Saturday's main slate at FanDuel is a smaller six-game contest, with games going off between 7:10 p.m. and 9:38 p.m. EDT. That's just 12 pitcher to consider and target against, and a quarter of them are priced in five-figures, setting this up to a challenging roster build.
That's further amplified by the Dodgers being in Coors Field here; that game has an obviously slate-high run total of 11.5 with the Los Angeles expected to provide eight-plus of those while being massive (-280) favorites. Braves-Phillies and Rangers-Mariners have slate-low 7.0 run totals. Weather should not be a factor here; three games are played in domed stadiums, the other three have no wind or precipitation concerns, and we're considerably warmer in Denver after yesterday's early snow!
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Pitching
Chris Sale, ATL at PHI ($10,900): On a slate with some clear offensive targets, a contrarian GPP build can be to target an ace and build from cheaper offensive options. Sale smashes that profile. The Phillies offense has been woeful against lefties, hitting .179 with a .097 ISO, .264 wOBA and 60 wRC+. Their lineup has a combined 87 plate appearances against Sale, and are hitting .229 with a .650 OPS and whopping 37.9 percent K rate. Sale has allowed four homers in his four starts, but only Kyle Schwarber has taken him deep (twice).
Nathan Eovaldi, TEX at SEA ($8,700): After two rough outings, Eovaldi has righted the ship, allowing just two runs and nine hits in his last two starts, striking out 14 across 13.0 innings. One of those starts came against the Mariners, a lineup he's had great success against, allowing a .204 average, .593 OPS and a 27.4 percent K rate. Seattle's been okay against righties to date with a 111 wRC+, but a 24.9 percent strikeout rate, and we know the ballpark is pitcher friendly. The low 7.0 run total adds further appeal.
Lance McCullers, HOU vs. STL ($8,000): To be clear, I don't trust any pay-down option on this slate. I'm between McCullers and German Marquez ($7,300) as the preferred choice in that tier, but someone break up the Angels, whose offense is surging. The Cardinals have been better than expected as well but are hitting just .229 against righties. McCullers is wildly inconsistent. Last year, he was dominant on the road and horrible at home. This year, he's dominated in one home start and been a gas can on the road. There's seemingly no floor, but a ceiling potential. Houston is the slate's second-highest favorite at (-148) and they should give their starter some decent run support. It's a guess – no Cardinal has ever faced McCullers, but there's a path to 4x or better if he can get through five frames.
Top Targets
To open this season, I had this section tabbed simply as which Dodger(s) do you start your build around. And that's even more obvious Saturday. You need one, maybe two. The secondary pieces are priced up due to the ballpark, and there isn't a ton of BvP success to consider, so it may be a case of build out elsewhere and reserve some salary and plug in a few pieces to round out the build. Muncy ($3,400) homered twice Friday and saw his price dip $100. Freddie Freeman ($4,000) seems like a nice floor play, and Will Smith ($3,500) looks to have the best price/upside mix.
Just as it was Friday, the Astros are the second-most obvious offense to target after Los Angeles. Yordan Alvarez ($4,400) has homered in two of his last three. But he's not driving in a plethora of runs. There's no BvP success to consider here, but give me Jose Altuve ($3,400) or Christian Walker ($3,600) as cheaper pivots.
Bargain Bats
Loyal readers know I always will target against Yusei Kikuchi, and for good reason in his current form, as he's allowed at least four runs in each of his last three starts. A mini-stack of Manny Machado ($3,200) and Fernando Tatis ($3,000) seems incredibly obvious. Tatis is in a power drought, but they are a combined 7-for-21 off Kikuchi with two homers each. The game has a 9.5 run expectancy, so coming around with a piece or two of the Angels is absolutely in play. Oswald Peraza ($2,600) had two hits for the third time in four games Friday, and brings three-position flexibility.
Max Scherzer is a shell of his former self, having allowed 11 runs and four homers across 10.1 innings. Ketel Marte ($3,000) remains priced favorably. Lourdes Gurriel ($2,000) is expected to make his season debut Saturday, and Adrian Del Castillo ($2,300) should hit cleanup with a righty on the mound, giving us a plethora of options to consider. This is another game in which a mini-stack on both sides can be profitable. We've got a run total of 9.0 with both teams expected to flirt with five runs. Vladimir Guerrero ($3,100) remains priced down, while Jesus Sanchez ($2,900) is 4-for-8 with three doubles off Zac Gallen.
Stack to Consider
Braves vs. Cristopher Sanchez (Phillies): Matt Olson ($3,700), Ozzie Albies ($2,900), Austin Riley ($2,800)
While not always the right play, an easy way to differentiate your lineup in a tournament setting is to target against one or more of the top pitching options, and we've got some solid BvP trends and surging bats in the Atlanta offense to do just that. Sanchez has been terrific, allowing just one homer all season and no more than two earned runs in any of his four starts. But the Braves offense is surging, and not fully reliant on long balls despite homering four times Friday. Riley had two of those, giving him three in two games, and he's 4-for-9 with one off Sanchez. He's too cheap given the form. Albies is always in play against a lefty and should see a bump up in the lineup while also being 6-for-12 off Sanchez. Olson surely comes with low roster percentages in the LvL matchup, but that's largely a nonfactor for him. He's 6-for-18 with two big flies against Sanchez.
