Triston Casas

Casas struggled early, posting a miserable .184/.300/.342 line over his first 49 games. The club stuck with the youngster as they liked his approach, and his average exit velocity and hard-hit rate portended better outcomes. Sure enough, Casas went .307/.404/.570 the rest of the way, though his season ended prematurely in mid-September with right shoulder inflammation. Casas' average exit velocity dropped half a tick over the second half, but his hard-hit rate increased six points, fueling a BABIP increase from .229 to .362. Part of Casas' improvement was embracing the pitch clock by meticulously following the same routine for every pitch, and frequently using his timeout when he was behind in the count. Casas is below average defensively, but improved over the course of the season and has the work ethic to keep getting better. Casas will be hard-pressed to match last season's second half over a full season, but he has a solid chance to improve on the year as a whole.

Casas, a hulking 6-foot-4, 252-pound first baseman, finally made his MLB debut late last season and projects to be Boston's starter out of camp in 2023, especially with Eric Hosmer cut loose. He has huge raw power to all fields, boasting an elite 40.2 Hard% in the minors and a 110.5 mph max exit velocity in a tiny MLB sample (53 batted balls). A lefty hitter, Casas had a .617 OPS in 2022 and a .591 OPS in 2021 against minor-league southpaws. Considering chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom came from Tampa Bay, it wouldn't be surprising to see Casas on the strong side of a platoon if Boston is intent on winning as many games as possible in 2023. He has consistently logged walk rates over 14 percent and projects to offer more value in OBP leagues than AVG leagues. Casas is not necessarily overweight, but he has a massive frame, so it is mildly concerning that he missed time with the ankle injury and was dealing with a knee injury at the end of the season that lingered into Dominican Winter League play.

Casas was quite busy last season, hitting .279/.394/.484 with 14 home runs in 86 games across Double-A and Triple-A before hitting .372 with one home run and six doubles in 21 games in the Arizona Fall League. He also hit .385/.484/.615 while representing Team USA in the Olympics in the middle of the summer. Casas's 70-grade raw power hasn't fully translated in games just yet, with his top current skill being an extraordinary command of the strike zone for a player who will turn 22 in January. He registered a 15.8 BB% and a 19.0 K% across his three non-Olympic stops, and while he wasn't drafted by this current Red Sox regime, he is the exact kind of hitter they value and want to build around. Casas, who measures in at 6-foot-5 and 245 pounds and bats left-handed, will always be more valuable in OBP leagues than in AVG leagues, and it remains to be seen how much of his raw power he will get to at his peak. The hope is that he will eventually be a Matt Olson type of middle-of-the-order run producer. He will head back to Triple-A to start the season before getting a chance to take over the everyday duties at first base for Boston around June or July.

Public reports on Casas' time at Boston's alternate training site have led to him rocketing up prospect lists, even though we don't have tangible data to back up that ascent. He was already trending up after a breakout 2019 season at Low-A, but it sounds like he took another leap this past summer. The lefty hitting first baseman reported to camp in great shape and showed strong plate coverage and an all-fields approach against more advanced pitchers. He is power over hit, but should log high walk rates in the majors, so he is probably going to be more valuable in OBP leagues. The 6-foot-4 slugger is lauded for his makeup and work ethic, and while it is unclear if he will hit .245 or closer to .275, he seems like a safe bet to produce enough to clear the offensive bar of being a big-league first baseman. If there is a minor-league season, Casas could open the year at Double-A with an MLB ETA of early 2022.

First base prospects are a dying breed -- only a handful crack the top-100 fantasy prospect rankings. Casas is one of a select few who have a real chance to be a top-10 fantasy first baseman some day. The No. 26 overall pick in 2018, Casas was seen as a power-over-hit prospect whose swing-and-miss issues could sink him. He quieted those concerns in his full-season debut, logging a 136 wRC+, .218 ISO, 35.7 Hard%, 23.5 K% and 11.8 BB% as one of the youngest players in the Sally League. He is adept at lifting the ball (42.8 GB%) and surprisingly excelled at using the whole field (35.7 Oppo%). Casas hit just .213 with a 33.7 K% against southpaws, so it's possible he will need a platoon partner at the highest level, but he also has several years to work on improving that aspect of his hitting. He should spend most of 2020 at High-A and should reach the majors in late-2021 or early-2022.