We'll tackle a second night of Game 1 Conference Semifinal contests on Tuesday. The action begins at 7:00 p.m. ET with the Cavaliers traveling to Detroit. The nightcap will feature the defending champions facing the Lakers in Oklahoma City. I'll use RotoWire's many tools and my prognosticating skills to identify the ideal candidates for lineup construction.
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I find myself leaning heavily toward Detroit, which is on a trajectory similar to the Knicks. Both teams struggled in the first round but found their footing in time to advance. Cleveland certainly looked strong against the Raptors at times, but they also showed some defensive cracks that need mending if they're going to succeed. Just about everyone has counted the Lakers out against the Thunder, and I can't say I blame them. A healthy Luka Doncic would have improved their odds, but GOAT candidate LeBron James can never be counted out at playoff time.
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LAL - OUT: Luka Doncic (hamstring)
Doncic remains out, giving Rui Hachimura ($5,100) a long-term promotion to the starting five.
OKC - DOUBTFUL: Jalen Williams (hamstring)
Ajay Mitchell ($5,500) is the pivot of choice for Williams.
Elite NBA DFS Players
Guards
Cade Cunningham, DET ($10,900) vs. CLE
Cunningham enters the Conference Semifinals in elite form, fresh off a 32-point, 12-assist double-double in a series-clinching win over Orlando. Over his last five playoff games, he has been the focal point of Detroit's offense, averaging 32.6 points per game and showing a high floor even in more defensive-minded contests. He's projected to maintain high volume with a line well above 5x value as the Pistons look to capitalize on their home-court advantage at Little Caesars Arena.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, OKC ($10,300) vs. LAL
SGA averaged 33.8 points per game during Oklahoma City's first-round sweep of Phoenix. He capped off that series with a 31-point performance and enters Game 1 as the heavy favorite to lead the defending champions. For tonight's matchup against the Lakers, he should excel against a Los Angeles defense that he helped defeat by an average of 32.3 points during their regular-season sweep. He's also logged several days of rest thanks to the quick demise of the Suns.
Also consider: James Harden, CLE ($8,300) @ DET
Forwards/Centers
LeBron James, LAL ($9,300) @ OKC
With Doncic on the sidelines, James is staving off Father Time and conducting his usual playoff heroics. James will face a steep challenge as the Lakers enter as massive underdogs against the defending champions. Even though Austin Reaves ($7,800) has returned to action, there's still a lot of ground to make up while accounting for Doncic's gap.
Chet Holmgren, OKC ($7,500) vs. LAL
Holmgren continues to thrive as the Thunder's most significant frontcourt presence. He remains a key part of Oklahoma City's rotation as they begin the Conference Semifinals as heavy favorites. Facing off against LeBron James is no easy task, but he should generate enough DKFPs to exceed 5x value against Ayton.
Jalen Duren, DET ($6,900) vs. CLE
Duren had one of his best games of the season in the series-clinching Game 7 win over Orlando, and it's reasonable to assume that he'll be able to hold his own against Cleveland's imposing frontcourt. He's limited by single eligibility, but his reasonable salary makes him an excellent option to fill the C or UTIL slot.
Expected NBA DFS Chalk
Evan Mobley, CLE ($7,700) @ DET
Mobley got into foul trouble early against the Raptors, and his reduced production has lowered his salary. He played second fiddle to Jarrett Allen (who we've also endorsed) and sat for long stretches because of the infractions, but he'll likely be more disciplined in his approach against Detroit. The Cavs line up pretty well against the Pistons, and although Tobias Harris is an excellent defender, the salary decrease will result in high exposure to Mobley.
Mid-Range Targets
Tobias Harris, DET ($7,100) vs. CLE
Harris is expected to play a vital role in Detroit's rotation as they look to challenge the Cavaliers' frontcourt in the opening game. The veteran excelled in the series-clinching game against the Magic alongside Cunningham, and he's priced ideally on DraftKings tonight.
Ausar Thompson, DET ($6,500) vs. CLE
We need to watch how heavily we stack Detroit, but I have to include Thompson at his reasonable salary. Thompson regressed a bit in the last game, but he exceeded 30 DKFPs three times against Orlando and popped for 45 DKFPs twice.
Also consider: Deandre Ayton, LAL ($5,500) @ OKC
NBA DFS Value Picks
Marcus Smart, LAL ($5,800) @ OKC
Smart's adept defensive skill set will probably be his most important contribution, but I'm willing to risk him against the Thunder as a consistent member of the starting five. Reaves' return hurts Luke Kennard a lot more than Smart, who posted some monstrous totals against the Rockets.
Jarrett Allen, CLE ($5,700) @ DET
Allen was unstoppable against the Raptors in Game 7, making plays all over the court. No one can underestimate the impact of playoff-tested veterans, and Allen fits that bill. I'm surprised his salary is still at this level; I expected the tour-de-force performance to raise it significantly. He probably won't replicate his recent heroics, but he's a totally reasonable option regardless.
Duncan Robinson, DET ($4,400) vs. CLE
Robinson depends heavily on his prowess beyond the arc, and he's recently been able to deliver with the deep ball. He'll be very chalky for me tonight, as his lower salary will be essential for our spending at the top. He's also given ample production in secondary categories as well, which adds to a resume that's usually very shot-dependent.
Also consider: Max Strus, CLE ($4,400) @ DET
I also implore you to examine Oklahoma City's bench. I anticipate increasing my target share in Games 2-4 after seeing the revised rotation in a blowout scenario, but I'm playing the slate a bit more conservatively before diving into that value.
