Out
Injury Back
Est. Return 2/1/2026
2025 Stats
W-L
8-7
ERA
4.15
WHIP
1.29
K
125
SV
0
Rest-of-Season Projections
2025 Fantasy Outlook
No team allocated free agent starting pitching dollars more wisely than the Royals last offseason. Michael Wacha was great and Lugo was even better, winning 16 games and finishing with an even 3.00 ERA over a league-high 33 starts. A 21.7 percent strikeout rate left something to be desired, but Lugo provided so much volume with a surprising 206.2 innings that he accumulated 181 strikeouts, which tied him for 20th in baseball. It looked from July to August like the former reliever might be tiring as he put up a 4.86 ERA, but Lugo bounced back with a 2.28 ERA and 26:4 K:BB in 27.2 September innings. Perhaps the big workload increase will catch up with Lugo in 2025 instead, and some natural regression is likely either way, given his xERA of 3.72 in 2024. Read Past Outlooks
Signed a two-year, $46 million contract extension with the Royals in July of 2025. Contract includes $20 million vesting option or $17 million team option ($3 million buyout) for 2028.
Done for 2025 season
Royals manager Matt Quatraro confirmed Sunday that Lugo (back) won't return this season, Jackson Stone of MLB.com reports.
Analysis
Lugo landed on the injured list due to a back issue in early September. He was able to throw a bullpen session early this week but did not respond well. Quatraro explained Sunday that the injury is "not getting better quickly enough to do anything meaningful for him to come out here and force it." Lugo will finish his 10th MLB campaign with a 4.15 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 125:55 K:BB while posting an 8-7 record over 26 starts spanning 145.1 innings. There's currently no reason to believe that he won't be able to have a normal offseason.
Lugo landed on the injured list due to a back issue in early September. He was able to throw a bullpen session early this week but did not respond well. Quatraro explained Sunday that the injury is "not getting better quickly enough to do anything meaningful for him to come out here and force it." Lugo will finish his 10th MLB campaign with a 4.15 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 125:55 K:BB while posting an 8-7 record over 26 starts spanning 145.1 innings. There's currently no reason to believe that he won't be able to have a normal offseason.
Pitching Stats
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2025 MLB Game Log
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2024
2023
2022
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2019
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2017
Minor League Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
92
Last 10 Games
88
Last 5 Games
88
How many pitches does Seth Lugo generally throw?
1-10
11-20
21-30
31-40
41-50
51-60
61-70
71-80
81-90
91-100
101-110
111-120
121+
What part of the game does Seth Lugo generally pitch?
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2023
-14%
BAA vs RHP
2025
-25%
BAA vs RHP
| BAA | K | BB | H | HR | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Since 2023vs Left | .256 | 244 | 81 | 259 | 40 | |||
| Since 2023vs Right | .220 | 202 | 58 | 191 | 22 | |||
| 2025vs Left | .272 | 67 | 31 | 88 | 21 | |||
| 2025vs Right | .203 | 58 | 24 | 45 | 6 | |||
| 2024vs Left | .246 | 101 | 32 | 99 | 7 | |||
| 2024vs Right | .211 | 80 | 16 | 78 | 9 | |||
| 2023vs Left | .252 | 76 | 18 | 72 | 12 | |||
| 2023vs Right | .245 | 64 | 18 | 68 | 7 | |||
| More Splits→ | View More Split Stats | |||||||
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2023
-1%
ERA on Road
2025
-24%
ERA at Home
| ERA | WHIP | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Since 2023Home | 3.52 | 1.23 | 248.1 | 7.6 | 2.8 | ||||
| Since 2023Away | 3.49 | 1.13 | 250.0 | 8.5 | 2.3 | ||||
| 2025Home | 3.61 | 1.36 | 77.1 | 7.3 | 4.2 | ||||
| 2025Away | 4.76 | 1.22 | 68.0 | 8.2 | 2.5 | ||||
| 2024Home | 3.36 | 1.14 | 107.0 | 7.0 | 2.1 | ||||
| 2024Away | 2.62 | 1.03 | 99.2 | 8.8 | 2.1 | ||||
| 2023Home | 3.66 | 1.23 | 64.0 | 8.9 | 2.1 | ||||
| 2023Away | 3.50 | 1.18 | 82.1 | 8.4 | 2.3 | ||||
| More Splits→ | View More Split Stats | ||||||||
Stat Review
How does Seth Lugo compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.
* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
K/BB
2.27K/9
7.7BB/9
3.4HR/9
1.7Fastball
91.6 mphERA
4.15WHIP
1.29BABIP
.271GB/FB
1.15Left On Base
78.6%Exit Velocity
82.6 mphBarrels/BBE
7.0%Spin Rate
2512 rpmBalls Hit 95+ MPH
28.3%Swinging Strike
8.4%Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
Lugo, long a multi-inning reliever, was a full-time starter in 2023 for the first time with mixed results. He finished the season with solid ratios, but a decline in strikeouts and wins in just 8 of his 33 starts limited his overall fantasy value. Lugo has long been known for his high spin rate pitches, but his two primary offerings did not perform the same as a starter as they did when he came in from the pen. The league hit .171 off his fastball and .159 off his curveball in 2022, but those numbers jumped to .247 and .280 last year when he worked as a starter despite both pitches maintaining their high spin rates. Lugo's velocity dipped a bit working in the rotation as well. He opted out of the final year of his deal to become a free agent and cashed in with a three-year, $45 million deal in Kansas City. The workload increase of nearly 100 innings from 2021 to last year is a concern, but Lugo's contract should assure him a rotation spot with the Royals while he remains healthy.
More Fantasy News
Unlikely to return in 2025
Lugo (back) hasn't resumed throwing after a recent setback and Royals manager Matt Quatraro said this week that a 2025 return is a "longshot," Anne Rogers of MLB.com reports.
Analysis
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Return delayed
Lugo (back) did not respond well to his bullpen session Monday, so he will be shut down for a few more days, Anne Rogers of MLB.com reports.
Analysis
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Receives cortisone injection
Lugo (back) received a cortisone injection Thursday and will resume throwing Sunday or Monday, Jaylon T. Thompson of The Kansas City Star reports.
Analysis
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Lands on injured list
The Royals placed Lugo on the 15-day injured list Thursday with a lower-back strain, Anne Rogers of MLB.com reports.
Analysis
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Next start pushed back
Manager Matt Quatraro said Wednesday that Lugo's next start will be delayed due to lower-back tightness, Anne Rogers of MLB.com reports.
Analysis
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Latest Fantasy Rumors
Unlikely to return soon
Lugo, who's dealing with a back injury, isn't expected back on the mound in the near future, according to Anne Rogers of MLB.com.
Analysis
Lugo hasn't pitched since August 29 due to a lower back strain, and he had a setback following a bullpen session on Monday. As such, manager Matt Quatraro told reporters that a scenario where Lugo returns to action before the end of the season is a "long shot." Simply put, the veteran might not have enough time to ramp up and recover before the end of the season.
Lugo hasn't pitched since August 29 due to a lower back strain, and he had a setback following a bullpen session on Monday. As such, manager Matt Quatraro told reporters that a scenario where Lugo returns to action before the end of the season is a "long shot." Simply put, the veteran might not have enough time to ramp up and recover before the end of the season.