And now we're down to eight. The Elite Eight tips off on Saturday as we reach the Regional Final portion of March Madness. Here are my predictions for each game on Saturday.
Top College Basketball Best Bets for Today
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Iowa 
vs. Illinois
Illinois won the only regular-season matchup between these teams, 75-69, at Carver-Hawkeye Arena. The Illini jumped out to a 21-7 lead and never looked back. After analyzing this matchup, it seems history has a good chance of repeating itself.
The Hawkeyes' defense is solid, ranking 32nd in adjusted efficiency, although it's overly reliant on turnovers. Iowa is highly skilled at generating takeaways, ranking 16th in turnover percentage among all D-1 teams, and while this is a great ability, it's also Iowa's only reliable way of getting stops. The Hawkeyes are allowing opponents to make 54 percent of shots inside the arc (282nd) and 34 percent beyond the arc (163rd), resulting in an effective field goal percentage allowed that ranks 251st.
Additionally, another red flag for Iowa's defense is that it often gets flagged on the court, as it were. The Hawkeyes rank 271st in free-throw attempt rate allowed, including the worst mark in the Big Ten during the conference season, a foreboding sign when playing against the Illini, who are making 78 percent of their foul shots, the 20th-highest mark nationally.
The other problem for the Hawkeyes' defense is the fact that Illinois rarely commits turnovers, boasting the 10th-best turnover percentage among all D-1 teams. It seems Iowa faces a major uphill battle if this holds up because Illinois is elite in most offensive categories. In addition to boasting the second-highest adjusted efficiency rating, the Illini also rank third nationally in offensive rebounding and 37th in effective field goal percentage.
In contrast, we have a more even matchup at the other end of the court. Iowa's offense ranks 20th in adjusted efficiency, while Illinois' defense ranks 21st. The Illini are a tough team to crack because, much like their offense, they don't seem to have any major weaknesses, other than rarely causing turnovers. The lack of turnovers hasn't mattered much because they consistently force difficult shots (26th in effective field goal percentage allowed), secure the glass (29th in rebounding percentage), and rarely foul (first in free-throw attempt rate allowed among all D-1 teams).
Overall, Illinois is superior at both ends of the court, and I'm not seeing any clear advantages for Iowa. For these reasons, I'm laying the points with the Fighting Illini.
College Basketball Best Bet: Illinois -7
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Purdue 
vs. Arizona
The last time Purdue and Arizona faced off was on December 16, 2023, and the Boilermakers won, 92-84. Many players from that game won't appear on Saturday, naturally, although players like Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer made a big impact in that win, combining for 53 points.
In any event, looking ahead to Saturday's game, Purdue's defense is the biggest liability in this matchup (36th in adjusted efficiency), but it has a couple of critical strengths that may be the key to staying in the game.
First, the Boilermakers usually box out opponents, ranking 37th in defensive rebounding percentage, including the second-highest mark in the Big Ten during league play. This is an essential skill when facing Arizona because the Wildcats rank fourth nationally in offensive rebounding percentage.
Second, the Boilermakers are among the best at defending without fouling, recording the eighth-lowest free-throw attempt rate allowed among all D-1 teams. This is again significant because Arizona has the seventh-highest free-throw attempt rate nationally, so the ability to prevent them from getting easy points at the charity stripe shouldn't be overlooked.
Purdue has a decent chance of making the Final Four if its defense can hold up, as the Boilermakers' offense boasts the highest adjusted efficiency rating in the nation. They don't often get to the foul line, but that's about the only thing they don't do at a high level. Purdue ranks among the top 20 teams nationally in two-point shooting (58 percent), three-point shooting (38 percent), effective field goal percentage, turnover percentage, and rebounding percentage.
Arizona's defense is similarly elite, but if there's an offense that can overcome it, it's Purdue's.
There's a chance Purdue's defense doesn't hold up, but I'm betting that Braden Smith and company have enough offensive firepower to keep the game close. I'm taking the points.
And, as a bonus, I believe a Purdue win, or a game where they take a lead, would naturally mean its offense scores more than the current projection, thus pushing the total over. I'm also taking the over in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Purdue +6 and Over 153.5
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Saturday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Saturday:
- Illinois -7
- Purdue +6
- Purdue vs. Arizona - Over 153.5
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