Dustin May

With his 2021 Tommy John surgery in the rearview mirror and a handful of starts near the end of 2022 in his back pocket to instill confidence, May looked primed for a breakout heading into last season. The fireballing right-hander began the campaign with a bang, tossing seven shutout innings in his first start, and through three games he posted a 1.47 ERA while holding opponents to a .115 batting average. May would pitch in only six more contests, however, as he left a start in mid-May with elbow pain and ultimately underwent both flexor tendon and UCL reconstruction revision surgery in his pitching arm. A typical timeline for recovery would allow May to get back the on mound around the 2024 All-Star break, though it wouldn't be surprising if Los Angeles is ultra-conservative with his return considering the hurler's recent injury history. General manager Brandon Gomes suggested as much in November, saying that the team won't push May's return and stopping short of committing to the 26-year-old pitching next season.

It took May 475 days to resume his major league pitching career after his Tommy John Surgery in May of 2021. He made six starts for the Dodgers and pitched about as well as any young arm recovering from a major surgery would. The velocity and movement were there as those two aspects are typically the first things to come back, but the command was not as he struggled to throw strikes and was more hittable than the guy we saw before he went down with his injury. Even with all the challenges, he still had three pitches with greater than a 30% whiff rate, so it really comes down to him getting more repetitions and rediscovering his command. His electric stuff is rarely straight, but he must be able to put it where it needs to go and not rely upon it getting there accidentally. The work on reshaping his slider toward the end of the season is worth watching as well. Drafting his full ceiling is risky given the fact he has never worked a full season at the major league level and has never eclipsed the 135 inning mark in any one season as a professional.

While May was used in a flexible role during the postseason, he was mostly a true starter during the regular season, starting 10 of his 12 games. Judging purely by his 2.57 ERA, it appears as though he's already delivering on his considerable hype, but his underlying numbers don't paint him in quite the same light, especially his 4.62 FIP. May's 54.7% groundball rate and 7.1 BB% were both strong, but his 19.6 K% wasn't very impressive. He wasn't a high strikeout guy in the minors, either, posting a 23.3 K% at the two highest levels. May's 8.4% swinging-strike rate came in a full three ticks below league average, so, despite his pedigree, don't expect him to suddenly start racking up whiffs any time soon. It's certainly possible to carve out a long and successful career with modest strikeout numbers, and May has the rest of the profile necessary to make that work, but it does put a cap on his ceiling.

May logged over five innings in four of his first five MLB appearances and then shifted to a bullpen role due to the Dodgers' impressive rotation depth. He is the best pitching prospect in a deep system, even though his strikeout rates don't stand out. His 44.4 GB% in the majors was easily his worst mark in pro ball, and generating weak contact will be critical if May is to be a No. 2 or No. 3 starter. His repertoire is unusual, as his three best pitches (sinker, cutter, fourseam fastball) are all thrown at over 90 mph, while he has not had much success with his curveball, changeup or slider. That said, he turned 22 in September, so he is not a finished product, and no other MLB pitcher his age throws six distinct pitches with above-average command. There will be stiff competition for the Dodgers' final rotation spots. Even if May doesn't break camp in the rotation, he should still make double-digit starts.

If May can improve his secondary pitches, he would have No. 2 starter upside. Considering he is entering his age-21 season, we certainly can't rule out that possibility. A lean 6-foot-6, 180-pound righty, May has steadily increased his fastball velocity, and that pitch is now a mid-90s worm-killing monster (GB% around 55%), which gives his repertoire an excellent base. He has two decent secondary offerings in his curveball and cutter, but both pitches still need a good deal of refinement. His control was excellent (4.2 BB%) in 17 starts at High-A, and while that mark almost doubled after a promotion to Double-A (8.3 BB%), he comfortably projects to have at least 50-grade command/control in the majors. May should return to Double-A to start the year, but could spend most of 2019 at Triple-A. If he improves those two secondary offerings, his stock will skyrocket. If not, he could be a groundball-heavy No. 4 starter or power reliever.

A tall, lanky right-hander boasting an impressive mid-90s fastball with sink, May showed unexpectedly stellar command in 30.1 innings in the Arizona League following the 2016 draft. The teenager posted a 34:4 K:BB over that span, did not allow a single home run and ended up with a 3.86 ERA in his first taste of the minors. At 6-foot-6, there are some concerns about his ability to repeat his delivery, though May did not have any issues to begin his professional career. It is just as likely that May ends up in the bullpen, but for now he will remain a starter. The development of a third pitch will be key in his growth. The Dodgers could decide to be bullish on May and start him at Low-A Great Lakes to begin the 2017 campaign.