CFB Picks: Memphis vs Rice Best Bets
It's Week 10, and we have a clash in the American Conference on Friday night at Rice Stadium at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
The No. 25 Memphis Tigers (7-1, 3-1 American) meet the Rice Owls (4-4, 1-3), and the Tigers look to keep hope alive for a spot in the conference championship game. Memphis is currently a half-game back of Tulane, and a game and a half behind Navy, while it is in a four-team logjam with a 3-1 conference record.
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Memphis vs Rice Betting Odds for Week 10
Spread: Memphis -13.5 (-120 FanDuel Sportsbook); Rice +14 (-110 Bet365 Sportsbook)
Total: Over 48.5 (-105 ESPN Bet); Under 49 (-110 Fanatics)
Moneyline: Memphis -600 (DraftKings); Rice +480 (FanDuel)
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Memphis vs Rice Betting Picks for Week 10
Memphis inexplicably lost to UAB two weeks ago, falling 31-24 in Birmingham as a 24-point favorite in one of the largest upsets of the entire college football season. The Tigers rebounded at the Simmons Bank Liberty Bowl with a 34-31 win over previously-ranked South Florida, cashing as a 3-point underdog as the Over (59) cashed, snapping back on track.
In last week's 34-31 win over the Bulls, Memphis was horrible against the run, allowing 295 yards to USF, while allowing 269 yards through the air. Memphis managed 129 yards on the ground and 321 passing yards, with QB Brendon Lewis completing 27-of-44 passing for 307 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions, while RBs Greg Desrosiers Jr. and Frank Peasant each scored rushing TDs.
Memphis, who has had the likes of Calvin Austin III, Duke Calhoun and Anthony Miller pass through its halls in recent years, have two more impressive receivers in this year's class. WR Jamari Hawkins led the way with three grabs for 85 yards last week, while WR Cortez Braham Jr. had seven receptions for 75 yards and two scores vs. USF.
Rice picked up a 37-34 win in overtime last week as a 10-point underdog against UConn, hitting the Over (48.5) for the second consecutive game. The Owls halted a three-game losing streak, and they're 3-4 against the spread (ATS) in the past seven outings. The Over has cashed in the past two games, while going 5-2 in the previous seven contests.
Owls RB Quinton Jackson had a giant game against the Huskies, running 21 times for 168 yards and three touchdowns, and he added three grabs for 80 yards and a score. The Owls rolled up 300 yards on the ground, 20 first downs and it had just one penalty with zero turnovers. Jenkins will be a handful for a Memphis defense that struggles to stop the run.
The best play on the board is to take the Over. Rice can run the ball with authority, and Memphis has a very strong offense, and an inability to stop the run, which is the strength of the Owls. It's tempting to take the ranked team laying the points, but the sour taste of a straight-up loss as a 24-point favorite in the most recent road game at UAB is still in our mouths.
Memphis vs Rice Expert Pick: Over 48.5 (-105 ESPNBet Sportsbook)
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Memphis vs Rice Predictions for Week 10
The total is pretty clear in this American Conference battle. Memphis and Rice can score plenty, and the Tigers can hemorrhage rushing yards and points on defense. It's not a great combination, but they manage to find ways to win more often than not.
The Owls are going to want to get the ball into the hands of Jackson early and often. The problem for Rice is if Memphis builds a big lead, can it pass its way back into the game? The Owls have managed just 103.6 passing yards per game, which ranks 134th in the nation. It's generally run, run and run some more.
Rice QB Chase Jenkins has completed 69.4 percent of his passes for 744 yards, five touchdowns and just one pick, but passing isn't close to the first choice. Jenkins has run for 332 yards and four scores, and those TDs are second on the team behind only Jackson.
We're going to know pretty early if backing Rice and the points is a good idea or not. In the first quarter, if Memphis should fire out to a 14-0 lead, or lead by 14 or more points at halftime, it might start to abandon the run game, and try to get out of its element to get back into the game. If that happens, things could snowball in a hurry, going from bad to worse. That's the problem with one-dimensional teams. When they have to get away from what they do best, they're like a fish out of water.
Still, Memphis can't stop the run, and it is just so-so on the road. We'll take Rice to keep it within two touchdowns, but don't be surprised if it is a close shave. If you buy a half-point or point, getting this to +14.5 or +15, even better.
In addition, if you play the alternate spread and total, essentially a 7-point teaser, with Memphis -6.5 and Over 41.5, that is basically the same price as a singular bet, -119. It's worth a strong play if you're a little on the conservative side, but want some action in this Friday nighter.
Score Prediction: Memphis 41, Rice 27
Memphis vs Rice Player Prop Picks for Saturday, October 31
RB Quinton Jackson, Rice - Over 60.5 Rushing Yards (-114 FanDuel Sportsbook)
You knew this was coming in the props. We've been trumpeting Jackson's success last week against UConn, and talking about the inability for Memphis to stop the run. It's actually quite shocking to see QJ's target yardage number so low. He has three 100-yard games this season, and he has 60 or more rushing yards five times in eight games. Jackson averages 5.6 yards per carry (YPC), and he averages approximately 15 carries per contest. If you do the math, that's about 84.0 rushing yards per game.
Greg Desrosiers Jr, Memphis - To Score 2+ Touchdowns (+320 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Desrosiers Jr. was stymied by USF last Saturday, running 11 times for just 33 yards and a touchdown, averaging a season-low 3.0 YPC. He did tie a season-high with six catches and a best of 45 yards, however. Desrosiers has six rushing touchdowns and one receiving score across his six games. He rumbled for 204 yards and three scores at FAU earlier this season on Sept. 27. When he gets going downhill, he is very hard to stop, and he just has a nose for the goal line. For the chance to multiply up by three times, this prop is worth a roll of the dice.
