2026 Stats
W-L
3-4
ERA
3.88
WHIP
1.44
K
76
SV
0
Rest-of-Season Projections
2026 Fantasy Outlook
Cavalli encountered multiple setbacks following March 2023 Tommy John surgery, which led to him going nearly three years in between major-league appearances when he rejoined the Nationals' rotation in August of this past season. The right-hander's velocity not only returned but was actually better, as he averaged 97 mph with his four-seamer. Cavalli picked up plenty of swings and misses with his four-seamer, curveball and changeup with a whiff rate in the 72nd percentile, but a strikeout rate in the 18th percentile didn't match up. Some positive regression in that area is likely, although he could revert in the other direction with his control, as Cavalli's 6.8 percent walk rate in his 10 starts with the Nationals was much better than the 10.5 percent walk rate he posted in the minors. After clearing 120 innings in 2025 between the majors and minors, Cavalli shouldn't face significant workload restrictions in 2026. Read Past Outlooks
Signed one-year, $870,000 contract with the Nationals in January of 2026. Contract includes $4 million team option for 2027.
Takes fourth loss Sunday
Cavalli (3-4) took the loss Sunday against Arizona, surrendering four runs on seven hits and one walk while striking out two across five innings.
Analysis
Cavalli was undone by the long ball Sunday, serving up homers to Corbin Carroll in the first inning and Gabriel Moreno in the fifth that accounted for a majority of the damage. More concerning for fantasy managers was the lack of swing-and-miss stuff, as he managed just two strikeouts across five innings after entering Sunday with 74 punchouts across 64.2 innings. Cavalli now owns a 3.88 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and 76:25 K:BB across 69.2 innings and is scheduled to face Seattle in his next start.
Cavalli was undone by the long ball Sunday, serving up homers to Corbin Carroll in the first inning and Gabriel Moreno in the fifth that accounted for a majority of the damage. More concerning for fantasy managers was the lack of swing-and-miss stuff, as he managed just two strikeouts across five innings after entering Sunday with 74 punchouts across 64.2 innings. Cavalli now owns a 3.88 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and 76:25 K:BB across 69.2 innings and is scheduled to face Seattle in his next start.
Pitching Stats
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2026 MLB Game Log
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2025
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Minor League Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
85
Last 10 Games
88
Last 5 Games
88
How many pitches does Cade Cavalli generally throw?
1-10
11-20
21-30
31-40
41-50
51-60
61-70
71-80
81-90
91-100
101-110
111-120
121+
What part of the game does Cade Cavalli generally pitch?
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2024
-7%
BAA vs LHP
2026
-26%
BAA vs RHP
| BAA | K | BB | H | HR | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Since 2024vs Left | .271 | 74 | 21 | 73 | 7 | |||
| Since 2024vs Right | .292 | 42 | 19 | 59 | 5 | |||
| 2026vs Left | .308 | 47 | 13 | 48 | 3 | |||
| 2026vs Right | .229 | 29 | 12 | 27 | 2 | |||
| 2025vs Left | .221 | 27 | 8 | 25 | 4 | |||
| 2025vs Right | .381 | 13 | 7 | 32 | 3 | |||
| 2024vs Left | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| 2024vs Right | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| More Splits→ | View More Split Stats | |||||||
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2024
-39%
ERA at Home
2026
-18%
ERA at Home
| ERA | WHIP | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Since 2024Home | 3.08 | 1.34 | 61.1 | 10.0 | 2.6 | ||||
| Since 2024Away | 5.05 | 1.58 | 57.0 | 7.6 | 3.5 | ||||
| 2026Home | 3.50 | 1.42 | 36.0 | 10.8 | 2.8 | ||||
| 2026Away | 4.28 | 1.46 | 33.2 | 8.8 | 3.7 | ||||
| 2025Home | 2.49 | 1.22 | 25.1 | 8.9 | 2.5 | ||||
| 2025Away | 6.17 | 1.76 | 23.1 | 5.8 | 3.1 | ||||
| 2024Home | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||
| 2024Away | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||
| More Splits→ | View More Split Stats | ||||||||
Stat Review
How does Cade Cavalli compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.
* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
K/BB
3.04K/9
9.8BB/9
3.2HR/9
0.6Fastball
96.4 mphERA
3.88WHIP
1.44BABIP
.368GB/FB
1.58Left On Base
67.7%Exit Velocity
82.4 mphBarrels/BBE
4.5%Spin Rate
2210 rpmBalls Hit 95+ MPH
23.2%Swinging Strike
10.8%Prospect Rankings History
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
Cavalli represents a cautionary tale for those looking to invest in young pitchers expected to return from Tommy John surgery this summer. He was due back in June of 2024 -- 15 months after his TJS -- but he experienced setbacks and dead arm and only pitched 8.1 innings across three rehab starts before getting shut down. At his best, Cavalli is a power righty with a full pitch mix and a high-strikeout ceiling as a starter, but it's possible he'll never fully return to form or that he could just end up a reliever due to durability issues. Cavalli's command was never a strength, and that's the last thing to return for pitchers returning from surgery, so he could have quite a bit of rust to knock off. The Nationals will continue to explore his potential in the big-league rotation in 2025, although he may be eased into things at Triple-A.
More Fantasy News
Fans six in no-decision
Cavalli didn't factor into the decision Monday against the Marlins after allowing two runs on five hits and three walks across five innings. He struck out six.
Analysis
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Sharp in Tuesday's win
Cavalli (3-3) picked up the win Tuesday, allowing one run on five hits and two walks over six innings in a 6-3 victory over the Guardians. He struck out seven.
Analysis
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Keeps piling up punchouts
Cavalli (2-3) took the loss Thursday against the Mets, allowing two runs on four hits and one walk in seven innings. He struck out nine.
Analysis
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Fans eight in quality start
Cavalli (2-2) earned the win Saturday against the Orioles, allowing three runs on eight hits and no walks in 6.1 innings. He struck out eight.
Analysis
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Strikes out four in no-decision
Cavalli did not factor into the decision in Sunday's 5-2 loss to the Marlins, allowing two runs on four hits and one walk with four strikeouts over 5.2 innings.
Analysis
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Latest Fantasy Rumors
Arbitration hearing expected
Cavalli requested $900,000 and was offered $825,000 by the Nationals when arbitration figures were exchanged last week, Jeff Passan of ESPN.com reports.
Analysis
A less than $100,000 difference doesn't seem to be something worth going to an arbitration hearing over, but it seems that's the direction this is headed. Cavalli -- who is eligible for salary arbitration for the first time -- finally made it back to the majors in 2025 after missing time with injury, putting up a 4.25 ERA and 40:15 K:BB in 48.2 frames covering 10 starts.
A less than $100,000 difference doesn't seem to be something worth going to an arbitration hearing over, but it seems that's the direction this is headed. Cavalli -- who is eligible for salary arbitration for the first time -- finally made it back to the majors in 2025 after missing time with injury, putting up a 4.25 ERA and 40:15 K:BB in 48.2 frames covering 10 starts.