With all players dealing with small data samples, I'm going to examine some "unlucky" pitchers as possible improvers. For my player pool, I compared all starting pitchers (mininum 10 innings pitched) to each other using batting average on balls in play (BABIP), home runs per flyball rate, and left on base rate (LOB%). To put the values at the same level, I gave them a percentile rank, with 100 percent being the luckiest and 0 percent being the most unlucky.
Here are the 27 unluckiest starting pitchers. Originally, I went to 25, but I wanted to include Dean Kremer, so 27 it is.
| Name | IP | BABIP | LOB% | HR/FB | ERA | FIP | xFIP | BABIP Perctile | LOB% Percentile | HR/FB Percentile | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Mikolas | 12 | .386 | 45% | 25% | 12.41 | 8.33 | 5.29 | 12% | 19% | 42% | 24% |
| Tyler Mahle | 18 | .367 | 76% | 43% | 7.23 | 7.00 | 3.85 | 18% | 64% | 0% | 28% |
| Kodai Senga | 17 | .413 | 55% | 18% | 8.83 | 5.33 | 4.08 | 3% | 33% | 58% | 31% |
| Michael Lorenzen | 20 | .422 | 58% | 16% | 7.84 | 5.27 | 4.41 | 0% | 37% | 63% | 33% |
| Zack Littell | 14 | .364 | 72% | 33% | 7.71 | 6.78 | 3.61 | 20% | 59% | 22% | 34% |
| Garrett Crochet | 24 | .368 | 56% | 22% | 7.88 | 4.97 | 3.58 | 18% | 34% | 49% | 34% |
| Chris Paddack | 19 | .383 | 58% | 21% | 7.91 | 4.80 | 3.14 | 13% | 38% | 51% | 34% |
| Taijuan Walker | 18 | .361 | 62% | 26% | 9.16 | 7.37 | 4.89 | 21% | 44% | 39% | 34% |
| Jesus Luzardo | 27 | .395 | 54% | 16% | 6.91 | 3.25 | 2.78 | 9% | 32% | 63% | 35% |
| Ryne Nelson | 20 | .270 | 33% | 13% | 6.97 | 5.03 | 4.50 | 52% | 0% | 69% | 40% |
| Dustin |
With all players dealing with small data samples, I'm going to examine some "unlucky" pitchers as possible improvers. For my player pool, I compared all starting pitchers (mininum 10 innings pitched) to each other using batting average on balls in play (BABIP), home runs per flyball rate, and left on base rate (LOB%). To put the values at the same level, I gave them a percentile rank, with 100 percent being the luckiest and 0 percent being the most unlucky.
Here are the 27 unluckiest starting pitchers. Originally, I went to 25, but I wanted to include Dean Kremer, so 27 it is.
| Name | IP | BABIP | LOB% | HR/FB | ERA | FIP | xFIP | BABIP Perctile | LOB% Percentile | HR/FB Percentile | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Mikolas | 12 | .386 | 45% | 25% | 12.41 | 8.33 | 5.29 | 12% | 19% | 42% | 24% |
| Tyler Mahle | 18 | .367 | 76% | 43% | 7.23 | 7.00 | 3.85 | 18% | 64% | 0% | 28% |
| Kodai Senga | 17 | .413 | 55% | 18% | 8.83 | 5.33 | 4.08 | 3% | 33% | 58% | 31% |
| Michael Lorenzen | 20 | .422 | 58% | 16% | 7.84 | 5.27 | 4.41 | 0% | 37% | 63% | 33% |
| Zack Littell | 14 | .364 | 72% | 33% | 7.71 | 6.78 | 3.61 | 20% | 59% | 22% | 34% |
| Garrett Crochet | 24 | .368 | 56% | 22% | 7.88 | 4.97 | 3.58 | 18% | 34% | 49% | 34% |
| Chris Paddack | 19 | .383 | 58% | 21% | 7.91 | 4.80 | 3.14 | 13% | 38% | 51% | 34% |
| Taijuan Walker | 18 | .361 | 62% | 26% | 9.16 | 7.37 | 4.89 | 21% | 44% | 39% | 34% |
| Jesus Luzardo | 27 | .395 | 54% | 16% | 6.91 | 3.25 | 2.78 | 9% | 32% | 63% | 35% |
| Ryne Nelson | 20 | .270 | 33% | 13% | 6.97 | 5.03 | 4.50 | 52% | 0% | 69% | 40% |
| Dustin May | 24 | .395 | 64% | 10% | 5.84 | 3.95 | 3.98 | 9% | 47% | 76% | 44% |
| Mike Burrows | 26 | .378 | 67% | 14% | 6.75 | 4.83 | 4.24 | 15% | 50% | 68% | 44% |
| Nathan Eovaldi | 26 | .354 | 71% | 19% | 5.06 | 4.42 | 3.32 | 23% | 57% | 55% | 45% |
| Luis Castillo | 23 | .392 | 63% | 8% | 5.01 | 3.57 | 3.93 | 10% | 45% | 81% | 45% |
| David Peterson | 19 | .391 | 62% | 7% | 6.41 | 3.34 | 3.66 | 11% | 43% | 83% | 46% |
| Brayan Bello | 18 | .328 | 63% | 17% | 6.75 | 5.77 | 5.00 | 32% | 45% | 61% | 46% |
| Kyle Bradish | 25 | .417 | 71% | 9% | 4.68 | 3.50 | 3.72 | 2% | 57% | 80% | 46% |
| Yusei Kikuchi | 24 | .362 | 70% | 12% | 5.63 | 4.02 | 3.82 | 20% | 55% | 72% | 49% |
| Aaron Nola | 26 | .347 | 72% | 15% | 5.06 | 4.04 | 3.43 | 25% | 58% | 64% | 49% |
| Andrew Painter | 13 | .395 | 68% | 5% | 5.40 | 3.07 | 4.05 | 9% | 52% | 88% | 50% |
| Luis Severino | 24 | .310 | 70% | 19% | 6.20 | 5.74 | 4.80 | 38% | 56% | 56% | 50% |
| Logan Webb | 30 | .319 | 60% | 11% | 5.40 | 3.41 | 3.41 | 35% | 40% | 75% | 50% |
| Lance McCullers Jr. | 20 | .308 | 57% | 11% | 6.20 | 3.98 | 3.98 | 39% | 36% | 75% | 50% |
| Slade Cecconi | 24 | .293 | 66% | 17% | 6.20 | 5.98 | 4.96 | 44% | 49% | 60% | 51% |
| Emmet Sheehan | 20 | .286 | 67% | 19% | 5.85 | 5.14 | 3.98 | 46% | 51% | 56% | 51% |
| Adrian Houser | 21 | .313 | 59% | 10% | 5.40 | 4.43 | 4.50 | 37% | 39% | 77% | 51% |
| Dean Kremer | 11 | .190 | 68% | 33% | 4.09 | 5.50 | 2.27 | 79% | 53% | 22% | 51% |
| Average | .352 | 62% | 17% | 6.62 | 4.92 | 3.97 |
And here are some pitchers rostered in fewer than 75 percent of NFBC Rotowire Online Championship leagues. There is nothing actionable for highly-rostered pitchers like Garrett Crochet and Jesus Luzardo.
Tyler Mahle (37%): So far this season, Mahle is getting punished with home runs (2.9 HR/9) despite a 52 percent groundball rate. I'm not as worried about the home runs compared to the 5.8 BB/9 and subsequent 1.93 WHIP. The only pitches he can throw for strikes (four-seamer, cutter) don't miss any bats, with a six percent swinging strike rate for the former and a zero percent swinging strike rate for the latter.
Kodai Senga (82%): Even with his fastball velocity up 1.5 mph and an 11.4 K/9, his walks (5.2 BB/9) are a killer in leagues that count WHIP. He's constantly battling from behind, with a 51 percent first strike percentage, the seventh lowest in baseball. I wish I could say the luck will even out, but he's making his own bad luck right now.
Zack Littell (2%): I wish there was something to grasp onto there, but every aspect of his game (i.e., velocity, control) is going backwards from last season. There's nothing here.
Chris Paddack (1%): Paddack is a perfect example of a pitcher being a little bit unlucky in each category. Each factor on its own isn't causing his 7.91 ERA. Of the 147 pitchers who met the criteria, his 21.3 percent K-BB% ranks 22nd, with Braxton Ashcraft, Jose Soriano, MacKenzie Gore and Joe Ryan being the pitchers around him. Even with a plus changeup (20 percent swinging strike rate), he struggles against lefties (4.88 FIP) compared to righties (2.63 FIP).
Dustin May (34%): Another example of each factor making him look worse than he's thrown. So far this season, his biggest improvement is a drop from a 3.8 BB/9 to 1.8 BB/9. His fastball velocity is up two ticks from 95 mph to 97 mph. Solid add.
Mike Burrows (75%): I was all-in on Burrows this preseason, but a small velocity dip (-0.7 mph) has his strikeouts down (-0.7 K/9). Otherwise, he projects to be the same low-4.00s ERA pitcher he was last season. Bench or waiver wire streamer based on the league's depth.
David Peterson (24%): I had a few nice things to say about Peterson, but the team just moved him to the bullpen.
Yusei Kikuchi (32%): With some recent mechanical changes, Kikuchi would be my top target of the guys I focused on in this article. In his last start, he went six innings with eight strikeouts, one walk and zero earned runs. Maybe the changes won't matter, but I wouldn't want to miss a similar breakout that happened with his teammate, Jose Soriano. Kikuchi can be a solid arm as long as he throws strikes.
Lance McCullers Jr. (31%): A combination of a few too many walks (4.0 BB/9) and a bit of bad luck (57 percent LOB%) has led to the 6.20 ERA. I feel McCullers is in the same boat as Burrows. They aren't horrible starters, but there are likely better options most weeks. He's a streamer.
Slade Cecconi (34%): I don't get his high rostership rate. His ERA estimators point to a 5.00 ERA talent, and the 4.4 BB/9 has him with a 1.58 WHIP. He needs to be dropped.
Dean Kremer (24%): I went all in this past weekend, adding Kremer in every league I could.
Some bad home run luck (3.3 HR/9) is masking a pitcher with a 33 percent K-BB% (ranked No. 1 among all pitchers in the original sample). There will be some downward regression, but numbers like this shouldn't be ignored. He's throwing a bit harder with a revamped arsenal. He has cut his fastball (-13 percentage points) and cutter (-14 percentage points) usage while leaning into his splitter (+21 percentage points with a 26 percent swinging strike rate). Changes + Improved Results = Buy, Buy, Buy.
