This past weekend in my 15-team leagues, I ran out of decent starting pitchers to use for the week. While I could take a chance on minor leaguers and injured players, in some leagues, I needed players to add to my starting lineup. Today is more of a how-to exercise than normal, with some players listed at the end. The problem is that the useful relievers cycle in and out as their roles, teams, and talent change.
I ran into a similar problem a few years ago and found a framework to find which middle relievers to target as potential five-category contributors. The goal was to get as many innings from a good pitcher who is used in high-leverage situations on a good team.
Here are the original requirements:
- Team Win% >= 45 percent: The team needs to be competitive enough to give the reliever a shot at a win.
- gmLI >= 1.1: The pitcher's manager must have enough confidence to use the pitcher in high-leverage situations.
- IP/G >= 1.0: The reliever should average more than one inning per appearance.
- K/G >= 1.1: The reliever should provide a reasonable number of strikeouts.
Since then, I've massaged the values. I've removed the 1.0 IP/G requirement. I found the original requirements to be too stringent, thereby limiting the player pool to work with. Instead of K/G, I moved to requirining relievers to have a projected K/9 of at least 9.0, an 18 percent K-BB%, and a 3.50 ERA.
Additionally, I set the leverage
This past weekend in my 15-team leagues, I ran out of decent starting pitchers to use for the week. While I could take a chance on minor leaguers and injured players, in some leagues, I needed players to add to my starting lineup. Today is more of a how-to exercise than normal, with some players listed at the end. The problem is that the useful relievers cycle in and out as their roles, teams, and talent change.
I ran into a similar problem a few years ago and found a framework to find which middle relievers to target as potential five-category contributors. The goal was to get as many innings from a good pitcher who is used in high-leverage situations on a good team.
Here are the original requirements:
- Team Win% >= 45 percent: The team needs to be competitive enough to give the reliever a shot at a win.
- gmLI >= 1.1: The pitcher's manager must have enough confidence to use the pitcher in high-leverage situations.
- IP/G >= 1.0: The reliever should average more than one inning per appearance.
- K/G >= 1.1: The reliever should provide a reasonable number of strikeouts.
Since then, I've massaged the values. I've removed the 1.0 IP/G requirement. I found the original requirements to be too stringent, thereby limiting the player pool to work with. Instead of K/G, I moved to requirining relievers to have a projected K/9 of at least 9.0, an 18 percent K-BB%, and a 3.50 ERA.
Additionally, I set the leverage requirement to look at the last two weeks, not a season-long value. I wanted pitchers who were recently used in high-leverage situations.
The key to having a few players to compare is to maximize high-leverage appearances. While I will go over some names today, a fantasy manager needs to look for guys with the best schedule among the group.
Three items need to be investigated:
Number of Games: A reliever on a team with seven or eight games should be prioritized.
Quality of Opponents: Going against weak teams means there is a better chance for a win and lower ratios.
Reliever's Previous Schedule: Throwing on Saturday and Sunday in the weekend before the week starts means that the pitcher will likely have to sit out a game.
One final note: even with the loosened requirements, the player list can be small. Feel free to loosen the requirements except the leverage value. These pitchers need to be throwing in close games to sneak in those wins and saves.
Using Steamer projections, here are the pitchers who meet the requirements who are under 95 percent rostered in the NFBC's RotoWire Online Championship:
| Name | K/9 | K%-BB% Proj | ERA Proj | gmLI | TeamWin% | Roster% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Hoffman | 11.5 | 22.2% | 3.23 | 1.6 | 58% | 21 |
| Garrett Whitlock | 10.1 | 20.4% | 3.39 | 1.1 | 54% | 17 |
| Alex Vesia | 11.6 | 19.3% | 3.45 | 1.5 | 57% | 4 |
| Garrett Cleavinger | 11.5 | 20.6% | 3.41 | 1.9 | 49% | 1 |
| Gabe Speier | 10.2 | 19.6% | 3.38 | 1.4 | 55% | 0 |
| Adrian Morejon | 9.7 | 18.9% | 3.09 | 1.3 | 54% | 0 |
Just six players make this list, but they are all widely available, with Speier being the guy I eventually rostered. (Vesia, with his seven games, was already rostered.)
I relaxed the requirements to a .400 record, 3.75 ERA projection, and 16 percent K-BB% and found the following players:
| Name | K/9 | K%-BB% Proj | ERA Proj | gmLI | TeamWin% | Roster% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Suarez | 9.0 | 17.0% | 3.40 | 2.0 | 45% | 84 |
| Abner Uribe | 10.5 | 17.0% | 3.20 | 1.9 | 61% | 77 |
| Bryan Abreu | 11.8 | 18.6% | 3.55 | 1.5 | 54% | 8 |
| Will Vest | 9.1 | 16.2% | 3.38 | 2.6 | 56% | 8 |
| Camilo Doval | 10.0 | 16.1% | 3.70 | 1.8 | 56% | 2 |
| Dylan Lee | 10.6 | 22.0% | 3.16 | 1.5 | 45% | 0 |
| Fernando Cruz | 12.0 | 19.1% | 3.52 | 1.3 | 56% | 0 |
| Julian Garcia | 10.6 | 19.1% | 3.62 | 1.2 | 50% | 0 |
A couple of guys whose managers are gambling on for saves make the list (Suarez and Uribe), but otherwise, these guys are freely available.
Again, these are middle relievers, so there isn't a ton of analysis to be done with them. They have little to no value in a saves league most of the time but are talented arms.
Here are some quick thoughts on a few of the players:
Dylan Lee: He's insanely good, with an actual (not projected) 29 percent K-BB%, 1.04 ERA, and 0.63 WHIP.
Alex Vesia, Will Vest and Garrett Cleavinger: These three lefties are used late in games, and each has at least a couple of Saves without being the team's closer.
Adrian Morejon: After having 13 wins last season, Morejon is already at six this year.
Julian Garcia: He technically meets the requirements, but it has only been one game. Pass.
