Sean Manaea

The Padres acquired Manaea from the A's after the end of the lockout in March 2022, but he delivered a disappointing season with a career-worst 4.96 ERA and was briefly dropped from the rotation in September. He gave up 29 home runs with a 14.9 percent HR/FB and also saw his groundball rate dip below 40 percent for the first time in his big-league career. Manaea got a two-year, $25 million deal with the Giants, which is a good landing spot and a sizable enough contract for us to feel confident in his role. Oracle Park is one of the five best parks at suppressing home runs, so that could make Manaea a strong home-streaming option. His changeup and slider each showed promising characteristics, so if he can dial back his fastball usage (61% last season), he could have a nice rebound in 2023.

One can take away many positives and negatives when examining Manaea's 2021 campaign. While logging a career-high 179.1 innings, the southpaw conceded a career-worst 1.25 HR/9 despite seeing his K% shoot up to 25.7%. Even though he ditched his four-seamer entirely in favor of a sinker, Manaea's average fastball velocity rose nearly two mph to 92.2 while his groundball rate dropped to 42.0%. His 3.65 FIP shined his campaign in a better light than his 3.91 ERA, in large part because of the opposition hitting .318 on balls in play against him. The lefty's offspeed deliveries proved to be effective, with hitters slashing just .213 against his slider and .239 against his changeup. Assuming he's able to stay healthy, Manaea shouldn't have a problem eclipsing 150 innings during his age-30 season, but it's hard to envision him establishing more than the middle-of-the-rotation presence that he's held for the vast majority of his career.

Through four starts last season, Manaea was sitting on a 9.00 ERA and 1.87 WHIP. However, a .462 BABIP, 46.2 LOB% and 4.19 xFIP in those 15 frames begged for patience. Sure enough, the lefty spun a 2.95 ERA and 0.95 WHIP the rest of the way, with a 3.62 xFIP over 39 innings during that stretch. Manaea's career strikeout rate is a pedestrian 19.7%, capping his ceiling and exposing him to the whims of variance as we saw last season. A 6.1 BB% and 44.6% groundball mark help keep his ratios in check. Manaea's bread and butter is a sinker, but it only generates a 7% swinging-strike rate while his lesser-used changeup, curveball and slider all generate double-digit rates. A tweak in Manaea's repertoire could manifest in more punchouts without hurting other areas. After his disappointing 2020, most are off Manaea, creating a potential buying opportunity in fantasy drafts.

Manaea's 2018 was truncated by shoulder surgery, which was initially expected to keep him out for all of 2019. However, rehab proceeded well and the lefty returned when rosters expanded. When he finally made it to the hill, the Athletics didn't baby him as Manaea started five games, throwing 29.2 innings. He responded with a 1.21 ERA and 0.78 WHIP, earning the start in the AL Wild Card Game. Ignore the actual results; the important thing is Manaea was able to average nearly six innings a start, boding well for his fantasy potential in 2020. The southpaw's velocity and spin were down a tick, but that's to be expected after such a long layoff. Not to mention, he relies more on command and control and doesn't feature a curve while only throwing sliders about 20% of the time. Temper expectations to around 150 innings, but there's little reason to think Manaea can't pick up where he left off in 2018.

Manaea's 2019 season is very much in doubt after he had major shoulder surgery in late September. He has seen his average fastball velocity drop off nearly four miles per hour over the past three seasons and has had noticeable velocity dips in each of the past two second halves. He held batters to a .212/.264/.376 line before the All-Star break this past season, even no-hitting the eventual World Series champs, but 18 home runs allowed in 123 innings pushed his ERA up to 3.42 when it was all said and done. He allowed fewer homers (4) in the 37 innings he pitched after the break, but his opponents' slash line jumped to .286/.325/.414. If your league allows you to draft injured players and stash, Manaea is in the mix as he has shown signs of being worth it to do that. Just understand that you may not get a single pitch from him this year and we will not know more about his shoulder until late February.

Manaea came into 2017 wanting to tighten up his slider so it was not as loopy and overexposed to righties. He did use the pitch more in 2017, and early on it helped. Manaea hit the All-Star break with a 3.76 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 24.0 percent strikeout rate. He limped to the finish line last season, posting a 5.23 ERA, 1.67 WHIP and 15.4 percent strikeout rate. That drop in strikeouts is alarming from season-to-season let alone within a single season. He did not lose too much velocity off his fastball (92.1 to 91.7), but he was quite hittable over the summer including an outing against Baltimore where he never got a second out while allowing six earned runs. When Manaea is dealing, it is fun to watch, but the lack of consistency right now dampens the appeal of his upside.

Success is all about making adjustments. Manaea built on his flawed first half (5.24 ERA in 12 starts) to become a stud during the second half of the season (2.67 ERA in 13 games, 12 starts). He improved across the board, and Manaea saved his best work for the final month of the season: four starts, 24 innings, a 1.13 ERA and 20:5 K:BB. The A's were careful with his workload: Manaea threw more than 100 pitches in just five of his 24 starts, and he was capped at 106 pitches in a game. His best offering in the first half was his changeup, which he threw just 23.1 percent of the time, but he upped the usage to 31.5 percent in the second half and thrived. The slider also showed inseason improvement, and his ability to mix the secondary offerings to batters on both sides of the plate will be a key aspect of his development. This combination of improvement and upside makes him an intriguing fantasy sleeper.

Manaea was the top chip acquired by the A's in the trade deadline deal that sent Ben Zobrist to Kansas City. The lefty will be 24 in February and was the 34th overall pick in the 2013 draft. He impressed right away after the trade, putting up a 1.90 with a 10.76 K/9 over seven starts at Double-A Midland. After dominating in the 2012 Cape Cod League, there was some talk before the 2013 draft that Manaea had a chance to go No. 1 overall, but injuries and poor performance caused him to slide to 34th. Manaea sits in the low 90's with his fastball and also features a plus slider that all comes with a deceptive delivery. The A's are very excited about Manaea and Billy Beane commented that Manaea is the type of guy he did not think would be obtainable at the deadline. Various minor injuries have slowed his momentum so far, but if he can stay healthy and pick up where he left off at the end of 2015, Manaea has a chance to join the A's before the 2016 season is complete.

Manaea put together a solid 25 starts in his first year at High-A Wilmington, posting a 3.11 ERA (supported by a 2.79 FIP) and a K/9 of 10.8. Some questions about his health caused his stock to slip a bit in the 2013 first-year player draft, but he was able to return from hip surgery and toss 121.2 innings during his age-22 season. The 6-foot-5 southpaw mixes a mid-90s fastball with an above-average slider, and also has a changeup in his arsenal. That combination of weapons prevented left-handed hitters in the Carolina League from homering off him in 2014, as Manaea was able to limit them to a .211 batting average. The sky is the limit for Manaea, who certainly has potential to rise quickly though the minor league ranks in the coming season. He'll look to build off the momentum generated from a strong second half, a period in which he limited opposing batters to a .180 average and posted a 1.01 WHIP over 73.1 innings.

Manaea was the Royals's second pick (34th overall) in the 2013 draft out of Indiana State University. Many experts originally suggested Manaea could have been a No. 1 overall pick, but the immediate need for hip surgery, a problem that developed from overcompensating for an ankle injury during his delivery, saw him drop down many teams' draft boards. The 6-foot-5, 235 pound lefty has a solid three-pitch arsenal with a fastball clocked as high as 96 mph, and after successful surgery and rehab, is expected to be ready for spring training. He is expected to open the year either in Low-A Lexington or High-A Wilmington. Depending on his progress, he could be on the fast-track towards the major leagues, but not likely until 2015 or 2016. Dynasty league owners will want to keep him on their radar as he does project to be a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter down the road.