Miguel Vargas

Vargas was a trendy pick in 2023 fantasy drafts as news emerged that he would be the Dodgers' Opening Day second baseman, but by mid-July he was back in the minors, where he remained for the remainder of the campaign. The heralded prospect struggled to a .195/.305/.367 slash line over 81 games, and the demotion came after he batted a paltry .079 (5-for-63) over his final 23 contests. Despite the disappointing stat line, there are reasons to believe that Vargas can succeed at the MLB level. He demonstrated refined plate discipline while up with the big club, posting a hearty 12.5 percent walk rate and a respectable 20.1 percent strikeout rate along with a borderline-elite 20.8 percent chase rate, per Statcast. Vargas didn't hit the ball hard consistently, but it's promising that of his 50 big-league hits last year, over half went for extra bases. Importantly, Vargas didn't sulk after being sent down, instead extending his run of minor-league success with an .886 OPS and 10 homers over 60 Triple-A contests. Los Angeles filled the void at second base following Vargas' demotion primarily by transitioning Mookie Betts from right field, and the experiment went smoothly enough that Betts will likely see considerable time at the keystone again in 2024. While that could limit Vargas' opportunities at the position, it may also mean that he gets reps in the corner outfield, where he logged some time down the stretch in the minors last season. It's unlikely that he'll be handed the keys to a starting spot out the gate as he was last year, but the Dodgers clearly still see Vargas as a part of their future, and he could earn a substantial role with a strong spring.

Vargas is simply one of the best pure hitters who is still technically a prospect. He hit .304/.404/.511 with a 14.6 K%, 31.7 Hard% and 17 home runs in 113 games as a 22-year-old at Triple-A and predictably played sparingly during a cup of coffee in the majors. His team context - the Dodgers seemingly always have a few quality options for his positions (first base, third base, left field) - is by far the biggest knock on Vargas in the short term. Vargas is not thought of as a burner, but he stole 17 bases on 22 attempts and has a 94th percentile sprint speed, so he could at least be a 4.5-category contributor with regular playing time. He is talented enough to take the left field job and run with it early this season, but it's possible that the Dodgers' crowded depth chart leads to Vargas being a post-hype sleeper in 2024.

Always seen as a bat-first player with a strong hit tool, Vargas solidified himself as a top-50 prospect for dynasty leagues by hitting for significantly more power than he had to date against full-season pitching. He hit .319/.380/.526 with 23 home runs, a 16.4 K% and an 8.3 BB% in 120 games at High-A and Double-A. He was at least 40% better than the average hitter at each level and clearly has one of the better hit tools in the minors. Vargas will chase out of the zone a decent amount, but his ability to make contact and do damage on pitches in the zone allowed him to have a dominant season at an appropriate age (21) for his levels. Vargas got work at third base, second base and first base last season and could qualify at some combination of those positions in the majors. The Dodgers have a never-ending stream of infielders marching to the majors, but Vargas might be the best hitter of those who have yet to reach The Show. He will likely spend most of the year at Triple-A and could earn the call sometime this summer.

Vargas is a great hitter with an uncertain defensive home in an organization with seemingly unlimited depth on the position player side. This makes him a tricky player to evaluate for dynasty leagues. His 19.4 Hard% is a very poor mark for a player with his defensive profile, but considering over 35% of his hits went to the opposite field and he played half the year as a 19-year-old at High-A, we can excuse the lack of blistering contact for now. Vargas is a hitter first, and a power hitter second, but the power will have to come eventually for him to get playing time. As a 6-foot-3, 205-pound third baseman who throws and hits right-handed, it will be imperative that he maintains the lateral agility necessary to stick at the hot corner, as the Dodgers probably won't find room for a player of his ilk at first base. He kept his weight in check last season, which is an encouraging sign.

After a two-year absence from competitive baseball, Vargas burst onto the dynasty-league radar by leading the Pioneer League with a .394 AVG before earning a promotion to the Midwest League. Vargas, who turned 19 in November, defected from Cuba when he was 16 and signed with the Dodgers for $300,000 in September of 2017. He was too advanced for rookie-level pitchers, but met some resistance at Low-A. Vargas used the whole field at all three stops, but after his promotion to Low-A, his LD% plummeted from 25.3% to 17.9% and his GB% spiked from 38.0% to 51.8%, which largely explains his drop in production. Already 6-foot-3, 200 pounds, it is quite possible Vargas (R/R) will be a below-average defensive third baseman by the time he is big-league ready, but the Dodgers won't move him to first base until they absolutely have to. His offensive production has a chance to be good enough for mediocre defense to be tolerated at third base.