60-Day IL
Injury Elbow
Est. Return 5/1/2026
2025 Stats
W-L
3-1
ERA
4.76
WHIP
1.15
K
21
SV
0
Rest-of-Season Projections
2025 Fantasy Outlook
Steele had a breakout season in 2023 but somewhat of a breakdown 2024 season when you look at him from a medical angle. The hamstring strain he incurred in his first start of the season led to him missing a month, but then left forearm soreness in late August was a scare, especially for someone who has already had Tommy John surgery. Thankfully, Steele made it back to throw two more games before the season ended, so some of the mystery around the injury was resolved. Steele continues to employ a very unusual repertoire for a starter, as he throws his four-seamer or his slider nearly 90 percent of the time. Lefties continued to have little success against him, while righties are still mostly kept at bay because Steele does not hurt himself with walks, and the use of the changeup and curve at least keep righties guessing. That combination has helped him become one of the better hard contact suppressors in the league. Nearly every indicator points in the right direction, but the health scare of September is a fresh reminder of his downside for 2025. Read Past Outlooks
Signed a one-year, $6.55 million contract with the Cubs in January of 2025.
Begins throwing program
Steele (elbow) began a throwing program Monday, the pitcher posted from his X account.
Analysis
The left-hander was cleared to throw on flat ground for the first time since undergoing UCL revision surgery in April. A firm timetable for Steele's readiness to pitch in games isn't clear, but he's likely to get a late start to next season. The left-hander boasts a 3.18 ERA and 458:128 K:BB over 449.2 innings since the beginning of the 2022 campaign.
The left-hander was cleared to throw on flat ground for the first time since undergoing UCL revision surgery in April. A firm timetable for Steele's readiness to pitch in games isn't clear, but he's likely to get a late start to next season. The left-hander boasts a 3.18 ERA and 458:128 K:BB over 449.2 innings since the beginning of the 2022 campaign.
Pitching Stats
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2025 MLB Game Log
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
Minor League Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
78
Last 10 Games
78
Last 5 Games
78
How many pitches does Justin Steele generally throw?
1-10
11-20
21-30
31-40
41-50
51-60
61-70
71-80
81-90
91-100
101-110
111-120
121+
What part of the game does Justin Steele generally pitch?
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2023
-5%
BAA vs LHP
2025
-33%
BAA vs LHP
| BAA | K | BB | H | HR | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Since 2023vs Left | .228 | 80 | 17 | 58 | 8 | |||
| Since 2023vs Right | .240 | 252 | 61 | 241 | 23 | |||
| 2025vs Left | .185 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 0 | |||
| 2025vs Right | .276 | 15 | 3 | 16 | 5 | |||
| 2024vs Left | .188 | 32 | 7 | 18 | 2 | |||
| 2024vs Right | .227 | 103 | 30 | 93 | 10 | |||
| 2023vs Left | .267 | 42 | 8 | 35 | 6 | |||
| 2023vs Right | .247 | 134 | 28 | 132 | 8 | |||
| More Splits→ | View More Split Stats | |||||||
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2023
-13%
ERA at Home
2025
-24%
ERA at Home
| ERA | WHIP | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Since 2023Home | 2.97 | 1.16 | 178.2 | 9.2 | 2.3 | ||||
| Since 2023Away | 3.43 | 1.12 | 152.0 | 8.9 | 1.9 | ||||
| 2025Home | 4.09 | 1.00 | 11.0 | 10.6 | 2.5 | ||||
| 2025Away | 5.40 | 1.29 | 11.2 | 6.2 | 1.5 | ||||
| 2024Home | 3.29 | 1.14 | 65.2 | 8.8 | 3.0 | ||||
| 2024Away | 2.87 | 1.06 | 69.0 | 9.3 | 2.0 | ||||
| 2023Home | 2.65 | 1.19 | 102.0 | 9.3 | 1.9 | ||||
| 2023Away | 3.66 | 1.15 | 71.1 | 9.0 | 1.9 | ||||
| More Splits→ | View More Split Stats | ||||||||
Stat Review
How does Justin Steele compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.
* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
K/BB
4.20K/9
8.3BB/9
2.0HR/9
2.0Fastball
90.8 mphERA
4.76WHIP
1.15BABIP
.272GB/FB
1.23Left On Base
73.7%Exit Velocity
85.3 mphBarrels/BBE
4.7%Spin Rate
2449 rpmBalls Hit 95+ MPH
30.2%Swinging Strike
9.6%Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2024
2023
2022
2016
There was a lot to like with Steele coming into the 2023 season as a pitcher who kept the ball in the yard, threw a lot of strikes and generated a fair number of whiffs. Our 2023 outlook even said he could be in store for a nice fantasy season, but who saw him doubling his career win total and continuing the positive peripheral growth for a third consecutive season? If not for Blake Snell's amazing run or all of Spencer Strider's strikeouts and wins, Steele could have garnered more supporters for a Cy Young argument with the season he had. So what if he does not have the velocity of other pitchers when he can match results with the best of them? The amazing part is he does this using two pitches 97% of the time, which does leave him exposed to the third-time-through penalty. He may never be a 200-inning arm, but Steele is a pitcher on the rise approaching frontline status.
More Fantasy News
Shifts to 60-day injured list
The Cubs transferred Steele (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday, Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic reports.
Analysis
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Undergoes UCL surgery Friday
Steele underwent UCL revision repair operation on his left elbow Friday, Andy Martinez of Marquee Sports Network reports.
Analysis
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Set for season-ending surgery
Cubs manager Craig Counsell said Sunday that Steele will undergo season-ending surgery to repair his flexor tendon and address UCL damage in his left elbow, Patrick Mooney of The Athletic reports.
Analysis
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Seeking second opinion
Manager Craig Counsell said Friday that Steele will get a second opinion on his left elbow, Alden Gonzalez of ESPN.com reports.
Analysis
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Aiming for minimum IL stay
Steele (elbow) believes he will require only a minimum 15-day stay on the injured list, Jesse Rogers of ESPN.com reports.
Analysis
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Latest Fantasy Rumors
Earning 2022 rotation spot?
Steele pitched seven scoreless innings in a win Thursday and could be solidifying his spot in next season's rotation.
Analysis
The Cubs have plenty of question marks behind ace Kyle Hendricks, and Steele has flashed some potential, though he's also had his share of rough outings. The lefty at least should have a chance at earning a rotation spot heading into next season depending on what the team does in free agency.
The Cubs have plenty of question marks behind ace Kyle Hendricks, and Steele has flashed some potential, though he's also had his share of rough outings. The lefty at least should have a chance at earning a rotation spot heading into next season depending on what the team does in free agency.