Hollywood Brown

Brown may not have hit the financial jackpot in free agency but did strike gold in terms of opportunity to resurrect his reputation and fantasy value. The 2019 first-round pick is now partnered with Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes, following three straight seasons in Baltimore/Arizona playing large chunks of the year with backup quarterbacks. Brown seemed to break out in the first half of 2021, averaging 85.3 yards and 8.6 targets through eight games, before hitting a mid-season slump and then tailing off even further after QB Lamar Jackson suffered a season-ending ankle injury (Brown had fewer than 45 yards in each of his last five games). It was a similar story in 2022 after a trade to Arizona, where Brown averaged 80.8 yards and 10.7 targets over the first six weeks but then missed five games with an injury and returned to an offense that had lost QB Kyler Murray to an ACL tear. In 2023, Brown spent the first half of the year playing without Murray and the second half battling a heel injury, ultimately finishing with career lows in a slew of categories. If nothing else, the move to Kansas City should allow him to get back toward what he did his first two seasons in Baltimore (2019 and 2020) as a modest-volume target reliant on big plays and touchdowns. Anything beyond that probably depends on Rashee Rice's legal situation (and possible suspension) as well as first-round pick Xavier Worthy's development curve. If those two are both big factors, Brown may only be Option D in a KC offense that also has TE Travis Kelce.

Traded from Baltimore to Arizona last offseason, Brown started fast for the Cardinals with 485 yards and three touchdowns on a whopping 64 targets through six games, but it was all downhill from there as he missed five games with a foot injury and then returned to an offense with DeAndre Hopkins competing for targets and Kyler Murray later sidelined by an ACL tear. Brown's final six games yielded only 224 yards and nary a touchdown, while Hopkins overcame his early suspension to ultimately lead the team in receiving yards. There's a lot to sort out heading into 2023, as Hopkins is gone but Murray is in danger of missing the early portion of the season recovering from his knee injury. An offense with Murray and no Hopkins could lead to a steady flow of targets for Brown, though the fleet-footed wideout is arguably better suited for a role with fewer total targets at a deeper average depth.

Brown was the East Coast version of Mike Williams last year, appearing to take a step forward from "deep threat" to "legit No. 1 receiver" before crashing back to Earth in the second half of the season. The decline for Brown was drastic, exacerbated by QB Lamar Jackson missing five-plus games. Through the first nine weeks of the season, Brown scored six TDs and averaged 5.8 catches for 85.3 yards on 8.6 targets, with his 20 targets of 20-plus yards tying for the NFL lead (five catches, four TDs). The final nine weeks, he dropped to 5.6 catches for 40.8 yards on 9.6 targets, notably going 0-for-10 on deep looks. Brown never topped 55 yards without Jackson in the lineup, and opponents seemed to give him more cushion in the second half of the year, forcing the undersized wideout to catch quick passes and avoid tackles — never his strength. Brown does have the speed to get open, especially downfield, plus a natural feel for tracking the ball and getting in proper position, though he had some brutal drops last year (including three potential TDs in one game). The Cardinals saw enough to send Baltimore a first-round pick for Brown and a third-rounder, even without a new contract in place. While he might not be his new team's No. 1 receiver, Brown will at least fill that role for six weeks when DeAndre Hopkins opens the season suspended. It remains to be seen if a new offensive system will spark a rebound from Brown's late-2021 collapse.

Brown is fast. We don’t know how fast exactly because he had a broken foot at the 2019 NFL Combine, but he ran a 4.33 40 as a community college player before attending Oklahoma. The problem is he’s also small — 5-9 and listed at 180 pounds before 2020, though he played closer to 165 as a rookie. As such, it’s hard to envision Brown ever getting massive target volume, and last year, despite playing 16 games as the team’s top wideout, he saw only 100 targets. He did have four catches of 40-plus yards and scored eight touchdowns, but Mark Andrews is the primary red-zone target, and with the bigger (6-1, 211) Sammy Watkins also in the fold, we wouldn’t count on a repeat. Moreover, the Ravens used a first-round pick on wideout Rashod Bateman, spreading the distribution of targets in a low-volume passing offense even thinner. Quarterback Lamar Jackson also regressed from his MVP form last year, with star left guard Marshall Yanda retiring and left tackle Ronnie Stanley getting hurt. Stanley should be healthy for the start of the year, but whether defenses figured Jackson out is unclear. Consider Brown more of a DeSean Jackson type — capable of a huge play or game at any time, but not rugged enough for heavy use.

The first receiver taken in the loaded 2019 draft, Brown showed signs of his potential, but health and limited opportunities due to game flow kept him from truly breaking out. His efficiency numbers were merely average - 12.7 YPC, 8.2 YPT - but he had four catches of 40-plus yards on only 71 targets, showcasing his elite deep speed. We don't have a 40 time for Brown, who had a broken foot during the 2019 NFL Combine, but take it from college teammate Baker Mayfield who said Brown had a gear fellow Oklahoma wideout Dede Westbrook (4.39 40) lacked. At 5-9, 170, Brown is small and slight, in the DeSean Jackson mold, but the Ravens somehow targeted him a lot from in close - 13 red-zone targets and six inside the 10 on modest overall volume. Brown had offseason surgery to remove a screw from his foot, but it was far less serious than what he dealt with coming into 2019, i.e., unlike last year he should be full go heading into camp. Tight end Mark Andrews is likely to remain Lamar Jackson's favorite target, but Jackson's arm strength is not in doubt, and Brown should be one of the league's most dangerous deep threats even if his target ceiling is modest.

The first receiver selected in this year's draft, Brown should have a starting job out of the gate for Baltimore, given the lack of competition on the depth chart. At 5-10, 166, but with blistering speed - a foot injury prevented him from running at the combine, but his college quarterback Baker Mayfield said Brown had a gear that Dede Westbrook (4.39 40) lacked - Brown will be the team's home-run threat and should benefit from Lamar Jackson's ability to extend plays. Whether Jackson can scramble to throw rather than simply run remains to be seen, but he had no problem throwing the deep ball in college. Moreover, new offensive coordinator Greg Roman should be more aggressive than his predecessor, Marty Mornhinweg. Brown is also a polished route runner, but his slight frame might limit his target upside - the per-play numbers should be strong, but volume will be the key to Brown's fantasy prospects. Still, with only Willie Snead and a couple tight ends around to handle the underneath stuff, Brown's healthy floor is among the highest in his class.