Eleven games comprise Tuesday's main slate at FanDuel, with first pitch at 7:05 p.m. EDT. Cam Schlittler at $11,300 leads five arms priced in five figures, with four more coming in at $9,000 or greater. Often throughout the season I'm willing to fade pricier arms in difficult matchups. That's not the case Tuesday, as most of the expensive options seem to be in terrific spots.
That's backed up by the betting odds. All five come in games with run totals of 7.5 or less. The Yankees (-245) and Brewers (-205) present as the slate's biggest favorites. There are some higher-scoring expectancies out there; Diamondbacks-Dodgers sits at 9.5 runs, with Pirates-Astros and Reds-Royals at 9.0. Weather doesn't look to be an asset Tuesday. Minor rain can be monitored in Atlanta, while initial indications have inbound winds across the slate (Atlanta, Chicago, New York and St. Louis).
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Pitching
Kyle Harrison, MIL vs. SF ($10,600): As the intro eludes to, there doesn't seem to be a wrong option in the upper tier. Harrison has been terrific, never allowing more than two runs in any outing and is on a brilliant stretch, having not allowed a run in 18.0 innings across his last three starts, striking out 20 while surrendering 11 hits. The Giants' strikeout rate isn't massive at 21.9 percent against lefties, but it also comes with a .127 ISO and .304 wOBA.
Grayson Rodriguez, LAA vs. COL ($9,000): It's an odd spot for Rodriguez as I find him both attractive and overpriced at the same time. He's clearly battling his command and control, walking five per nine, which gives us concerns on bulk innings providing a scoring boost. I'm also a touch surprised to find the Rockies with a slightly low 22.8 percent K rate against righties. That comes with a weak 90 wRC+ and .149 ISO. Rodriguez appears to be trending upward and this doesn't profile as a matchup for implosion. Dustin May ($8,900) is certainly in play as well at this price point.
Connor Prielipp, MIN vs. CWS ($7,400): The White Sox have hit lefties well overall with a 117 wRC+ and .343 wOBA, but it also comes with a 24.0 percent strikeout rate and they are without slugger Munetaka Murakami. Prielipp has shown elite strikeout stuff in the minors and is fanning slightly more than one per inning in his seven big-league starts, giving us enough potential to out-perform his salary. It's been a rough go for Prielipp over his last two outings, but he's pitched better at home (2.81 ERA, .256 wOBA).
Top Targets
The mass of homers Jameson Taillon is surrendering is staggering. It's resulted in a .395 wOBA surrendered to lefties. Inbound winds can temper expectations, but Nick Kurtz ($4,000) looks like a strong play, with Tyler Soderstrom ($3,000) surging of late and a cheaper upside play.
Mike Burrows is allowing a .424 wOBA and .980 OPS to lefties, something the Pirates lineup is littered with. Feel free to stack accordingly, or plug the holes to your build from any of Oneil Cruz ($4,000), Brandon Lowe ($3,700), a scorching hot Bryan Reynolds ($3,500), Ryan O'Hearn ($3,400) or Spencer Horwitz ($3,100).
Bargain Bats
Cincinnati is expected to flirt with five runs, and we can target Spencer Steer ($3,100) and/or Eugenio Suarez ($2,700) in the heart of their order for some upside as a result. Steer has a team-high .441 wOBA off lefties, while Suarez is boom or bust due to his high K rate but has a .250 ISO.
Milwaukee comes with a 5.0 run expectancy against Trevor McDonald, who's been more vulnerable to lefties. Outfield is usually easy to find options, but if you pay up elsewhere, Garrett Mitchell ($2,900) or Sal Frelick ($2,600) offer cheap entry points.
As a salary punt, the Angels' Donovan Walton ($2,500) can offer a non-zero point option. He's hitting .409 in his last six and has a .389 wOBA and 147 wC+ off righties in a game where Los Angeles is supposed to top five runs.
Stacks to Consider
Diamondbacks vs. Eric Lauer (Dodgers): Corbin Carroll ($3,800), Ketel Marte ($3,400), Nolan Arenado ($3,000)
This seems a bit too obvious, so perhaps using one or two of these options as opposed to a full stack is in play. Lauer has allowed at least one homer in seven of his eight starts, and it's lefties that are squaring him up with a .436 wOBA, perhaps making Carroll an elite stand alone option that casual folks can ignore in the LvL matchup. Marte has cooled in the last week but still is hitting .389 with five homers in his last 13 and is 8-for-21 (.381) with two homers off Lauer. Arenado gives us a third top of the order run producer. He's hitting .300 in his last five and is 8-for-27 (.296) with four homers off Lauer.
Yankees vs. Joey Cantillo (Guardians): Cody Bellinger ($3,600), Anthony Volpe ($3,400), Paul Goldschmidt ($3,200)
Yankees versus a lefty is almost always a go, and they should be amongst the highest-scoring sides Tuesday. With Ben Rice and Aaron Judge incredibly expensive though, we can attempt a secondary stack around them as a contrarian play. Goldschmidt is back in the leadoff spot and continues to stand out against southpaws, posting a .497 wOBA, 223 wRC+ and .367 ISO. Bellinger sits at .378/148/.250. Volpe makes the third piece a bit less traditional, likely hitting further down the lineup, but has six hits and a homer in his last five, and incredibly positive splits against lefties, though only 15 plate appearances.
