Oneil Cruz

Cruz's season lasted all of nine games before he fractured his ankle on a contact play April 9 against the Chicago White Sox. He attempted to come back before the end of the season, but the soreness in his ankle never quite went away and the team decided to shut him down and get him healthy for 2024. It is best if we just wash 2023 away and look back at 2022 where we saw him strike out at a high volume, yet his O-Swing percentage as well as his overall contact percentage improved as the season went on. Cruz should have the double blessing of hitting in the middle of the Pittsburgh lineup as well as the permission to play every day that his ankle permits him on the field. We may not see the same speed we saw from him right away, but the power should be there as he is reacclimated himself to the grind of daily games at the big league level. This is more of a rust/reward issue than a risk/reward one.

Cruz is a walking highlight reel. He is a physical specimen at 6-foot-7, 210 pounds and packs some of the loudest tools you're ever likely to see on a baseball field. In late August, Cruz hit a batted ball at 122.4 mph, setting a new record for the Statcast era. His sprint speed ranked in the 98th percentile last season. As expected, there were some swing-and-miss issues (34.9 K%), though he shaved the strikeouts down over the season's final month and really took off (.288/.359/.525). The upside is obvious with the former top prospect, but it's important to remember that he's still just 24 years old and will be playing for a Pirates team without much around him in one of the game's worst ballparks for offense.

Rarely has a 38 plate-appearance sample shifted the perceived value of a player to the extent we've seen with Cruz. He had a very strong run at Double-A last season, hitting .292/.346/.536 with 12 home runs, 18 steals, a 23.4 K% and 7.3 BB% in 62 games. Cruz was then rewarded with a six-game run at Triple-A followed by two games in the majors. He hit .466 with six home runs, nine strikeouts and eight walks in those eight games and propelled himself into the top 300 of early NFBC ADP in the process. His most bankable fantasy-relevant tool is 70-grade raw power that he utilizes to all fields. Cruz's lanky 6-foot-7 frame enables him to leverage the ball in a manner matched by few sluggers in the history of the game. His long levers will always lead to plenty of strikeouts, but he is not stiff at the plate and he has the flexibility to golf out balls below his knees for home runs. Cruz's physical dimensions make it impossible to confidently project his hit tool, and the massive gap in pitching quality at Triple-A and the majors can't be overstated. While his run at Triple-A and the majors can't be thrown out completely, his Double-A performance is a more relevant data point. Pittsburgh figures to give him the keys at shortstop early this season and while his plus-plus raw power and plus speed give him a very high power/speed ceiling, his batting average as a rookie could be anywhere from the .181 Jarred Kelenic logged to something above .250.

After spending the summer at the alternate training site, Cruz was arrested in the Dominican Republic after a car he was driving struck a motorcycle in an accident with three fatalities. This is a delicate subject, and Cruz, who was out past the country's COVID-19 curfew, is at best guilty of poor decision making. He went on to play winter ball and the team has said he should be a full participant in spring training. For those who weigh maximum exit velocity strongly, Cruz's offensive ceiling is up there with any prospect. However, at 6-foot-7, there will be holes in his swing for MLB pitchers to exploit. He has played shortstop so far, but right field seems like the best long-term fit. Cruz is also a plus runner, but his speed figures to trend down in the coming years. For a player who should spend most of his age-22 season at Triple-A, there is still a huge gap between Cruz's floor and ceiling.

Likely the tallest Double-A shortstop ever, the 6-foot-7 Cruz should be commended for not having to move off the position yet, but that still feels like an inevitability. His bat will profile anywhere if he reaches his ceiling. Unsurprisingly, given his size, he could develop 70-grade power. The big question is whether he will make enough contact against MLB pitchers to get to that power with any consistency. Since 1980, only six hitters 6-foot-6 or taller have had sustained success, so betting against Cruz has its merits. He had a 28.5 K% in 84 games at High-A, Double-A and the Arizona Fall League (he missed two months with a broken foot) but didn't turn 21 until October. Cruz is an excellent athlete and could steal 10-15 bases early in his career. We probably won't know for a couple years if his hit tool will play in the majors, but he could have an Aaron Judge-esque offensive profile if it all clicks.

While Cruz may eventually change positions, the fact remains he was a full-time shortstop in a repeat of Low-A, despite standing 6-foot-6 (roughly 180 pounds). There is no precedent for a player his size sticking up the middle, so let's assume he will move to a corner -- his 80-grade arm would fit nicely at third base or in right field. Despite repeating the level, Cruz was one of the youngest players in the Sally League, where his 134 wRC+ ranked sixth and his .201 ISO ranked 10th. His 22.6 K% was impressive, and his 50-grade speed led to 11 steals on 16 attempts. Of players who debuted in 1980 or later, Richie Sexson, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Corey Hart, Adam Dunn and Darryl Strawberry are the only position players 6-foot-6 or taller who have had prolonged success. Cruz has the same carrying tool (huge raw power) as those players and could join that group if he makes enough contact, but it's important to note how rare it would be.