Nicky Lopez

Lopez's BABIP-dependent hitting didn't work out in 2022, making his breakout in 2021 look like the exception rather than the rule. The infielder regressed to a .227/.281/.273 slash line with a .265 BABIP through 141 games last year, and once Bobby Witt established himself near the top of the order, Lopez often hit in the bottom third. Speed's about the only thing Lopez has going in his favor -- he stole 13 bases on 16 attempts last year while playing for one of the worst offenses in the majors. As if his future with the Royals could get much cloudier, Michael Massey's arrival to fill second base will likely leave Lopez as a utility man in his age-28 season. If he can't hit above .270, the complete lack of power in his bat nullifies any potential base-stealing boost Lopez could offer in fantasy.

Lopez's 2021 season would have probably gone unnoticed if it were not for a seven-game stretch in late August when he stole eight bases. Coming into the season he had just under 600 career plate appearances with a .586 OPS, three homers, and was just 1-for-7 on the bases. He should have been an afterthought for everyone. Two changes happened. First, he raised his BABIP nearly 80 points, pushing up his AVG, OBP and SLG along with it. Not all of the change was luck since his avgEV was up two mph, and he sprayed the ball all over the field. It helps that he has a good eye as seen by an 8.7 BB% and just 13.1 K% last season. His .365 OBP is nothing to sneeze at. Second, he became a real threat on the basepaths with 22 successful swipes in 23 attempts. The combination of getting on base and stealing bases meant the Royals had him hit him second, thereby affording Lopez the chance to accumulate almost 80 runs. The big question going forward is if he's a .340 BABIP or .260 BABIP guy or somewhere in between. With Lopez's complete lack of power, he needs it to be on the high side.

Lopez has been afforded ample opportunity, but he's been unable to build on his rookie campaign. Lopez's game is contact, so while it was encouraging to see his walk rate jump to 9.4 BB% in 2020, more than doubled his mark from the previous season, a jump from a 12.7 K% to 21.4% was disappointing. Further, Lopez was thrown out all five times he attempted to steal. The lefty swinger was especially poor against lefty pitching, slashing just .162/.262/.243 in that scenario, suggesting a platoon could be in his future in 2021, albeit on the more active side. Lopez will likely be given another chance at the everyday gig at the keystone as there isn't anyone else to challenge him unless the Royals move Whit Merrifield back to the infield. At some point, Bobby Witt will be ready, likely pushing Alberto Mondesi over to second. Until then, Lopez will offer empty batting average and little else.

Lopez made his major-league debut in mid-May after putting on a plate-discipline clinic (14.5 BB%, 3.6 K%) against Triple-A pitching for the first month of the season. He took over the starting job at second base but also saw time at shortstop after Adalberto Mondesi went on the IL, making 100 starts in total. The middle infielder had a 56 wRC+ in 2019, which would have ranked dead last in MLB among qualified hitters. Lopez is a plus defender but will need to lower his 62.2 GB% and improve his 4.5 BB% if he's going to have any staying power in his sophomore campaign. He did steal 15-plus bases each year in the minors, but he had only one stolen base after being promoted in May. The Royals are in full rebuild mode and lack quality depth behind Lopez at second base, so he will likely be given a fair shot to rebound in his age-25 season. Even so, his lack of realistic counting-stat upside limits his appeal.

Lopez has risen quickly through the minor-league ranks since being drafted in the fifth round out of Creighton University in 2016. He faced little resistance at the Double-A level over the first half of the 2018 season, walking 10 more times than he struck out with a 20.6% line-drive rate, resulting in a .370 wOBA and 127 wRC+ in 325 PA. His contact rate slipped a bit with the jump to Triple-A Omaha, but his K% was still just 11.3. Lopez maintained a double-digit walk rate and his power exploded in the PCL. He hit seven homers in just 57 games with the Royals' top affiliate, only three fewer than he managed in his first 264 professional games. It was nice to see a surge in that department, but it's tough to buy into the power given he's always been north of 50 percent with his groundball rate. Lopez will already be 24 on Opening Day and is never going to be a star player, but his bat profiles just fine in the middle infield.