Trevor Story

Story began the season on the IL after undergoing internal bracing surgery on his right elbow, a procedure which has a shorter recovery time than Tommy John surgery but is just as effective in some instances. Story didn't make his 2023 debut until the first week in August where he took over at shortstop after playing second base the previous season. He struggled mightily at the plate, fanning at a 32.7 percent clip, his highest since 2017. Story also posted the lowest walk rate of his career, along with his lowest average exit velocity ever, and the lowest hard-hit rate since 2017. Story stole 10 bases in 13 tries over 43 games, plus he played excellent defense. He's slated to be the Red Sox opening day shortstop, but he's a fantasy enigma. Given, it's been two injury-riddled seasons, but Story's decline from his Rockies days is more than just park factors. He'll be an asset in steals, but beyond that it's a crapshoot. He clearly won't return to his salad days with Colorado, but there is a solid chance Story posts his best season since signing with Boston.

There were concerns with Story with the "Big Contract in New Place" theory as well as him leaving Coors Field in play along with the usual dose of health reservations with the talented hitter. It turns out each of them were well-founded as they all came into play in 2022. Story performed as a league-average player in the 94 games he did play with good counting stats, but missing nearly 60 games with a hand injury and a foot injury limited his overall production. A surprising jump in his strikeout rate coming over to the American League helped push his batting average to a career-worst .238 while his .251 average in Fenway could not save him. 2018 remains the only season in which Story has successfully avoided some type of injury, and his 2023 is off to an ominous start after he underwent an internal bracing procedure on the UCL in his right elbow during January. He's expected to be sidelined for 4-to-6 months, so he's unlikely to be back on the field until at least June.

By the numbers, Story's season was the second worst of his career, with a 100 wRC+. However, there were two instances of bad luck, masking the fact his skills were in sync with past seasons. Story's groundball BABIP was 100 points lower than normal, costing him almost 15 hits. Further, his flyball average exit velocity was a career high, but his HR/FB was his second lowest. The associated expected stats suggest Story's season should have been like his recent production. Taking out the park factors from Story's recent baseline with Colorado yields a .263/.329/.480 neutral slash, a drop of around .080 in OPS from his actual production. Story's running game will play anywhere as he's swiped at least 20 bags in three of the past four seasons, with only 15 in 2020's two-month season falling short. He may not be a first rounder/$30 player, but Story is still a solid fantasy asset that could receive a bump for his counting stats after signing with Boston, where he'll play second base while Xander Bogaerts remains at shortstop.

Story is taking after Nolan Arenado in that he's becoming a model of consistency and should remain a rotisserie stud for as long as he remains in Colorado. He managed both double-digit home runs and stolen bases for the third consecutive campaign despite having only 59 games to do so. If there is a negative to point to, it's that Story displayed some downturn in his plate discipline and quality of contact in 2020. Though his contact rate improved from 2019, a higher rate of that contact came on the pitches outside the zone as Story's O-Contact% jumped to a career-high 67.4% rate. The result was a dip in exit velocity and hard-hit rate, though he maintained a barrel rate within his career norms. Nevertheless, it's easy to chalk those slight differences to variance in a far-from-normal campaign. Entering his age-28 season, Story is one of the most valuable five-category contributors in the league.

On the surface, Story's 2019 campaign was much like the previous year and his rookie campaign, making 2017 the outlier. That said, considering the league-wide spike in power and overall offense, perhaps last season was a small step back. This is corroborated by a small dip in xwOBA (an estimation using Statcast metrics). Story's batted-ball profile was a near match to 2018, save for fewer barrels, likely accounting for the drop in xwOBA. Specifically, his GB/LD/FB ratios and hard-hit rate were close to 2018 levels. Not only did Story carry over his improved contact rate, he continued to run, swiping 23 bags, reinforcing a strong floor. Add in Coors Field and decent durability (656 plate appearances each of the past two seasons), the 27-year old is one of the best at a stacked shortstop position. Story warrants first-round consideration and $30-plus in auctions as he contributes across the board.

While 2016 may have been Story's breakout, 2018 was the season everything came together. He hit for a career-high average while greatly reducing his strikeout rate and expanding his power at the plate. The volume of stolen bases was a huge surprise that nobody forecasted in draft season and a bonus. His home-run total went up despite a small drop in his flyball rate. More hard contact allowed his HR/FB to get up to 20% and helped fuel the homer surge. There are two causes for concern moving forward, though: Story had an elbow scare near the end of the season that nearly put him on the surgeon's table, so that bears watching. Secondly, he ended the season with a 64-point split between his actual slugging percentage of .567 and his expected slugging percentage (.503). He is more likely to slide back to 30 homers than to challenge for 40 in 2019.

Story was in the conversation for NL Rookie of the Year honors in 2016 before a thumb ligament injury ended his season, but he was unable to repeat that success in 2017. He stumbled out of the gates, batting .180/.289/.396 over his first 34 games. Story hit .255 with 18 homers and 67 RBI in 112 games after his return from a shoulder injury in May, but he continued to swing and miss at a high rate, fanning in one-third of his plate appearances over the remainder of the year. The strikeouts are not as much of a problem in today's game, and that's especially true when a player hits the ball as hard as Story does -- his 40.3 percent hard-hit rate ranked 18th among qualified hitters. Story will likely continue to be a batting-average liability with his current approach, even while playing half his games at Coors Field, but his prolific power and splash of speed at the shortstop position give him appeal at what will be a significantly discounted price from a year ago.

Story was given an opportunity in the starting role from Day 1 last season, replacing the suspended Jose Reyes. The rookie took off from the get-go, seemingly tearing down every rookie record in the book. Through the first month of the season, he already had 10 home runs, 20 RBI, and a massive 1.019 OPS. Understandably, he wasn't able to sustain this ridiculously torrid pace, but he managed to put up a .908 OPS, 27 home runs and 72 RBI prior to a thumb injury that cut his season short by two months. Story's 130 strikeouts are a concern, as that number could grow as pitchers figure out his tendencies, and his home/road splits were very different as one would expect for a Coors Field batter (1.086 home OPS vs. .747 road OPS). That being said, Story cemented himself as the shortstop of the future for the Rockies, and he looks to be an excellent source of power at the shortstop position playing half of his games in the thin Colorado air.

Story was a consensus top-100 prospect prior to the 2013 season, but his stock crashed to the point that he didn’t crack any industry top-100 lists in 2014 or 2015. That streak will come to a screeching halt this offseason, as Story made a big statement, abusing Double-A and Triple-A pitchers alike. He slashed .279/.350/.514 with 20 home runs and 22 steals (on 25 attempts) in 130 games, splitting time evenly between the two levels. Story remains age appropriate for his level, as he should debut in the majors early on in his age-23 campaign. Jose Reyes appears to stand in Story’s way, but Reyes’ performance was below replacement level in 47 games with Colorado last season, and he has serious off-field issues that could also cut into his availability. Look for Story to be starting every day at shortstop for the Rockies sooner rather than later in 2016, making him a worthy late-round flier in mixed leagues.

Forced to repeat High-A Modesto after striking out in 33 percent of his plate appearances in 2013, Story shined in his second go-around, slashing .332/.436/.582 while showing noticeable growth in his plate discipline. The improvements earned Story a midseason promotion to Double-A Tulsa. Just as was the case in the California League, he scuffled in his initial exposure to the new level. His strikeout rate hiked up to 34.6% and his on-base percentage sank to .302 over 237 plate appearances, dimming the impact of the rare power/speed package he offers at shortstop. Story’s ongoing contact issues leave scouts divided on whether or not he’ll become a viable big league regular, but it could simply be a matter of the 22-year-old needing more time to adjust to advanced pitching. The Rockies are of no mind to rush Story to the majors while Troy Tulowitzki is around, so he’ll have ample opportunity to refine his swing at the Double-A level and assert his standing as the team’s top middle infield prospect.

Story’s age-19 season was a promising one, as he exhibited a nice combination of power (18 homers), speed (15 steals) and on-base skills (.361 OBP). Story is not without a few flaws, however. It should be noted that his numbers came in the friendly hitting confines of the South Atlantic League, and his high strikeout totals could become more problematic as he advances in the minors. Story will likely move on to another hitters’ paradise in the California League this season, so it is possible we will not know the full extent of his batting skills until he reaches the upper levels of the minors.