Jesus Luzardo

At age 25 last season, Luzardo established himself as a legitimate frontline starter for Miami, and he may not be done ascending. He went into the All-Star break riding high, having allowed just two runs in 25.2 innings with a 35:5 K:BB in his final four starts of the first half. There was talk about what the Marlins might do to manage Luzardo's workload after injuries previously limited him to just over 100 innings in a big-league season. In the end the team didn't do anything to limit Luzardo and he soared past 180 innings when including his four-inning outing in Game 1 of the NL Wild Card Series. It's the type of jump in innings that we're not used to seeing, and the results suffered down the stretch as the innings added up, though it's debatable whether the workload increase itself is a reason to be cautious with Luzardo entering 2024. He could be in the running to start Opening Day with Sandy Alcantara out after undergoing Tommy John surgery.

Heading into 2022, Luzardo was not only an injury risk, but how well he'd pitch when healthy was also unclear. A year later, he's still a health risk after making only 18 starts due to a midseason forearm strain, but Luzardo assuaged performance fears by dominating, especially late. On May 10, Luzardo was sporting a 4.03 ERA and 1.17 WHIP with 41 strikeouts but 16 walks in 29 innings. He then went on the IL to return on August 1. The lefty recorded a 3.03 ERA and .98 WHIP the rest of the way, fanning 79 with only 19 walks in his final 71.1 frames. Luzardo featured a 96-mph fastball, but his changeup was most effective, generating a 25.9% swinging strike rate. Luzardo needs to maintain his improved control, and of course avoid injury, but if he does, the southpaw has a chance to fulfill the vast promise teased as he was coming up in the Athletics system.

Luzardo endured a brutal 2021 season between Oakland and Miami, but hope springs eternal with young arms this time of year. We're seeing that in camp with the 24-year-old lefty. Luzardo was up a couple ticks from last season in his March 22 Grapefruit League appearance, routinely touching 98-99 mph with his fastball, generating quite a bit of buzz on social media. He was once a big-time prospect and it's easy to dream on the upside if he gets on track with the Marlins, but Luzardo has dealt with a lot of health issues in his young career. He had Tommy John surgery before he was drafted, his 2019 was mostly wiped out by shoulder and lat trouble and he hurt his pinkie playing video games last year. Be realistic with workload expectations.

Luzardo tested positive for COVID-19 in July and worked out of the bullpen for the A's initially as he built up. He ended up making his first career start Aug. 4 and was up-and-down from there, turning in some clunkers but also flashing brilliance like he did in scoreless starts against Arizona and San Francisco. The lefty throws 95-96 mph with his four-seamer and sinker, and both his changeup and curveball had whiff rates of 45% per Statcast. His season ended in disappointing fashion with Luzardo serving up multiple homers in both postseason appearances (four in 7.2 innings). Luzardo has undergone Tommy John surgery and missed most of 2019 with a rotator cuff strain and subsequent Grade 2 lat strain, so there is considerable injury risk here. The play may be to wait to invest until 2022 since Luzardo still carries a lot of prospect shine and needs a season to build up before he can be a workhorse.

Luzardo seemed on track to make the Opening Day rotation before a rotator cuff strain and a subsequent Grade 2 lat strain wiped out much of his season. Including the playoffs, Luzardo logged 63.2 innings, so the top concern with him for 2020 is workload. It is unclear how the A's will manage his role throughout the season, but we shouldn't expect Luzardo to log much more than 100 innings in the big-league rotation. He threw his 83-mph curveball, 96-mph sinker, 87-mph changeup and 97-mph fourseam fastball all between 20 and 31 percent of the time, filling up the zone and effectively keeping hitters off balance. All four pitches have at least plus potential, especially when his command is on. He has the repertoire to improve upon his 42.3 GB% over a larger sample. Durability concerns will linger until the 6-foot southpaw proves he can handle a starter's workload, but Luzardo clearly has ace-level stuff.

The A’s jumped Luzardo over Low-A, assigned him to the Cal League and promoted him to Double-A after just three starts at High-A. It was around that point when he cemented his status as the best left-handed pitching prospect in the game. The foundation for his filthy three-pitch mix is a low-to-mid-90s fastball that he locates to both sides of the plate. Once ahead in the count, he sits hitters down with his plus changeup or above-average curveball. At 6-foot-1, 205 pounds, Luzardo doesn’t cut the figure of a typical ace, but has the combination of stuff, command and pitchability that is typically seen in frontline starters. He logged 109.1 innings in his first full season since undergoing Tommy John surgery, and should eclipse 150 innings if he stays relatively healthy. The A’s surprisingly called up Sean Manaea in late April of 2016 with just three starts at Triple-A under his belt, so we could see Luzardo in the big-league rotation pretty early this season.

It's not often that teams part with lefties with advanced pitchability who project to have at least two plus pitches, but that's exactly what the Nationals did in a mid-July trade that netted them Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson while sending Luzardo, Sheldon Neuse and Blake Treinen to Oakland. Luzardo's fastball sits in the mid-90s and he boasts above-average command and a changeup that projects as a second plus offering. He fell to the 94th pick in the 2016 draft after undergoing Tommy John surgery less than two months before the draft. However, prior to the injury, he was seen as a first-round talent. Even if his curveball never becomes better than an average pitch, the package equates to a No. 3 starter. His 2017 production was outstanding, but he was working on strict pitch counts and his overall repertoire was way too advanced for most short-season hitters. Building up his workload and getting more consistent with his secondaries will be his directives for 2018. He could move extremely quickly once the training wheels come off in 2019.