It has been a few days since fantasy managers and Yankee fans were dealt the news that Aaron Judge was going to the injured list with a fractured rib. There were concerns that the issue might have involved Thoracic Outlet Syndrome, but Judge himself said that has been ruled out by subsequent medical tests. The reality we as fantasy managers are facing is that we are unlikely to see Judge on a major-league roster until sometime in August once he receives the all-clear to begin normal activities as well as a rehab assignment. By that time, many fantasy leagues will have already been separated into the contenders and pretenders, so fantasy managers must strategize on how to handle this situation moving forward.
As Dave Chappelle taught us in the end days of the Chappelle Show, modern problems require modern solutions:
The Yankees could consider signing Judge's doppleganger, Aaron Gordon, and throwing him in a uniform. I mean, Gordon pulled off the act rather well back in 2018 for Halloween:
After all, Judge was only hitting .206 with a .613 OPS since May 10th, and Gordon's athleticism could at least help him hit .026 with a .316 OPS if pressed into duty.
In all seriousness, fantasy managers will need to get creative to handle what could be anywhere from a two-month absensce to a season-ending issue. Even that assumes Judge returns to the regular season roster in top form, which is assuming a lot. Judge said this recent injury feels like
It has been a few days since fantasy managers and Yankee fans were dealt the news that Aaron Judge was going to the injured list with a fractured rib. There were concerns that the issue might have involved Thoracic Outlet Syndrome, but Judge himself said that has been ruled out by subsequent medical tests. The reality we as fantasy managers are facing is that we are unlikely to see Judge on a major-league roster until sometime in August once he receives the all-clear to begin normal activities as well as a rehab assignment. By that time, many fantasy leagues will have already been separated into the contenders and pretenders, so fantasy managers must strategize on how to handle this situation moving forward.
As Dave Chappelle taught us in the end days of the Chappelle Show, modern problems require modern solutions:
The Yankees could consider signing Judge's doppleganger, Aaron Gordon, and throwing him in a uniform. I mean, Gordon pulled off the act rather well back in 2018 for Halloween:
After all, Judge was only hitting .206 with a .613 OPS since May 10th, and Gordon's athleticism could at least help him hit .026 with a .316 OPS if pressed into duty.
In all seriousness, fantasy managers will need to get creative to handle what could be anywhere from a two-month absensce to a season-ending issue. Even that assumes Judge returns to the regular season roster in top form, which is assuming a lot. Judge said this recent injury feels like the same one he suffered in September of 2019 which helped hold him down to just a single home run in 42 plate appearances that postseason and delayed his start to the 2020 season, even with the overall delay to that season due to the pandemic.
The key language in the coverage of this injury to me is this: "will be re-evaluated in 4-6 weeks." The recent accelerated (and contract-year motivated) recovery of Tarik Skubal might spoil us for timelines, but that nanoscope of Skubal's bone chips is a bit different from a stress fracture of a rib. I am no medical expert, and I have not stayed at a Holiday Inn Express since this past December, but I did find this helpful article on sportsmd.com about rib stress fractures. The article says the following about treatment of the condition:
The key is "relative rest" which means don't do anything that causes significant pain or discomfort. The goal is to let the rib rest so it can heal itself. If stress is continually placed on it, it never gets a chance to heal. This usually means a period of 4-6 weeks without throwing or weightlifting with the affected shoulder.....The time for healing may vary significantly between athletes and must be individualized and discussed with the athlete's physician. If the stress fracture is not visible on x-rays, the athlete might return to full sports participation in 8-12 weeks.
We are 40.3 percent of the way through the current baseball season. The best-case scenario for Judge is that he is back in the Yankee lineup the week of August 3, as that is eight weeks from now. The other end of that timeline is Labor Day weekend, when some leagues are in the playoff season. This all assumes absolutely nothing goes wrong during the rehab and re-evaluation with Judge as well.
So, what do you do as a fantasy manager with what was likely your first round pick or your most expensive purchase at the auction a few months ago? I looked at the situation with different levels of creativity and severity, but at the end of the day, it is your call on how to proceed.
Low-Risk: Keep Judge on your IL and stream hitters off the wire
This strategy requires heavily scraping the free agent pile and schedule looking for players with power upside as well as seven-game weekly schedules. The first-place team in my RotoWire Online Championship is the team with Judge, and that team added Dominic Canzone and Brandon Valenzuela this week. Seattle has a seven-game week this week and Canzone is still making excellent contact this season, while Valenzuela has made the most of his time in the lineup while Alejandro Kirk has been out. Looking into that league's free agent pool now, there is not a single player with double-digit home runs available, but there is some power upside such as Jorge Soler and Paul Goldschmidt. Soler is currently on the IL with an injury but will almost certainly be dealt once he gets back as he is in the final year of his deal and the Angels are once again, well, the Angels. Goldschmidt stands to benefit the most from Judge's absence in the lineup as it opens up regular playing time for him in the top half of the lineup. This strategy obviously is increasingly tougher in 15-team formats. A look at my 15-team mixed league shows the top available free agents for power as Mark Vientos, Ildemaro Vargas and Moises Ballesteros, who each have seven home runs on the season.
Medium-Risk: Trade Aaron Judge
The risk here is that everything is sunshine and rainbows for the recovery process and Judge is back for the final two months of the season and you have just helped your competition with a stretch run lottery ticket. The reward is that lottery tickets rarely even hit two numbers let alone six, so you could get something for potentially nothing if the recovery process slows or gets derailed this summer. What is the harm of putting Judge on the block in your league and shopping him around to see what you can get for him? You will obviously only get cents on the dollar here, but if you have some type of marginal need and a willing partner who is looking to improve their stretch-run chances, at least have the discussion.
Medium-Risk: Trade for Replacements
In many leagues, you can leverage your categorical strengths or roster depth to acquire help. In my home AL-Only League, I am anywhere from first place to third place depending on the day. I have already lost Max Fried and Casey Mize on the pitching side of the ledger, so losing Judge has not helped matters. I was able to package up some roster depth in this keeper league as well as deal away saves I did not need thanks to a signficant lead in the category by sending Christian Moore, Noah Cameron and Lucas Erceg away for Jo Adell on an expiring contract. Adell did just hit 37 home runs last season and is as streaky as they come, so I took the chance there while giving up some upside in Cameron and Moore. You can look for expiring contracts on also-ran teams for potential replacements or simply focus on categorical strengths to look for equitable trades. Trades are the toughest to pull off because they require both a willing partner as well as giving up something to get something, but the work can be worth it because what is on a roster is nearly always better than what is in the weekly free agent pile.
High-Risk: Drop Aaron Judge
This was a discussion Justin Mason and I had on the Sunday episode of The Sleeper and The Bust, and one I am strongly considering in my aforementioned home league because of league rules. We have a rule in our home league which states you cannot pick up free agents who are on the injured list. That would allow me to drop Judge and his unkeepable $56 salary and use his roster spot while waiting out the rehab process. Best-case scenario, Judge is back active at the same time the MLB trade deadline wraps up, so he would essentially become one of the players bid on that one week. I am currently fourth out of 11 teams for remaining FAAB, but that could also change between now and then. However, with several teams still sitting on 60 percent or more of their FAAB budget, that should help push Judge's open-market price up so that he doesn't become more affordable for the offseason.
If your league does allow for injured players to be picked up, there would still be somewhat of a bidding war on the uncertainty of Judge's return, but you could also get at least one of your contenders to spend a good chunk of their FAAB budget and get zero production from the spot for at least two months and likely longer. In other formats, that would then become a precious reserve spot on the bench tied up and it is not inconceivable to imagine someone else dropping Judge and someone else picking him up thus getting even more FAAB money off the table. In either one of these scenarios, you are left with nothing other than the hope you can buy him back later or that your leaguemates spend an irrational amount of their remaining FAAB budget hoping that the best-case scenario for Judge materializes.
At the end of the day, this is simply a tough hit for any fantasy manager. Losing your first-round selection who was projected to be a foundation across the run-production categories and batting average makes an already challenging pursuit of a league title increasingly tougher.
