ohio State, or even Alabama. Of course, there is also one notable question mark related to this game and how it ends up looking when it kicks off.
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Texas vs. Vanderbilt Betting Picks
The Bevo-sized question is the status of Arch Manning. He was placed in concussion protocol during the Mississippi State game in Week 9, and because of the rules related to concussion protocol in college football the green light can't officially be given until pretty much down to the wire, especially for a game starting at 11 a.m. local time down in Austin. Manning has returned to practice, which is a good sign, and it seems he's heading toward clearing concussion protocol. That's just something you really can't project because we're talking about brain functionality.
That being said, if Manning can't play, it wouldn't be as big a concern as many assumed heading into this season. He played well against Mississippi State, but on the year, my overarching thought has been, "This dude ain't it." Manning has thrown 15 touchdowns against six picks, he's been under 200 yards passing four times in eight games, and he hasn't even done as much damage with his legs as expected. He's rushed for 199 yards, and while he has six running scores, five came against the trio of San Jose State, UTEP, and Sam Houston. It's not just the numbers. When I watch Manning play, which isn't hard to do given how often Texas gets showcased on television, he just doesn't look that good. Certainly he doesn't look like a future NFL quarterback. If it's Matthew Caldwell instead of Manning, my feeling only changes a degree or two.
Texas wins with defense, and it has lost in close games thanks to its defense as well. The Longhorns have lost twice, so they have to win out to make the playoffs, but they opened the season with a 14-7 loss to a formidable Ohio State team and then lost 29-21 to Florida, both road losses. Texas ranks 13th in SP+ on the strength of its third-ranked defense.
Vanderbilt, though, ranks 15th in SP+. It isn't as one-dimensional, either. The Commodores don't rank worse than 32nd in any category, which is their defensive SP+ ranking. Diego Pavia, like Arch Manning, doesn't seem like a future NFL quarterback, but the difference is that Pavia is a collegiate star. I will point out, though, his numbers are heavily boosted by games against Charleston Southern and Utah State. If I am going to quibble with Manning, I should quibble with Pavia.
The Commodores are coming off big wins against LSU and Missouri, but both were at home. Their best road win this season is South Carolina. When Vandy visited Alabama, it lost 30-14. Bama is better than Texas, but that was a definitive loss.
If I thought Vanderbilt was going to win, I'd take the Vandy moneyline because I wouldn't feel the need to hedge on the potential for a one-or-two point loss. I don't think that will be the case, though. The Commodores are a fun story and the Longhorns are dealing with the negative attention of being 6-2 after being the preseason number one. In the end, though, these teams are evenly matched, Texas' defense is the best unit across these teams, and Texas is at home.
Texas vs. Vanderbilt Best Bet: Texas -2.5 (BetMGM Sportsbook)
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Texas vs. Vanderbilt Betting Predictions
I expect a low-scoring game, with both quarterbacks having a rough day. If Manning is under center, I expect some more "This was the hottest quarterback prospect in years?" chatter. If anybody is thinking Pavia will be a Heisman player, I think things will be tough enough for those believers to say, "Okay, maybe not." The Longhorns' talent will win out, with the help of home-field advantage.
Texas 23, Vanderbilt 17
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Texas vs. Vanderbilt Player Prop Picks for Saturday, November 1
Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt – Under 47.5 rushing yards (FanDuel)
When it comes to rushing yards for a quarterback, sacks count as negative rushing yards, of course. Texas has racked up 28 sacks, including seven for Colin Simmons. Pavia has only been held under 47.5 rushing yards twice this season for all intents and purposes (i.e. he could have done it against Charleston Southern had he bothered), but that includes last week when Missouri held him to 20 yards.
Eli Stowers – Under 40.5 receiving yards (FanDuel)
No Texas players are in the prop bet mix, presumably owing to the status of Arch Manning. Stowers is considered one of the best tight end in college football, but his three games with more than 45 receiving yards were against Charleston Southern, Utah State, and Georgia State. This matchup is not one of those matchups.
