Brendan Rodgers

It looked like Rodgers' 2023 season might end before it began after he needed surgery in March to repair a tear in his left shoulder capsule. He wound up making it back in late July, though, and after a very slow start (.202/.263/.266, zero homers in 29 games) closed strong in slashing .348/.392/.580 with four home runs over his last 17 games. Rodgers' splits (.855 OPS at home, .532 OPS on the road) were as drastic as ever, and he's never turned into the power hitter it looked like he might be when he was a top prospect. He's healthy now and is still just 27, but Rodgers just hasn't looked like a standout anywhere even with the Coors Field boost. If there's a silver lining, it's that his draft cost should reflect the lack of enthusiasm.

Rodgers has seemingly been on the scene forever, yet he is now entering his age 25 season. The journey here has been marred with mulitple injuries, and 2022 was his first "full" season in the big leagues but even it saw him play fewer than 140 games. His hitting profile is one much like other Colorado players: rakes at home (.317/.388/.511) while struggling mightily on the road (.239/.292/.354.) He does not have any one fantasy skill to target as you look to build your roster as he does not do anything particularly well. His ability to reach base is very much built on the volatility of his batting average which limits his run scoring while his next stolen base will be the first one of his career. For all the hype coming up in his prep days and his days in the minors, we are left wanting much more from him. Youth is still on his side, but your impatience is warranted.

Rodgers is one of the few Rockies hitters who might actually be worth starting on the road. After struggling for years with injuries, he's finally getting a chance to play every day. While he won't steal bases (his last stolen base attempt was back in 2018), he should provide some pop with a decent batting average. One issue is that he hits a few too many groundballs, but Rodgers did lower the rate from 58% in May to 50% in September. His production could really take off if he could drop that rate by another 10 percentage points. Besides lofting a few more batted balls, it would be nice to see him be more selective at the plate and improve on his walk rate. Also, he might be able to square up some more pitches if he weren't reaching for every pitch. If he just repeats his 2021 performance, he's a nice player and there are a few areas he could improve.

The lack of minor-league games in 2020 meant that many young players got more of a chance at the big-league level than they otherwise would have. Rodgers was not one of those. He failed to break camp in the majors and appeared in just seven games before suffering a season-ending shoulder injury. The shoulder strain was considered fairly minor, but it was surgery on that same shoulder that cost him the majority of the 2019 season, so there could be reason to worry moving forward. More worrisome, perhaps, is that he's been dreadful at the plate in 102 plate appearances thus far, hitting .196/.235/.227. That's a small sample, but it sure would have been nice to see a player of his talent show at least something. He still has his prospect hype and the potential to one day be a regular at Coors Field to keep him interesting, but he has no clear role and comes with significant injury and performance questions.

This is the first offseason since Rodgers entered pro ball in which he is not an overrated dynasty asset. He made his big-league debut in May, was awful (25 wRC+, 27:4 K:BB) in 25 games and then needed season-ending surgery to repair a torn labrum in his throwing shoulder. Rodgers' approach has been dreadful at times, but he posted excellent numbers (147 wRC+, .273 ISO, 16.9 K%, 8.8 BB%) in a return trip to the Pacific Coast League. Given that it was a 37-game sample and they were using the juiced ball in the already hitter-friendly PCL, we can't say with any confidence that Rodgers has turned a corner. His 31.0 Hard% and 22.1 Soft% were middling marks for a 22-year-old slugger, but his 25.0 LD% and 31.4 Oppo% were impressive and he had his best walk rate since rookie ball. Rodgers should enter spring training as the underdog in a competition with Ryan McMahon and Garrett Hampson for time at second base.

The last time Rodgers' performance appeared to match his pedigree (No. 3 overall in 2015) and dynasty-league hype, he was taking advantage of the extreme hitter-friendly conditions of Lancaster in 2017. He was productive in a return trip to Double-A (129 wRC+), but his aggressive, pull-heavy approach was exposed after a promotion to Triple-A, where he had a 16:1 K:BB in 72 PA. Were it not for the existence of Coors Field, his struggles against quality breaking balls and good sequencing would portend a sub-.250 average in the majors. Rodgers was assigned to the Arizona Fall League, but was scratched from the roster with shoulder tightness. He will return to Triple-A while Garrett Hampson gets a crack at cementing himself as Colorado's second baseman. Rodgers' pedigree will motivate the Rockies to give him big-league opportunities soon, but betting on a quality batting average to go with his plus power is simply a bet on his home park.

This should serve as the all-time reminder of how wonderful it is to hit at Lancaster. In the JetHawks' home park, Rodgers slashed .461/.488/.809 with eight home runs in 26 games. After his promotion to Hartford, however, he was barely a league-average hitter (104 wRC+). Rodgers still carries the status of an elite prospect in most circles, largely due to the hype that surrounded him when he was the No. 3 overall pick in 2015, but he is not without flaws. He hit just .245/.330/.362 against right-handed pitching at Double-A and had 14 walks all season. It remains unclear if he will end up at shortstop or second base long term. He will likely head back to Double-A as a 21-year-old with above-average power and the potential for an above-average hit tool. Rodgers is a better prospect than Trevor Story or DJ LeMahieu were, but he likely won't be able to match LeMahieu's batting average or Story's power. Still, the sum of his tools could equate to the best middle infielder the Rockies have had since Troy Tulowitzki.

Rodgers tied for fifth across all of Low-A and was second among teenagers at the level with 19 home runs. Believed to have an above-average hit tool and plus power when he was selected third overall in the 2015 draft, Rodgers has lived up to his billing so far as a professional, but it is worth noting that he took great advantage of the hitter-friendly home park in Asheville. Rodgers slashed .318/.376/.597 with 13 home runs in 51 home games and .247/.310/.372 with six home runs in 59 road contests. Also of note: Rodgers started 24 games at second base, something that rarely happens at Low-A with high-end prospects who are going to stick at shortstop. The Rockies' affiliates above Low-A are also extremely hitter-friendly, as is Coors Field, so his numbers could be environmentally bolstered for the foreseeable future. Additionally, shortstop is no longer the wasteland it was a couple years ago, so for fantasy purposes, it is not a huge deal if Rodgers ends up at the keystone.

The No. 3 overall pick in last year’s draft handled his first professional assignment well, slashing .273/.340/.420 with three home runs and four steals (on seven attempts) in 37 games in the Pioneer League. He will undoubtedly be compared to the first overall pick, Dansby Swanson, as the two shortstops rise through the minor league ranks, in part because they have somewhat contrasting profiles. Swanson was the safe option out of college, while Rodgers was the high upside prep shortstop teams could dream on. Dynasty league owners will be faced with the same predicament this offseason. Rodgers has more upside in the power department, thanks to a quick bat and loft-generating swing, and it is easy to get excited about him calling Coors Field home someday. Rodgers’ 37:15 K:BB was quite palatable, so batting average should not be a major concern, although Swanson probably has the edge there. The one knock on Rodgers is that he is probably four years away from the big leagues.