Josiah Gray

On the surface, it might look like Gray took a significant step forward last year. He reached the 30-start plateau and stopped allowing quite as many home runs as his ERA dropped from 5.02 in 2022 to 3.91 in 2023. There is more to the story, though, and none of it is particularly encouraging. The most glaring issue is Gray's walk rate, which rose from 10.2 percent in 2022 to 11.5 percent in 2023, third-worst among the 58 major-league starters who logged more than 150 innings last season. Also concerning is that his strikeout rate fell from 23.7 percent in 2022 to 20.5 percent in 2023 despite various tweaks and modifications to his arsenal. A lack of command makes Gray a detriment when it comes to WHIP, and he doesn't miss enough bats to make up for it like a Blake Snell or Dylan Cease.

Gray completed his first full season in the majors with 28 starts and had a 5.02 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and 154:66 K:BB across 148.2 innings. His strikeout and walk rates (23.7 and 10.2 percent, respectively) remained relatively unchanged from his first taste of the big leagues in 2021, and he also had the same HR/FB rate (18.6 percent). The subpar Washington defense didn't help his numbers, which is illustrated by his 4.57 xFIP. Now entering his age-25 campaign, the Nationals are likely banking on Gray taking a significant step forward in 2023, and he should be locked into a rotation spot as long as he stays healthy. His fantasy outlook is a bit less certain, but the potential and workload will be there in spades.

Gray reached the majors as a 23-year-old in 2021 and showed why he was a key piece in the Trea Turner deal. Gray has two excellent breaking balls that each generated whiffs 45% of the time or more and the league hit below .200 against both offerings. Those two pitches helped him strike out 25% or more of the hitters he faced at every stop throughout the minor leagues. It was not until he reached the majors that hitters became more disciplined and forced him to throw fastballs when down in the count and made him pay for it with 12 homers, a .282 average and .620 slugging percentage. All in all, he allowed 19 homers in 70.2 innings last season while struggling with his command, which marked the first time he had any such struggles to that extent. More consistent fastball command could allow him to take a big step forward in 2022 as a guaranteed member of the Nationals' rotation.

It's been a couple years since the Dodgers swindled the Reds in the deal that sent Gray to Los Angeles. They already flipped Jeter Downs to get Mookie Betts and Gray should start making an impact in the majors early this season. The converted shortstop has only been pitching full time for a few years, so it's quite the feat that he is not only close to big-league ready, but that he is a good bet to have a long career as a starting pitcher. The 6-foot-1 righty has a trio of above-average to plus offerings (fastball, slider, changeup) and his athleticism allows him to command his pitches quite well. He could have debuted last year if there was a need, and the Dodgers' internal depth could result in his debut coming as a swingman or reliever -- Dustin May's usage over the past couple years should be instructive. That usage may be frustrating early on, but eventually he should settle in as a rotation fixture.

From a fantasy standpoint, Jeter Downs was the jewel of the Dodgers' return from Cincinnati for Yasiel Puig, but Gray might have more real-life value. An athletic 6-foot-1 righty who has only been working as a starter for two years (dating back to college), Gray's mid-90s fastball remains his top offering, but his above-average slider and average changeup improved in his first full season. He does not generate groundballs at a high clip, but could end up with plus command/control. Gray climbed from Low-A (21.6 K-BB%) to High-A (25.1 K-BB%) and finished the year with an impressive run (18.6 K-BB%) as one of the youngest pitchers in the Texas League. The fact that he has come this far in less than two years in pro ball is incredibly impressive, and suggests that there is still more room for growth. He could reach the majors this summer as a reliever/swing man and could join the rotation full time in 2021.