Tyler Glasnow

It's damning with faint praise, but Glasnow threw a career-high 120 innings as a 29-year-old in his final year with the Rays. Coming into 2023, Glasnow had never avoided the injured list around stretches of brilliance where he looks downright unhittable. He then has bouts of command issues where he struggles with fastball location and lineups jump on him. The extra pain point in 2023 was created with the new rules as his 6-foot-8 frame leverages long extension and a slow delivery to the plate which leaves him susceptible to steals - he permitted 19 steals in 2023. He also hit the IL at the start of the season with an oblique issue and had back spasms again later in the summer. The Dodgers traded for him and then extended him this offseason, so he should have excellent run support for the foreseeable future and there are no questions about where he will be pitching. He clearly has the stuff of an ace and will look to increase his career high in innings again, but he averaged less than 65 MLB innings per season prior to last year, so make sure you're not reliant on him staying healthy all season.

Glasnow pulled two surprises on fantasy managers in 2022: he made it back earlier than expected and he signed a contract extension to stay in Tampa Bay a bit longer. Last winter, it was expected he would likely miss all of 2022 and there was even talk of the club trading the pitcher as he headed into what would be a costly arbitration hearing. Instead, he was able to make it back for two late appearances in September and signed a two-year deal for $30M during the recovery process to potentially stay with the club through 2024. The two outings looked like the guy we saw before the elbow gave out in 2021, but the sample size was too small to see how the typical command struggles that beset TJ recoveries will impact Glasnow in 2023. He absolutely has ace stuff, but it is understandable if you decide to pursue safer options and lower ceilings with your first or even second pitcher. It is tough to overlook the fact he has never thrown more than 140 combined innings in any professional season.

Glasnow was pitching at a Cy Young level in 2021 before Major League Baseball ceased looking the other way on how pitchers were enhancing their grips. Two starts into the new era, Glasnow left the mound for good and eventually needed Tommy John surgery to fix his elbow. The right-hander was outspoken in the media about how he felt going from some grip to none without any real lead time contributed to his injury. He will not throw a pitch in 2022 for Tampa Bay, so his value is in keeper league formats only. The mantra should be that pitchers take two full years to pick up where they left off, so even keeper league managers should prepare for a bumpy first half of the 2023 season.

At 6-foot-8, Glasnow has struggled at times with his mechanics and command. He's been inconsistent during his time in the majors between Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay (career 4.43 ERA, 1.34 WHIP) and has also battled a few injuries, most notably shoulder trouble in 2016 and forearm tightness in 2019. What's not in question is his physical ability. When things are going right, Glasnow is among the most dominant pitchers in the game with a 97-mph fastball and a curveball that ranks in the 92nd percentile in terms of spin rate. His stuff is so naturally filthy that he can get hitters out even when he isn't hitting his spots. The right-hander's 2020 ended on a sour note as he gave up a whopping nine homers in 28.2 postseason innings, and those struggles will be fresh in the minds of drafters this spring. It's understandable to be hesitant given his history, but a bet on the talent here could pay big dividends.

The sky is the limit for Glasnow, though there are a couple of obstacles. At 6-foot-10, he must focus to repeat his mechanics. If 2019 is an indication, Glasnow is on his way after registering a 6.1 BB%, the lowest of his career at any level, albeit in just 60.2 innings. This segues to durability. After a May 10 start, Glasnow was sporting a tidy 1.86 ERA and 0.91 WHIP with 55 punchouts and only nine walks in 48.1 innings. He left that game early with forearm tightness and didn't return until Sept. 8. The club was cautious the rest of the way, with Glasnow totaling just 12.1 frames in four starts plus two more for seven frames in the ALDS. Glasnow should be fine heading into 2020, but even if he remains healthy, his workload is likely to be monitored. Glasnow's velocity and spin rate are elite, and he's open-minded about analytics. This adds up to an ace; just don't pay for innings he likely won't deliver.

Last year was, in effect, two separate seasons for the hard-throwing righty. Pittsburgh is a big believer in establishing the fastball low in the zone to generate groundballs. That approach requires good command of the strike zone, which Glasnow simply does not have yet. This led to a 56% groundball rate and a 14% walk rate with the Pirates. Tampa Bay wants pitchers to use the fastball up in the zone to change eye levels for the secondary stuff. Batters have a tougher time laying off high heat, especially heat with Glasnow's ride to it. That explains how he was able to cut his walk rate nearly in half, but he also saw his home-run rate double after the move, partly because of the move to the AL East. Further complicating matters is the fact 96.4% of his pitches for the Rays were either fastballs or curveballs. Few pitchers can consistently go deep relying on just two pitches, no matter how good those pitches are. Indeed, he averaged just five innings per start.

During his ascent through Pittsburgh's farm system, Glasnow made a name for himself as a premier prospect. With a fastball that hovers around the 95 mph, a changeup and a curveball, Glasnow consistently fooled batters and turned in K/9s above 9.0 at each level. That dominance has yet to translate to the majors, as he posted a 7.45 ERA and 1.91 WHIP over his first 12 starts last season. His control was seemingly gone, as threw for a 50:29 K:BB over that span, and those struggles resulted in a demotion to Triple-A Indianapolis in mid-June. Glasnow found his groove with Indy, posting a 1.93 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 140:32 K:BB over 15 starts. However, he wasn't any better after returning to the big leagues in September (9.39 ERA, 2.74 WHIP). Until he shows something at the highest level, Glasnow will remain merely a lottery ticket -- an arm with upside but without the track record to warrant a substantial investment in single-season drafts.

Glasnow's success in the minors didn't translate to Pittsburgh during his initial run in the big leagues. He gave up 11 earned runs in 23.1 innings split between four starts and three relief outings. His biggest weapon -- fastball velocity -- varied greatly. After coming to the Bucs with a mid-to-upper 90s heater, Glasnow averaged 93.5 mph and occasionally dipped into the high 80s. He spent time on the DL with both shoulder and triceps discomfort, factors which likely contributed to inconsistent velocity. His walk rate (5.0 BB/9) remained high and the Pirates tried to teach him a slide step on the fly to help contain the running game. A reluctance to throw a recently-adopted changeup basically made him to a two-pitch pitcher. If he can stay healthy and remain confident through the inevitable struggles young pitchers face, then the 6-foot-8 righty could move into the top half of Pittsburgh's rotation in 2017.

Glasnow added to his reputation as a strikeout phenom in 2015, even though his 11.2 K/9 rate was actually the lowest in three minor league campaigns. He missed six weeks with an ankle injury but pitched well enough to earn a promotion to Triple-A Indianapolis, where he registered a 2.20 ERA in 41 innings. A 4.8 BB/9 mark forced general manager Neal Huntington to tap the brakes on talks of a big league debut, but a good start to 2016 will likely punch his ticket to PNC Park after the Super 2 arbitration date passes in early June, if not sooner.

Along with the injured Jameson Taillon, Glasnow ranks atop Pittsburgh's impressive list of pitching prospects. The 6-foot-7 righty built upon an impressive 2013 at Low-A with a standout season for High-A Bradenton last year. Working primarily worked off a high-90s fastball and sharp-breaking curve, Glasnow recorded 157 strikeouts in just 124.1 innings. He gave up only 74 hits but walked 57. Fortunately, the control improved year over year, from 4.9 BB/9 to 4.1 BB/9. Although the 21-year-old struggled in his lone playoff appearance and wasn't particularly dominant in the Arizona Fall League, he'll get a bump up to Double-A in 2015. While it's unlikely the organization promotes him to the big leagues before 2016, he could see time with Triple-A Indy this summer. His ceiling remains as high as anyone in Pittsburgh's farm system.

Glasnow exploded onto the scene in 2013, striking out 164 batters in 111.1 innings for Low-A West Virginia. The 20-year-old righty throws a 95 mph plus fastball and sharp curveball from a 6-8, 215 frame. His numbers include a 2.18 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. A 4.9 BB/9 could hold Glasnow back against more advanced hitters, but he's athletic enough for his size and has time on his side to project improvement. He'll make the jump to High-A in 2014, and if he finds a way to harness his control, he could advance quickly through a typically-conservative Pittsburgh farm system.